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Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System

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Just wanted to say thanks to everyone for the pbp analysis of these storms. There are some very intelligent/ dedicated folks on this forum and am glad to be on here to get everyone's insight. If this one don't work out, hopefully mid February through the rest of winter will be a grand slam.

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ILMRoss said:
Actually pretty concerned about this. Every model kicked the ULL out east faster. Adjustments to the northern stream won’t mean anything if the ULL is in Cuba. Ugh
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Agreed. Despite the great northern stream trends, individual GEFS members have trended worse (less snow hits) with that quicker ULL progression. Hate that this has been the trend among all guidance.

We're now rooting for a slower or northwest trend or with the ULL which isn't a terrible thing given five days out, I guess ??‍♂️
 
Makes sense the ULL is getting squashed a bit northern stream has trended far west enough to have that influence, but the further west it gets, the more the southern stream wave itself would want to get “pulled back”. Slowing down the ULL would help out as well
 
It’s definitely close enough for someone to get NAMd in the long range.

Definitely a surprising big shift from the GFS … but I don’t trust the GFS that much as a model in recent years.. its performance is definitely lacking compared to the euro and CMC in the skill score category.. if we see similar trends with the euro then I would feel better about this drastic change being a legitimate wrench in the flow that the models are picking up on.

Let’s see a few more cycles. Certainly still far enough out for some movement
 
From RAH (basically not likely, but maybe):

"It remains to be seen just how far south the track
system will track with the latest 00z/01 run trending towards a more
suppressed track. Additionally, the top/lead ensemble cluster
suggests the northern edge of the precip shield may just clip
southern portions of the state Sunday night and into Monday. In this
case, the predominate precip type looks to be rain, with precip
exiting the area Monday afternoon/evening. However, if the eventual
track of the low is farther north, there would be a potential for
rain to changeover to snow before ending as the cold air pours into
the Carolinas in the wake of the low deepening of the SE US coast."
 
Amazing that we’re going to end up seeing suppression being ultimately what puts the final nail in the coffin on this…yes I am one of the ones who says suppression is the last thing we should ever worry about and I still believe that general. I hate to say it, but if we had any small push back from the SER, it would have done wonders.
 
Chazwin said:
Amazing that we’re going to end up seeing suppression being ultimately what puts the final nail in the coffin on this…yes I am one of the ones who says suppression is the last thing we should ever worry about and I still believe that general. I hate to say it, but if we had any small push back from the SER, it would have done wonders.
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The SER is looking more like a Mid-Atlantic one by the time the system rolls through. There's no resisting that.
gfs_z500a_atl_20.png
 
Euro keeping me interested...

All the models have the southern ull wrapping up with a bout of strengthening Sunday night as a lobe slings up and around the base of its trough. The gfs is the least agressive with this and thus has no precip making in to the upstate/nc mountains.

But the ICON/CMC/Euro all have qpf in this area Sunday night/Monday morning. Also this band of precip will essentially stall and pivot as the ull gets shunted to the South, so there could be a stationary band hammering an area for several hours. Thermal profiles are marginal to say the least, but boundary layer conditions aren't horrible and there's no real warm nose.

It's something to watch because I'd be shocked if the precip doesn't make it this far north, and if it does, I think hi-res models are going to go to town a little more with dynamic cooling assuming the band is heavy which looking at the strength of the 5h low and the fact it's deepening for a while, seems like a possibility.

Screen Shot 2024-02-01 at 6.56.40 AM.png
 
KyloG said:
Good news is maybe we won't have to deal with inches of rain.

Euro abandoned this a couple of days ago, we should have listened.

View attachment 144702
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Correct. When the EPS totally lost the idea of northern stream injection and enhancement it was a huge red flag to me. EPS isn't perfect, but it's a lot better at having subsets of solutions than the GEFS is, so when it totally dried up I was definitely concerned. Still, it was right to track it and why not - not like we have any other hope other than another pattern chase (which I loathe). I said going into this winter we'd have at least a couple heart breakers before we ever got anything, so I think we have met that criteria. Sure would be nice to get a bone soon.
 
1300m said:
Correct. When the EPS totally lost the idea of northern stream injection and enhancement it was a huge red flag to me. EPS isn't perfect, but it's a lot better at having subsets of solutions than the GEFS is, so when it totally dried up I was definitely concerned. Still, it was right to track it and why not - not like we have any other hope other than another pattern chase (which I loathe). I said going into this winter we'd have at least a couple heart breakers before we ever got anything, so I think we have met that criteria. Sure would be nice to get a bone soon.
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I don't remember the last Euro op run that had anything for our area...if ever.
 
we probably have a model suite or two left in the clip to see if anything changes. the trough in question began landfalling in Cali last night and was sampled in 00z (bad) but it's a huge system and there's still a lot that has to come ashore (verdict still out) if you want to play the sampling card

a weaker, more strung out system will be faster, full stop. meteorological fact. i don't think it's getting squashed by the northern vort because previous model iterations like that electric 00z icon a few nights ago showed a constructive interference was possible. by the end, ok, there's an argument that it gets squashed because the ull goes into cuba and that is rare and needs a lot to line up for it to happen. but it leaking south and being weaker in the first place is allowing that to happen. take the northern depiction of yesterday's 00z gfs coupled with the ull strength/location of yesterday's 12z gfs and this thread could be 12 pages longer.

no reason to expect the weaker trend to stop this round though. i'd be pleasantly surprised if it did. thems the breaks.

edit: 12z nam might be strengthening and slowing the ull if you want a shred of hope, if you're into that kind of thing ?‍?
 
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