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Wintry Feb. 19-20

interestedclimatist said:
you know the NWS doesn’t know what’s going to happen when they say Raleigh is getting less than an inch
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I see what they're doing with the conservative forecast. I think a lot of us have memories of January 2017 when two days before the event, the bullseye was well to the East of Raleigh, but I-85 S got fringed. If there's a warm-nose you can never be too careful. north-carolina-snow-storm-1-6-7-2017.png
I think if more CAMS besides the NAM start to agree with the Euro, then they'll slowly shift the forecast SW. But I think they have good reason to be cautious IMO.
 
Chazwin said:
This is something I’ve been noticing since last night. The globals often underestimate the moisture response with this. Happened back in the 1/21 storm
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Yeah if we see a northwestward expansion in the QPF field, I think this is most likely to be the catalyst vs. just the entire system coming back west.
 
LickWx said:
Zebulon yes, Raleigh prolly 10-12

This is a very unprofessional opinion tho mind you
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I like the optimism ngl. The problem is the mixing line and not knowing where it’s going to set up. If it sets up south of us we are good. I honestly think we will have an abundance of cold air
 
KyloG said:
Aren’t you in the dead center of this snow max?

View attachment 169787
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Yes that 12.4 sitting right over mby, but but but the transition line has shifted far enough south that I got a little wiggle room to not transition to all rain.... I hope Lol
 
1300m said:
RDU all snow on 18z Euro. Probably first run you could definitively say that.View attachment 169796
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Similar here as well. All snow. There’s also another time after the storm where columns saturates briefly for snow production again with the northern stream upper level low itself aloft around 12z Thursday similar to that rdu sounding, that feature needs to be watched IMG_5795.gif
 
My first call map, ignore my horrible drawing I hope I got the idea across. I put the mountains in the 1-3 inch zone to account for any NW flow Wednesday night-Thursday. I didn't put specific amounts for the mix zone because I was too uncertain. I went low for the jackpot zone just incase but if things go right, that area could receive twice the amount of snow I put.
First Call Map.png
 
Stevo24 said:
How come you don’t post epic model images like you used to in that thread?
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For several reasons.

1. There are very few model runs that are worth looking back at and the ones that are worth it get clogged in the main thread
2. All the files are probably going to get deleted from this site eventually
3. The point was to see how models performed for big storms, and we haven't had one big one since I started the thread in 2019
4. All the data files are freely available so if I wanted to analyze a storm, I could do it if I wanted to. I've thought about creating a website to do such a thing, but It hasn't been a priority
5. The qualifications for map posting were not standardized, so it's difficult to compare year to year which was my goal at the time.
6. Last year, I gave up halfway through the year, and that ruined everything
 
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