Wintry Feb. 19-20

[Tsappfrog20]

Triangle looks good…
View attachment 169756

Please be right!!!


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[KyloG]

Starting to consolidate…hopefully

 

[KyloG]

This can only trend but so far south and east…

 

[LickWx]

This can only trend but so far south and east…

View attachment 169758

Not really, the trend has not slowed down at all, what’s stopping it? Richmond was the jackpot yesterday now they are eating cirrus almost and that’s a day ago! Another day of trends like this and it’s down to new Bern and hatteras

 

[Spurs up]

18z euro is accelerating the colder trend aloft View attachment 169751

I like

 

[rburrel2]

The coastal completely robs the Upstate on the 18z Euro. Ouch. Eerily similar to the 2004 epic screw job, just shifted a little further East.

 

[jmorris]

Triangle looks good…
View attachment 169756

Sure does. As long as the Euro holds steady we're good.

 

[Six Mile Wx]

The “ Ole dry slot” making a big time appearance.

 

[SnowNiner]

View attachment 169749

Well for starters this feature would probably raise qpf a bit, also it's a known rule that globals underdo qpf on the NW portion of the storm.

I keep mentioning the gulf storm but we managed to pull a dusting of snow out of a system that came close to whiffing even the coast in the modelling before that. We are in a much more favorable position, will someone be screwed by the transfer? Probably, but we're looking at a probably warning level storm even without the massively high qpf amounts.

I'm just appreciative that we in Charlotte have gone from a sleet-to-ZR fest to possibly a couple inches of snow.

Gotcha, yeah the frontogenesis may be under modeled. It's possible the NAM could find some good forcing and help us out, good point. I'll disagree though that we're looking at a warning event right now, which is 4 inches I believe. Not seeing how that happens, especially if this drying trend doesn't stop.

Pulled a dusting out of the gulf storm, yep. But I'm not sure I'd use that as a reason to get substantial qpf to the NW.

 

[Chazwin]

Not really, the trend has not slowed down at all, what’s stopping it? Richmond was the jackpot yesterday now they are eating cirrus almost and that’s a day ago! Another day of trends like this and it’s down to new Bern and hatteras

You can look at the 500 mb charts and still the SER ridge lurking.

 

[Spurs up]

18z euro is accelerating the colder trend aloft View attachment 169751

although probably won't matter for my area

 

[SWVAWX]

These SE trends can stop now! Keeps going no one will be in play.

 

[CaryWx]

Starting to consolidate…hopefully

View attachment 169757

Is this where we want to start the nw trend tomorrow night?

 

[1300m]

Is this really happening? RDU would be mostly if not all snow.

 

[Brent9]

Sammy troup posted a pic of the graf the upstate looks pretty good

 

[LickWx]

You can look at the 500 mb charts and still the SER ridge lurking.

True, it’s always there but it’s weak , it was there too during that jan storm, just all the way down in the Caribbean. Cold air is dense , it’ll keep pushing it down

 

[LukeBarrette]

The “ Ole dry slot” making a big time appearance.View attachment 169761

@1300m sorry I doubted you here.
I died on the hill I was on

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I think something much folks didn’t notice is that while yes slightly less QPF, notice the orientation /axis of snow bent back a little bit, likely due the that embedded southern wave consolidating a bit and slightly more tilted, this is why I like the cold trend we’ve had because something simple like this can turn this up several notches if it continues

 

[KyloG]

Track is pretty to look at.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Don’t think the dry slot is done trending usually it’s very expansive along the Lee and across state lines into VA. Gonna be a big storm down east. Are we traveling to Raleigh?

 

[KyloG]

Is this where we want to start the nw trend tomorrow night?

Its inevitable

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

I think something much folks didn’t notice is that while yes slightly less QPF, notice the orientation /axis of snow bent back a little bit, likely due the that embedded southern wave consolidating a bit and slightly more tilted, this is why I like the cold trend we’ve had because something simple like this can turn this up several notches if it continues View attachment 169763

SW -> NE = Better influx correct sir … good call


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[SnowNiner]

The coastal completely robs the Upstate on the 18z Euro. Ouch. Eerily similar to the 2004 epic screw job, just shifted a little further East.

View attachment 169759View attachment 169760

Don't worry, CLT will join you in a few more cycles. By tomorrow night it'll be partly cloudy west of 77. Amazing.

 

[CaryWx]

Track is pretty to look at.


View attachment 169764

That's a 999 out there. whew!

 

[1300m]

I think one thing a lot of people (NWS RAH included) are sleeping on is just how strong this upper level jet is. These jet dynamics are going to really enhance the precipitation shield further west (Euro is probably doing a pretty good job of it) from the coastal.

 

[KyloG]

Remarkable what has happened past 48 hours…this is 60 hours from start now

 

[Bigedd09]

Don’t think the dry slot is done trending usually it’s very expansive along the Lee and across state lines into VA. Gonna be a big storm down east. Are we traveling to Raleigh?

Didn't you just say an ice storm for everyone south of you? lol

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

Sammy troup posted a pic of the graf the upstate looks pretty good

 

[wow]

I think we've got the track nailed down.. Now it's time to sort out the QPF and the process of the phase as the low transfers to the Atlantic and bombs out it going to bring some complexity to the situation

 

[astroworld123]

Triangle looks good…
View attachment 169756

I would empty my bank account to have this verify


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[weather bubba]

delete

 

[CaryWx]

euro ops run has about 12hrs of precip for Raleigh if I'm reading that right

 

[packfan98]

Remarkable what has happened part 48 hours…this is 60 hours from start now

View attachment 169766

Looks to be trending towards the AIFS in general. Pretty remarkable.

 

[SWVAWX]

Well I guess it would take a miracle for this to come back to giving the western side of VA a good snow. We went from a foot to 8 to 4 to 2 now lol

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Didn't you just say an ice storm for everyone south of you? lol

I still believe in icing concerns for non-mountain areas. Good news for snow lovers sleet will let the snow live a few days longer than normal. Some will see ZR but focus may be shifting below Raleigh? We shall see.

 

[1300m]

Remarkable what has happened part 48 hours…this is 60 hours from start now

View attachment 169766

VA NC special. That's the classic RDU footprint there. If we could dial in this phase just a tad more and pull the surface low back west at the last minute resulting in an enhanced deformation band....

 

[SnowNiner]

Remarkable what has happened part 48 hours…this is 60 hours from start now

View attachment 169766

4-5 days out, Euro AI is the new king. Global Euro/EPS has been dethroned. That's an amazing crap job for the global euro. We should have known though considering the record blocking and 50/50 low. Sorry, I'm in suppression depression. Losing a snow storm to coastal areas twice in a month is hard.

 

[jetstream30]

We are down to 1 inch in the western piedmont. Will that increase or be flurries? I still think the storms comes NW some. Any thoughts? Thanks again to all for this forum.

 

[KyloG]

Maybe the AI is good after all. It’s been locked in for a couple of days now

 

[KyloG]

The HP is just over powering