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Pattern February 11-13 2025

Twister said:
A lot on here thinks though that most models that are not showing Snow or Ice are Wrong. The only ones right are the ones that shows winter weather. They Always Fall head over heels as soon as they pop a Showing of Snow and all the others that don't are then wrong. I don't get it?
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I was attacked for simply pointing out that I wasn't buying what the AI was selling!
Area wide foot plus totals in mid to late Feb!
I want that kind of Miller A or overrunning storm so badly but my father used to tell me crap in 1 hand & wish in the other and see which one fills up first.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's because we generally don't use model data correctly. An ensemble panel or mean for a specific snowstorm threat 7+ days out isn't really all that much better than using a deterministic model, or a woolly worm, or old great-granny's bum knee to predict something.
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That + in a marginal thermal situation like this one always was the 10:1 maps are/were misleading. Combined, it's a pretty unrealistic way to look at an event at that lead time.

But the big thing, like you said, is using model data in an unintended way. Beyond D7, you just can't focus on storm-specific details. H5 trends all the way. AI was showing signs of folding yesterday morning and had already been for several runs, but surface looked good so that was ignored.
 
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Billypg70 said:
I was attacked for simply pointing out that I wasn't buying what the AI was selling!
Area wide foot plus totals in mid to late Feb!
I want that kind of Miller A or overrunning storm so badly but my father used to tell me crap in 1 hand & wish in the other and see which one fills up first.
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Please report any posts that you feel were attacking you. I've tried to go back through the posts you've made over the past couple of days, but I don't see any responses that were personal attacks.
 
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FallsLake said:
12z ICON is different. Still not cold enough for areas from RDU - Charlotte - south. But it now shows more of a miller A (not miller B from 0z) running off the coast.
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Yea it was a big shift south compared to the 00z run. Like I said earlier... I won't be surprised if we windshield wipe back South a little today. It's how these things tend to go.
 
I think we have a lot more model changes coming our way. We did with the last system, where we even had pretty significant changes just a day or so out. This is from RAH last night (before the slightly better 12z runs from ICON & GFS):

Monday through Tuesday: Things get a bit more interesting Monday
into Tuesday as models are finally hinting at a bit more
energy/amplification aloft. A heavy dose of mid-level perturbations
and height falls embedded within a strengthening southern-stream jet
could possibly start spilling into our area Monday through Tuesday.
With some colder air expected to be in place by Tuesday, ptype
concerns may arise. For now, will continue to mention likely rain
with slight chance snow early Tuesday for the northern two-thirds of
the CWA. However, this surely could change as we get closer to early
next week.
 
Tsappfrog20 said:
It kinda like they know more than we do. This is not me saying there always right but they are very good and have the jobs they do for a reason!


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Pshh. The ones who wrote that discussion are not exactly NWS-RAHs leading winter weather experts. Take it for what you will but they are people too and not all are as engaged or spend nearly as much time looking at this as you'd think during a shift.
 
1300m said:
Pshh. The ones who wrote that discussion are not exactly NWS-RAHs leading winter weather experts. Take it for what you will but they are people too and not all are as engaged or spend nearly as much time looking at this as you'd think during a shift.
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I not saying they aren’t wrong but I have seen them in person work and do this stuff so I tend to believe them and their thoughts and opinions on what is going on.


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Tsappfrog20 said:
I not saying they aren’t wrong but I have seen them in person work and do this stuff so I tend to believe them and their thoughts and opinions on what is going on.


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Well I've worked with many of them and presented/trained some of them on winter weather global patterns (NAO/PNA etc.) so I have a pretty good idea of who knows what. Take it for what you will. Badgett / Locklear / Blaes / Petro / Strickler are the ones you want to follow IMO.
 
FWIW GFS looked improved for anyone along or NW of 85 in NC..... Winter Hit, crappy Tidbit Maps, All of that would be ICE or Sleet though looking at 850s. Screenshot 2025-02-05 121402.png
Im not even really sure how it comes to that Solution as No one south of Line of numbers here is below 32 for majority of the event Salisbury/Statesville would bounce 33-34 Verbatim lol
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
FWIW GFS looked improved for anyone along or NW of 85 in NC..... Winter Hit, crappy Tidbit Maps, All of that would be ICE or Sleet though looking at 850s. View attachment 167864
Im not even really sure how it comes to that Solution as No one south of Line of numbers here is below 32 for majority of the event Salisbury/Statesville would bounce 33-34 Verbatim lol
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Well at the very least, the ICON and GFS did shift back south some. Not enough for most but another tick back south and border peeps and foothills "might" could get back in the game
 
RBR71 said:
Well at the very least, the ICON and GFS did shift back south some. Not enough for most but another tick back south and border peeps and foothills "might" could get back in the game
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Only need about 100 miles lol Linwood to Lynchburg is 150 "Rail Miles" I remember from working at Norfolk Southern. Main line pretty much follows 85 then HWY 29 from Pomona yard in Greensboro
 
12z Icon, Can and GFS have frozen in Triad Wed into Thurs. Its slop fest ice mixed with cold rain. This HP is not to far off , 50-100 miles, from locking in enough to not changeover from frozen. qpf will be plentiful to cause a pretty decent ice storm.
Also Noticed 12z GFS dumps the cold in here post 240 hours out through 360 with HPs sliding through to our NE. I Can see what SD and 1300 were saying about the 20th- last week Feb, probably having a descent window to whip up an opportunity.
I went cliff diving this morning, so hopefully I have to pull my foot out of my mouth before Feb is done,
 
Billypg70 said:
I was attacked for simply pointing out that I wasn't buying what the AI was selling!
Area wide foot plus totals in mid to late Feb!
I want that kind of Miller A or overrunning storm so badly but my father used to tell me crap in 1 hand & wish in the other and see which one fills up first.
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If one don't like snow or speaks against it and says it's gonna be warm and or Rain you will get attacked. I haven't been on here long But I've seen that for sure in the short time I've been on here.
 
packfan98 said:
Please report any posts that you feel were attacking you. I've tried to go back through the posts you've made over the past couple of days, but I don't see any responses that were personal attacks.
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I reported one other day with some bad Nasty language, But evidently nothing was done. If it was anyone else throwing out those kind of words they would be banned for good, regardless if they left a letter out. Everyone knows what it said
 
Twister said:
If one don't like snow or soeaks against it and says it's gonna be warm and or Rain you will get attacked. I haven't been on here long But I've seen that for sure in the short time I've been on here.
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Report the "attacks" if they exist, otherwise stop spewing these pot stirring comments
 
RBR71 said:
Report the "attacks" if they exist, otherwise stop spewing these pot stirring comments
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Well how about do something about the Nasty Language that I REPORTED!! If you want things reported then do something about it. Y'all can people for the wrong stuff a lot of times. But if it's someone that throws out credible weather stuff nothing is fine to them
 
Twister said:
Well how about do something about the Nasty Language that I REPORTED!! If you want things reported then do something about it. Y'all can people for the wrong stuff a lot of times. But if it's someone that throws out credible weather stuff nothing is fine to them
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I don't know about that report, if nothing was done as you say, the post should still be there. Report it again and I'll check
 
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SD said:
I rejected the report. It's hard to take a report seriously when the reporter is on here trolling and singling out the person they reported
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Yeah so see it's ok for someone to say The F word on here where women and kids lurk on here. That's sounds about right!! But people get banned all time for "Trolling" yeah ok
 
5 feet of snow anyone? Heck of a Euro run!
1740009600-Ol3zI8XfQsI.png
 
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