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Pattern February 11-13 2025

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
I think this is heading where I was hoping it wouldn’t….an ice storm for the CAD areas.
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Yep 0z Icon is a big ole fat Ice storm in cad. Amazing how all models lined right up together today staring with 12z euro suite. This will mix all the way up past DC. Trending toward an amped up storm right through KY Coalfields. Guess we will see if we can sneak one out after this. Got about a 7-10 day window with mjo favorable. But its getting late outside elevation post Valentines day.
Was hoping for a nice hit before spring rolls in.
Atleast the ole NW trend came back. Amazing how that worked out this year lol.
 
Hate to say it but once this storm got inside the 400 hour range the CFS was very consistent in showing a nothing burger other than rain for the southeast. Never budged. Quite impressive. It really is whatever model shows no snow or the least amount of snow that ends up victorious in the end. I will never believe in the EURO AI again.
 
Bigedd09 said:
Hate to say it but once this storm got inside the 400 hour range the CFS was very consistent in showing a nothing burger other than rain for the southeast. Never budged. Quite impressive. It really is whatever model shows no snow or the least amount of snow that ends up victorious in the end. I will never believe in the EURO AI again.
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A lot on here thinks though that most models that are not showing Snow or Ice are Wrong. The only ones right are the ones that shows winter weather. They Always Fall head over heels as soon as they pop a Showing of Snow and all the others that don't are then wrong. I don't get it?
 
Twister said:
A lot on here thinks though that most models that are not showing Snow or Ice are Wrong. The only ones right are the ones that shows winter weather. They Always Fall head over heels as soon as they pop a Showing of Snow and all the others that don't are then wrong. I don't get it?
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I could understand why people were optimistic because we had the EPS and AI on our side. The AI has been decent all year but it obviously has an issue with the severity of the ridge
 
Twister said:
A lot on here thinks though that most models that are not showing Snow or Ice are Wrong. The only ones right are the ones that shows winter weather. They Always Fall head over heels as soon as they pop a Showing of Snow and all the others that don't are then wrong. I don't get it?
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I disagree with this. "The most" on here you reference don't buy into anything. They simply look for opportunities to track, part of the hobby. Overwhelming Majority know, Rug Pulls are very common. This past chase was setup by hoping a cold dump would align more east in our favor. We all knew it was a razor thin opportunity and just as possible for the dump to be to to far west to do us any good. Sure enough thats what evolved yesterday and here we are today. No biggie. If the same scenario popped up again on models days 10-15, we would all be watching it again to see if it yielded an opportunity.
 
Twister said:
A lot on here thinks though that most models that are not showing Snow or Ice are Wrong. The only ones right are the ones that shows winter weather. They Always Fall head over heels as soon as they pop a Showing of Snow and all the others that don't are then wrong. I don't get it?
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Being optimistic and following a potential threat isn't "falling head over heels". Lol wish we were as all knowing as some of you think you are. Geez it's a weather forum and people enjoy discussing it
 
Pilotwx said:
All models are now in line , no winter storms this week . Snow to sleet to FZ to just cold rain, next it will be 60’s and T’storms. Please take this pinned thread down, it jinxed us.🥶🥵
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lol. Threads started now two weeks before the month gets here and 10 days out after a couple of fantasy runs. You need to get with in 2025 lol. Hope you doing well
 
Twister said:
A lot on here thinks though that most models that are not showing Snow or Ice are Wrong. The only ones right are the ones that shows winter weather. They Always Fall head over heels as soon as they pop a Showing of Snow and all the others that don't are then wrong. I don't get it?
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I disagree. I think a lot are new at following and just get excited. I have been a snow and ice contractor for over 35 years now. I will say twenty years ago if the models showed it most of the time it verified some type of a storm. Models now are so inconsistent a lot of times until five or less days out.
As a contractor I just want to see the potential so we can get some things in place just in case models verify which last four years they have not in most cases. I will say many have said read more and post less and some don’t. There will always be a model that seems to hold out hope until the last day or two. I appreciate all those on here that actually know a lot and not just posting just to be posting. They have helped out a lot as some other Mets that we follow or stay in contact with.

In the southeast it is always hard to get wintry weather so when it comes just enjoy it as the next day could be totally different. Feb 28, 2009 60s next day plowing snow in Winston Salem.
 
Can we atleast all join together and root against the MA/NE now ? Like take this thing to the great lakes. or better yet, I want them to sit on the RN/SN line for 12hrs and end up with an inch in the citys after short ranges give them 12-18". And hopefully they look right to their NW and see theyve lost yet again, Altoona and all the farm country lucks out. I want it to be consistent dream runs the entire next week for them too before the screwing so its epic pain and I can laugh harder.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Can we atleast all join together and root against the MA/NE now ? Like take this thing to the great lakes. or better yet, I want them to sit on the RN/SN line for 12hrs and end up with an inch in the citys after short ranges give them 12-18". And hopefully they look right to their NW and see theyve lost yet again, Altoona and all the farm country lucks out. I want it to be consistent dream runs the entire next week for them too before the screwing so its epic pain and I can laugh harder.
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I don't get rooting against other regions honestly. They're about to have a banner winter, good for them. I'm starting to want to plan a trip up there to be a part of it.
 
SnowNiner said:
I don't get rooting against other regions honestly. They're about to have a banner winter, good for them. I'm starting to want to plan a trip up there to be a part of it.
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They have a "Banner" year every 5yrs. Its their arrogance, they dont even track 2-4" events up there bc its not good enough while this board would shut down for a board wide 2-4" event. Its like Listening to a Chiefs / Lakers fan talk about how hard their life is when they ultimately win one way or another. Maybe not big every year but their arrogance is disgusting, but thats majority of ppl North of Lynchburg anyway personality wise. They look down on all of us down here and think we all live in trailers and use hay to pick our teeth while theyre some educated rich folk. So yea, its a regional hate. "omg we havent had 3 feet in 6yrs this is terrible"
 
SnowNiner said:
I don't get rooting against other regions honestly. They're about to have a banner winter, good for them. I'm starting to want to plan a trip up there to be a part of it.
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Yeah especially regions that average feet of snow . People here seem to think they are owed snow because it snows up there. News flash the climate up there is very different than the one down here
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
They have a "Banner" year every 5yrs. It’s their arrogance, they dont even track 2-4" events up there bc its not good enough while this board would shut down for a board wide 2-4" event. It’s like Listening to a Chiefs / Lakers fan talk about how hard their life is when they ultimately win one way or another. Maybe not big every year but their arrogance is disgusting, but thats majority of ppl North of Lynchburg anyway personality wise. They look down on all of us down here and think we all live in trailers and use hay to pick our teeth while theyre some educated rich folk. So yea, its a regional hate. "omg we havent had 3 feet in 6yrs this is terrible"
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Idk reading their forums I never got this vibe
 
LickWx said:
Speaking of looking down on small snow events weren’t folks looking down on the last one because it didn’t bring much snow? Only an inch ? If you’re too picky you won’t be happy …
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Humans complain no matter what
 
I'm going to start a clouds and sunshine thread so that people can participate who don't want to talk about models and potential.

All the comments about such and such was never a threat and should never have been discussed can live over there, where you can discuss things like cloud shapes, sprinkles, and starry nights.
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm going to start a clouds and sunshine thread so that people can participate who don't want to talk about models and potential.

All the comments about such and such was never a threat and should never have been discussed can live over there, where you can discuss things like cloud shapes, sprinkles, and starry nights.
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Start me a warm day chasing thread
 
I won't be shocked if this storm ticks back south some today, that's usually what happens about the time you've think you lost the storm.

Most of us are still toast though, but NC/VA boarder shouldn't waive the white flag yet.
 
I don't root against other regions but I have seen many posts in those regions over the years where they are pissed when we get snow and "rob" them of their entitled snow. They actively root against a southern storm except when it goes up an dumps a foot or more there after we get our 1-2" with freezing rain at the end
 
Bigedd09 said:
Feels like we been burned by the EPS so many times this winter
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It's because we generally don't use model data correctly. An ensemble panel or mean for a specific snowstorm threat 7+ days out isn't really all that much better than using a deterministic model, or a woolly worm, or old great-granny's bum knee to predict something.
 
I said before I didn’t see much hope besides a legit ice threat in NC/SC. The line between snow, ice, or rain is already thin enough around here. You start pumping the SER and that thin line becomes almost nonexistent. I never really saw much hope for snow when you have that much ridging over top. That was a recipe for at best getting ZR. The other thing is ridges, whether it’s the SER, WAR, or subtropical, tend to strengthen the closer you get to verification so you want it to be muted as long as possible. At this point if you’re south of Richmond and not sitting at 5,000ft it’s likely the usual 34 degree rain that we are used to in the CAD regions. Nobody does it better than we do on planet earth.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's because we generally don't use model data correctly. An ensemble panel or mean for a specific snowstorm threat 7+ days out isn't really all that much better than using a deterministic model, or a woolly worm, or old great-granny's bum knee to predict something.
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It’s really because people remember the old days when if the EPS and even the GEFS sniffed something out in the day 7-12 range consistently you probably had a legit shot at something. But like Slim Charles from the Wire said, “the thing about the old days … they the old days.” Now even ensembles aren’t worth much post day 7 at best. Ensembles are the new deterministic models where their sweet spot is the medium range stuff, globals are the new short range and even they aren’t that great then either depending on the setup, and short range might as well not be looked at past 24 hours on a good day.
 
As of this morning’s updated AFD RDU is still mentioning the possibility of some snow. Mainly rain but said things could surely change once we get closer


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Who's chasing?

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