-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
NAM has the low in **checks notes** Monterrey Mexico this run
Should be a better here
Should be a better here
ducketta27
Member
I feel like the GRAF did a decent job with the coastal snowstorm last month (at least in SC)...
rburrel2
Member
Curious to see if the NAM matches up at 5h now with other modeling, but maybe it'll have a better qpf output for us at the surface. That'd be great.
It won't. It'll be more amped, but it will eventually get in line after it gets beat down like a rented mule over the next 36 hrs.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Well it’s definitely in the process of making its traditional whole sale changes towards all other guidance. Confluence is night and day
It’s not far from the euro at H5 comparing them, but still has a decent amount of work to do
Ay, caramba!
WolfpackHomer91
Member
@60 1016 over Biloxi here comes the NAM"ing 
We’re all about to get NAM’d here 
Cary_Snow95
Member
QPF ain’t lacking here
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Ok, so when the low is over Mexico (land); there is a large area of precip all the way into Illinois and Missouri, with some convection in TX and LA. As the low spreads East and is over the gulf; all the precip dries out and only makes it to a line from CAE to RDU.
you're not kidding. It's carrying the water
Cary_Snow95
Member
Bigedd09
Member
NAM is VERY icey
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Nice! Took RDU from the rain/ZR line at 18z to the snow/sleet line at 0z.
Well it’s a NC winter storm now at least vs a rainstorm last run. Little guy is getting there
mx3gsr92
Member
Someone delete the entire Mid-Atlantic forum.
There’s my moisture 
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Either this model is garbage or there's something it sees because I don't think I'd be all snow all that time with this one.
mx3gsr92
Member
It’s exactly like it should be if CAD still works correctly.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
FWIW, NAM and FV3 look identical at hour 60
Stormlover
Member
The GRAF looks really good here in far north Alabama.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The NAM slowly coming back to reality. Seen this song and dance play out at least 3-4x this winter with these setups, even over the mid Atlantic.
Icon coming in colder aloft
Liked the changes early on, particularly in the PAC NW with the vort coming in a little stronger, and also holding the ul trough axis back a little bit. A slightly more + trough axis through the southern plains at 300mb allowed for a better Gulf moisture tap and this was reflected at 500 and 700mb RH compared to previous runs.
Like I always say, cold first, then worry about QPF.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
So incoming weaker
Not this time
Well the Ñam has made the push south to catch up to Euro. Good trends.
18z AI did shift SE more, which is fine most likely will wobble back NW now..... still don't think qpf will be an issue for most east of the Mountains in NC jmho
