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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

I guess my point is boundary layer may not be as big of an issue as you would think for foothills/piedmont of NC/SC if we can get precip in here Monday morning.

There no WAA at the surface. winds stay out of the northeast Monday. If we're sitting at roughly 32-35 surface temps with dewpoints in the 20-23 range at 7am like the models are showing, then it stands to reason our area could wetbulb down to 28-30 degree's if we get some moderate rates of precip. Then slowly warming to freezing with latent heat release from freezing rain and/or solar radiation as the day progresses if precip slacks off.

The key here being we need moderate rates to show up on the models. Right now they don't have that and it's why they're warming the surface to 36-38.

A few more clicks on the models towards a stronger and heavier precip shield and we might have something to track here.
 
18z GFS actually showing some 1 inch kuchera snow totals for the NC foothills. This precip has trended dramatically west/north on the last 3 GFS runs... one more click of similar magnitude and game on.
 

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rburrel2 said:
Euro had some really dry air in the upstate Monday morning. Clemson surface temp /dew on the euro is 35/22 with precip breaking out but very spotty/light. Think if we get some heavier rate trends you’re gonna see wetbulbing below freezing across the upstate.
Click to expand...
What are the soundings for the Pickens county airport klqk
 
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All-in on the 18z ICON! modernweenie

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Nam will do good with Monday when in range. I wouldn’t overlook that sneaky Monday system


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metwannabe said:
Birdman hacked the 06z Euro or it's been smoking something
Click to expand...
We are close to getting something late Sunday into Monday initial cold and dry sfc with fairly strong waa over top I wouldn't be surprised to see some patchy fzdz or light sleet overnight Sunday that goes to rain Monday morning. The 6z Euro closing off an 850 low along the beaches is really interesting to see if we can attempt to CAA enough in the 925-850 levels to end as snow
 
When the Euro and RDPS speak, You best be listening. My new ER rule in place of the EE rule. Be interesting to see what Euro says here in a few. This is novelty stuff, but another case to see if they both hit a dart on the dartboard , before other models catch on.
 
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