Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Dang I expected it to look much worse than this based on the comments.
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Pattern February 11-13 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Yeah those 850s over NC today are definitely way off lol
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Looks almost like the model is picking up on gravity waves
Looks like we are gonna take a step back on the EPS per H5 as well
Bigedd09
Member
The warming trend has been quite evident on the EURO suites the last couple runs
Not sure much has changed from yesterday. A winter event looks like a legit threat for I40/I85 NW...for us bottom feeders that are SE of that we will need a lot of luck...as we usually do.
How much worse can it get lol. I also think it's comical that in this storm everyone is using 10:1 maps all of a sudden. #ptypeProblems
But we got GFS/ICON/CMC on our side? That's not bad?
Kind of funny...it was flipped yesterday and yes I would still prefer to have Euro than the other 3 combined.
NCSNOW
Member
NCSNOW
Member
We should have proposed Tariffs on Europe instead of NA. Where we went wrong lol
rburrel2
Member
And just as you'd expect, the Euro AI is flatter/colder... can't make this stuff up.
It looks fine for day 7-8...verbatim looks like GFS/CMC blend.
This is the most rain being depicted since Helene… it’s a nonstop barrage of cold rain 
Tsappfrog20
Member
Bigedd09
Member
We would've been digging out feet of snow if half of this could've happened in January
SnowNiner
Member
Lol, did the GFS and the Euro just flip?
Tsappfrog20
Member
Worth noting to the euro graphcast model has been consistent with a north/amped solution similar to the 12z euro as well
Tarheelwx
Member
The AI looked like a really big hit for I85 (maybe a little bit southeast of there) north and west. Having said that, there would be a very sharp gradient on the SE edge and ice may be a bigger issue than snow.
TW
TW
packfan98
Moderator
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Not sure I see how this would play into anyone's favor and definitely don't see anything south of 40 working out at the moment.
SnowNiner
Member
Man, the EPS really wants to keep the trough out west, with the SE ridge/WAR hanging around doesn't it? Even with all the blocking, I don't like that at all. Back to rooting for the GEFS? Ugh.
NCSNOW
Member
Somewhere between DC and the Upstate SC, some poor neck of the woods is going to get hammered with Freezing rain. Its apparent this is a long duration precip event. And someone will jackpot biggly on the snow. But someone is gonna jackpot on the frzng rain as well. We should have a pretty good general idea by time the work week ends, early part of the weekend.
All we need is the south shift we saw a few weeks ago that made it snow on the alligators. That’s probably not asking a lot. Either way, it looks like we could have several shots at winter weather over the next 2-3 weeks
NCHighCountryWX
Member
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The backside deformation (?) band looks interesting. Hard to tell with the limited maps it has, but that could be a situation where it wraps cold air back around so places that are mixing with sleet / ZR go back over to snow, too.
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, that's great and all, but it's essentially by itself. Sometime in the next 2 days it will fold. That's my guess.
The great and powerful AI doesn’t fold
packfan98
Moderator
From the AI run. Here's where the 850 line hangs out. Just south of I-85 from most of the storm.
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I wonder what the chances are of repeating the big Feb 89 storm because the footprints look similar
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ducketta27
Member
Anyone thinking about the February 9th-12, 2014 storm? ....This doesn't mean squat... but the CPC temp and precip outlooks look almost identical. Super cold in the west, above average warm in the southeast, above normal precip almost everywhere.... (of course, only to be changed a day or two later in the 6-10 day outlook)... Still, eerie.
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Really what truly makes or breaks this is how much we load up the energy back west (the more, the more we suck, the flatter and weaker, the better) and how much confluence we have hanging just above over the NE US, we were headed the wrong direction but the 12z brought that confluent feature back). Difficult setup here could go either way. 1989 keeps getting brought up but it’s extremely similar to this, and a warmer version of Feb 2014 at H5 