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Wintry Feb 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Potential

HSVweather said:
Interesting to watch as hard to gauge the shallow cold air, could shift further south into north MS
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Although Ice totals me be a little high with the Canadian, it appears to be holding serve with an Ice Storm over the mid-south. Been fairly consistent with its output and area of focus I would like to believe.
 
BufordWX said:
18z Nam is much colder at both the surface and upper levels as well as faster with pushing the front in. Good trends for better snow chances today.View attachment 111977View attachment 111978
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I hope we get buried ? I wanna see a foot all along the 44 corridor

I should mention the TWC app hasn't budged on me being around that for 2 days now
 
Memphis WFO recognizing the Southeastward shift of recent models in their afternoon AFD:

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Looking increasing likely
that a winter storm impact parts of the Mid-South during this time
period. The arctic front will continue sagging southeast
overnight Wednesday. 12z model runs are substantially colder than
previous editions and this forecast reflects that. By 12z
Thursday the front should already be SE of Memphis. Cold air will
deepen behind the front causing a changeover to wintry
precipitation starting Wednesday evening across extreme NE AR and
the MO Bootheel spreading gradually SE overnight into JBR area and
NW TN by morning. A deep layer of warm air on top of a shallow
layer cold air will result in mainly freezing rain initially. A
potent mid level shortwave and associated surface wave will move
NE along the front bringing another round of precipitation to the
area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Right now we are looking
at a quarter inch of ice or more across NE AR/the MO Bootheel and
NW TN. This would result in numerous power outages. Lesser amounts
of ice are expected the remainder of eastern AR and southwest TN.
These amounts are really just first guesses at this point. Ice
accumulation depends on many factors including drop size and wind
so uncertainty is high. Also, the location of the heaviest ice
axis is dependent on the location of the arctic front which has
certainly shifted southeastward with the most recent models runs.
 
Looks like 4-8 from the TV stations here the NWS didn't really say anything other than 7-10 is their high end and they said they were conservative but I think the sleet uncertainty 4-8 makes sense could be a lot more if it's all snow
 
Brent said:
Looks like 4-8 from the TV stations here the NWS didn't really say anything other than 7-10 is their high end and they said they were conservative but I think the sleet uncertainty 4-8 makes sense could be a lot more if it's all snow
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I’m thinking more snow and less sleet for you compared to where we were yesterday. Most models have shown a little bit colder upper levels. In terms of totals this is what I think right now for our areas:
OKC: 3-7 inches
Tulsa: 6-9 inches
 
BufordWX said:
I’m thinking more snow and less sleet for you compared to where we were yesterday. Most models have shown a little bit colder upper levels. In terms of totals this is what I think right now for are areas:
OKC: 3-7 inches
Tulsa: 6-9 inches
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Yeah I'm definitely leaning higher side with today's trends hopefully it keeps up

I do understand being conservative though
 
One thing I am interested in watching tomorrow is how the front is progressing. Right now most models show OKC and Tulsa getting below freezing by 12z-15z, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that actually happens a few hours earlier like around 09z. Last year played out similarly as the cold air filtered in several hours earlier then originally thought. This could mean earlier onset of freezing rain Wednesday morning.
 
BufordWX said:
One thing I am interested in watching tomorrow is how the front is progressing. Right now most models show OKC and Tulsa getting below freezing by 12z-15z, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that actually happens a few hours earlier like around 09z. Last year played out similarly as the cold air filtered in several hours earlier then originally thought. This could mean earlier onset of freezing rain Wednesday morning.
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Seems to always happen the models are always too slow
 
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