Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

[rburrel2]

Hrrr says it's snowing in the upstate Monday morning, (if the column can saturate high enough... looks a little iffy). Here's the sounding for Clemson, SC.

 

[rburrel2]

7am Monday, end of the 12z Hrrr Run.

 

[rburrel2]

If the Rgem and Hrrr are accurate this could be a borderline warning level event for the foothills/upstate. Definitely advisory level as depicted.

 

[rburrel2]

06z Rgem Fram Ice...

 

[rburrel2]

RAP is in agreement with Rgem/hrrr as well...

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Gonna be precip dependent. Dews are pretty cold.

 

[Rosie]

Light dusting last night.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

This event really sneaking up on us .. one thing I have noticed is dews really are pretty cold .. this has sneaky potential .. I trust RGEM out of anyone but the fact that all the short range guidance is aware of some sort of winter mix is interesting

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

This event really sneaking up on us .. one thing I have noticed is dews really are pretty cold .. this has sneaky potential .. I trust RGEM out of anyone but the fact that all the short range guidance is aware of some sort of winter mix is interesting

The RHEM is always too cold in these type of marginal set ups. The NAM has the best thermals in these kinds of set ups IMO

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

The RHEM is always too cold in these type of marginal set ups. The NAM has the best thermals in these kinds of set ups IMO

RGEM did amazing with our thermal profiles the past few events I personally like an RGEM and HRRR combo at the moment

 

[TeachLesley]

Add the FV3 to the in crowd

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

RGEM did amazing with our thermal profiles the past few events I personally like an RGEM and HRRR combo at the moment

I agree it has done very well. But the events this year weren’t marginal. This one was. Last year the RGEM was way too cold with all the marginal events. We ended with 33-34 rains.

 

[Tarheel1]

How’s the icon and RAP?

 

[Ollie Williams]

I agree it has done very well. But the events this year weren’t marginal. This one was. Last year the RGEM was way too cold with all the marginal events. We ended with 33-34 rains.

I'd be shocked if this were more than an I-85 northward climatologically favored Ice event from the similarities I've seen in past events. I've posted earlier that we usually bust with ice in two ways:

1. Models have a difficult time estimating the precipitation freezing at the 925 layer, and it ends up as sleet (January 2022, February 2014)
2. Temperatures are too marginal at 32 degrees and very little can accrete (December 2020, February 2021)

After tossing the RGEM/CMC bias as an outlier, we're dealing with a largely CAA event at the surface without a cold high to the north... and in concurrent with a lack of precipitation, I'd argue that this will likely be close to a non-event.

 

[KyloG]

We aren't buying the RGEM?

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Model soundings depict a stout dry layer in the mid-levels including the DGZ (For the Triad). Unless that changes, don't count on snowflakes.

 

[Ollie Williams]

We aren't buying the RGEM?

View attachment 112799

No

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

We aren't buying the RGEM?

View attachment 112799

Everyone knows the wedge builds in from the East

 

[Ollie Williams]

Model soundings depict a stout dry layer in the mid-levels including the DGZ (For the Triad). Unless that changes, don't count on snowflakes.

Yup, the 850s are too warm and there's not even any WAA.

 

[rburrel2]

Guys the NAM is only warmer at the surface b/c it doesn't have much precip. It would wetbulb in the upper 20's like the rgem if it started showing a solid precip shield.