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Feb 26-29 snow showers/clippers

Webberweather53 said:
There's some local sinking in that profile (I presume that's a local anomaly) but the low-mid levels are certainly unstable/moist enough and the melting layer is pretty shallow, or at least just shallow enough that if you had a heavy burst of precip, you could see some graupel &/or snow. I certainly tend to think the best chance for snow/graupel outside the mountains is going to be north of Atlanta in GA thru upstate SC into NC.

DCVA, CAPE, & CIN look more favorable in GA & SC but I think steeper mid-level lapse rates, particularly near the DGZ, might be even more key to generating convective snow showers in NC & upstate SC. Seeing mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8C/km in concert w/ other large-scale forcing(s) for ascent is definitely very conducive to producing convection

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That looks good for upstate sc
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Same plume of Steep mid level lapse rates that produced Convective snow across isolated portions of the country right (KS for example) ?
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To a certain extent yes, but in the case of Kansas, the long axis of the laterally translating snow band was parallel to its propagation, effectively training over the same areas whereas here it will be basically orthogonal.
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's some local sinking in that profile (I presume that's a local anomaly) but the low-mid levels are certainly unstable/moist enough and the melting layer is pretty shallow, or at least just shallow enough that if you had a heavy burst of precip, you could see some graupel &/or snow. I certainly tend to think the best chance for snow/graupel outside the mountains is going to be north of Atlanta in GA thru upstate SC into NC.

DCVA, CAPE, & CIN look more favorable in GA & SC but I think steeper mid-level lapse rates, particularly near the DGZ, might be even more key to generating convective snow showers in NC & upstate SC. Seeing mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8C/km in concert w/ other large-scale forcing(s) for ascent is definitely very conducive to producing convection

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Those lapse rates over mby ???
 
Webberweather53 said:
To a certain extent yes, but in the case of Kansas, the long axis of the laterally translating snow band was parallel to its propagation, effectively training over the same areas whereas here it will be basically orthogonal.
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Yeah I would trade that big February 2014 winter storm for that intense Convective snow band
 
Clem282340 said:
Do you think upstate might see something
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Anyone from Georgia through the upstate and into southwestern and even central NC as it looks rn has a chance at seeing some sort of convective something tomorrow.. true details on who gets what will all depend on how this all plays out in a now casting sort of way .. best chance seems to be in NC with how the bands looks to set up but again we can’t say for sure until the bands actually form
 
I'd rather be in Crossville, Tn, than Murphy NC for the clipper systems we're about to get. Not to say you won't see snow there...
 
SETNwx said:
I'd rather be in Crossville, Tn, than Murphy NC for the clipper systems we're about to get. Not to say you won't see snow there...
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Well, I'm put here until Saturday lol. I'm sure we will do good. Crossville TN will also do well but a few models do have Murphy getting some heavy bands if modeled right
 
000 FXUS62 KGSP 280305 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1005 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Aside from the mountain snow totals, the other major issue will be rapidly steepening mid-level lapse rates as the upper shortwave crosses the southern Appalachians Friday. Anticipate plenty of 7+ deg C/km 850 to 500 mb lapse rates transiting the region.

??
 
accu35 said:
Well, I'm put here until Saturday lol. I'm sure we will do good. Crossville TN will also do well but a few models do have Murphy getting some heavy bands if modeled right
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just remember, Murphy is kinda in the same downsloping boat as Asheville, NC.. Of course the 2,000 ft elevation helps some of course.
 
Yesterday's clipper came after some warm days with warmer ground temps and it started snowing in the upper 30s. Better ground temps before any moisture going tonight though SW winds will warm things up ahead of the clipper, hoping for more snow than mix. I'm just above the elevation MRX likes for snow here.20200228_000040.jpg
 
John1122 said:
Yesterday's clipper came after some warm days with warmer ground temps and it started snowing in the upper 30s. Better ground temps before any moisture going tonight though SW winds will warm things up ahead of the clipper, hoping for more snow than mix. I'm just above the elevation MRX likes for snow here.View attachment 36481
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you're always gold, in these marginal northern stream events...
 
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