You can see the NE confluence doing work and flattening it out/cooling mid levels 
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rburrel2
Member
Nice to see the GFS join the party with the thermal profile for the upstate, but hold on to a decent amount of qpf. It's still got .2-.3 falling that would be all snow north of 85. Also nice that it all falls in a short window from 7am to Noon.
That's probably about a best case scenario at this point for us, and could lead to a solid 2-3 inch'ish paste job.
That's probably about a best case scenario at this point for us, and could lead to a solid 2-3 inch'ish paste job.
RDPS pretty dog water save ENC/SEVA
Undoubtedly a better run for C / E NC. May not be where we want it, but it's better than it's been. DC snow weenies in shambles, too.
EDIT: It is really dry, though. Hadn't looked at QPF until now.
EDIT: It is really dry, though. Hadn't looked at QPF until now.
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NCSNOW
Member
Check out qpf total map on 18z gfs. Has 0.00 Moore county. Everyone.1-.2, something is off
I know the RGEM is generally more revered compared to the NAM, but it's also a shorter range model that really isn't in its wheelhouse. But it does show the same general idea of a lot of the other modeling, although it's really skimpy out further west, like you said.
Tsappfrog20
Member
rburrel2
Member
All the models have been advertising a minima between the dying out precip shield and the new one that develops from the coastal. The GFS just has that minima further East than some of the other modeling.
Track is moving SE like the general consensus has been doing. 
jmorris
Member
Still playing catchup to the Euro.
oh nooooo, not the snow weenines in shambles who live in the area thats gotten some of the best snow of the entire Eastern section of the country this winter
Cary_Snow95
Member
The 18z Gfs is crazy dry
break in good or bad way, is the question
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Insanely good way,
Cary_Snow95
Member
jmorris
Member
Blows up nicely with the precip from the west and the south.
look at that mega block of snow trying to come into near ALL of NC, damnnnn
Nice to see low/mid levels aren’t torching at my locale anymore on the GFS 
Cary_Snow95
Member
The euro and gfs are so far apart on precip its crazy
Am I missing something. This shows nothing
Sounds like the GRAF must go out further than that shows (only until 5 am Wednesday), since the other Tweet mentioned it going to 1 pm on Wednesday. But extrapolated forward, I think that one that goes until 5 am would be pretty darn good, too.
The GFS is a little scary in the QPF department. I think we may be kissing the 1-2" QPF bomb goodbye. But we'll take the greater snow chances. The more optimistic models still keeps the Triangle near 1" QPF, which is great if that holds.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
For how long though…
Cary_Snow95
Member
Til 00z when eero goes to .2” all across ncFor how long though…
With that last frame it looks like it’s about to be a massive overrunning event right up I-85
I’ll put those odds @ 2.5%
Wouldn't take much change at H5 for the low to be temporarily captured by the cutoff crashing in through the OH Valley, it's certainly trended in a more favorable orientation to do it over the past 24hrs. I feel like we are kind of in that dead zone between the globals and cams, where guidance has a habit of either loosing systems, or diminishing the expected impacts to sensible weather. The EPS shows we are still far away from locking down a track and strength, which will determine what, where and what everyone cares about, how much. I see some 970s in there tucked close, 980s, lots of 990s. We have a ways to go, I wouldn't write this off just yet, quite the opposite.
rburrel2
Member
The GFS has me at 36/30 at 7am Wedsneday morning at which point it starts ripping snow at a moderate rate for the next 3 hours. Yet my surface temp stays at 34 degrees for that.... no chance. I'm not even a little concerned about the boundary layer here at this point.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
I'm not 100% what GRAF goes to, but I kind of assume they cut it off early, but idk for sure.
jmorris
Member
It's getting better each run, but just taking forever to catch up to the Euro, UK and Canadian.
Competely agree on the “dead zone” sentiment. Uncanny valley of forecasting
rburrel2
Member
I think it's possible Snow could make it to the ground in Atlanta Wednesday morning. Their issue is they do have a rather thick boundary layer, but being pre-dawn and with a surface that's not torching that much, it's certainly possible under heavier rates.
I think it's almost a given Gainesville to Toccoa will quickly flip to snow if they don't start out as snow, (assuming the thermal profiles being depicted before precip starts are accurate).
Get it here early and we may be able to overperform the way Atlanta did back in early January. Assuming everything doesn’t go to sh** in the next 48 hours
weather bubba
Member
Here's what the NWS blend of models is showing for accumulation after all is said and done. This looks good for those who were worried in western portions of NC and VA. This will not be a storm we need yardsticks to mesaure but it would be the most significant snow for many of us in about five years.
NCSNOW
Member
18z ukmet is lot colder than it was at 12z. Hr 66
Cary_Snow95
Member
Probably gonna decrease qpf
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Cold = Weaker / Warmer = Stronger …. Time to pick a side, we’re not getting both imo.
We’ve got more than enough cold… time to start bringing some back as sacrifice for liquid. I’m not even talking about my area, I’m talking anyone SW of VA Beach ar this point
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J1C1111
Member
Hey burrel. You think I could get some good accumulation in sw Rutherford county or you think I will get the dreaded dry slot. I think you will get a good front end thump for sure down your way. Thanks buddy.