I'll say this too.... in the past, when models have busted badly being too warm in the short range it's typically related to not modeling dew points/wetbulbing accurately and as a result wetbulbing is way under modeled. This happened in 2015 with an in-situ wedge event.
This could be the same kind of sneaky set up where models are showing a lot of 32-33 degree light rain but people under consistent precip wind up wetbulbing down to 28-29 instead. The dewpoint depressions being shown Monday morning certainly support that possibility. Here are my notes for the 2015 storm.
February 16, 2015 | 1 inch of sleet 1/10th inch of ice | 27 | huge bust in our favor, hi-res models at 31/32 for low temp and freezing rain to rain day before event, got 90% sleet and just a little freezing rain, wetbulbed to around 27 and temp was still 31 as final band came through |