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Pattern February 11-13 2025

BullCityWx said:
Storm I’m thinking about:

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Courtesy of @Webberweather53
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I’m curious as to how things looked in the Northeast prior to this storm. I remember it was very warm here in the Carolinas with widespread 70s and 80s on the 15th and 16th leading up to it. Obviously there was very strong CAD that set up as the 17th saw temperatures falling throughout out the day
 
Chazwin said:
I’m curious as to how things looked in the Northeast prior to this storm. I remember it was very warm here in the Carolinas with widespread 70s and 80s on the 15th and 16th leading up to it. Obviously there was very strong CAD that set up as the 17th saw temperatures falling throughout out the day
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Earliest 80 degree days ever were from Feb that year. Warmest day until today for today was in feb of 1927.. We all know what happened in March of 1927. It ain't over yet
 
weather bubba said:
The KRDU afternoon discussion mentioned the word snow for next Tuesday saying this area would be on the cold side of the boundary that will set up. It is early in the game but this shows the NWS Raleigh office seems concerned about the potential this storm could bring.
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My point forecast from them has rain / snow in the forecast. Pretty bold at D7 with record highs today!

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The GFS is still flopping around a bit much to accurately gauge whether the wedge is getting stronger or weaker.
TW
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is headed the wrong direction fast on the EPS, and the 18z continues it. EPS this year has been absolute fools gold for snow means View attachment 167825View attachment 167824
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Just getting into that magical D6 ensemble window where legit trends start to emerge. This is why I’ve given up tracking the fools gold as you so aptly put it of D10 anything.
 
1300m said:
Just getting into that magical D6 ensemble window where legit trends start to emerge. This is why I’ve given up tracking the fools gold as you so aptly put it of D10 anything.
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Isn't this when the other one two weeks ago started heading South? lol I see what you're saying....this isn't the range you want to start seeing negative
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Isn't this when the other one two weeks ago started heading South? lol I see what you're saying....this isn't the range you want to start seeing negative
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That’s what I’m saying - the real trends start around this time. All these fantasy runs are basically meaningless. The EPS and Euro even had a blip run around D4 that still fooled me but better than being fooled for a week plus lol.
 
From what I could tell, the 18z AI stayed pretty similar. It looked like temps dropped below freezing for western NC (probably from Raleigh west) and maybe getting down in the upstate just a bit. From the freebie maps, I didn't see any big changes.
TW
 
Tarheelwx said:
From what I could tell, the 18z AI stayed pretty similar. It looked like temps dropped below freezing for western NC (probably from Raleigh west) and maybe getting down in the upstate just a bit. From the freebie maps, I didn't see any big changes.
TW
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How can the AI be so steady in the light of all other guidance heading north? What is it seeing?
 
From what I saw on the cheap maps, the AI had surface temps aob freezing for the triad for the entire event. If that happens, it's a major winter storm in those areas regardless of the form of precip.
TW
 
i'm more north than all of yall and even i'm not really feeling this thing. i also don't think this is really some "long duration" event... it will consolidate as we get closer. best shot of token flakes likely on the back end of that
 
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