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Wintry Feb. 19-20

Webberweather53 said:
The long range NAM being that far north & given its performance this season in these setups w/ big chunks of the polar vortex getting trapped underneath a blocking high, says a lot about the chances of that solution verifying (slim to none).
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People like JB and some Mets in the mid Atlantic say the H5 pattern with the confluence or whatever doesn’t match typical misses to the south with analogs suggesting more NW. more like a Fredericksburg jackpot. These are Mets and so are you, two camps saying different things so what is the truth?
 
Webberweather53 said:
The long range NAM being that far north & given its performance this season in these setups w/ big chunks of the polar vortex getting trapped underneath a blocking high, says a lot about the chances of that solution verifying (slim to none).
Click to expand...
What’s you current thinking on the system and potential trends?
 
LickWx said:
People like JB and some Mets in the mid Atlantic say the H5 pattern with the confluence or whatever doesn’t match typical misses to the south with analogs suggesting more NW. more like a Fredericksburg jackpot. These are Mets and so are you, two camps saying different things so what is the truth?
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JB is literally a podcaster , no Merrit to a word he says imo


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LickWx said:
People like JB and some Mets in the mid Atlantic say the H5 pattern with the confluence or whatever doesn’t match typical misses to the south with analogs suggesting more NW. more like a Fredericksburg jackpot. These are Mets and so are you, two camps saying different things so what is the truth?
Click to expand...

JB loves to wishcast storms to his house.
 
LickWx said:
People like JB and some Mets in the mid Atlantic say the H5 pattern with the confluence or whatever doesn’t match typical misses to the south with analogs suggesting more NW. more like a Fredericksburg jackpot. These are Mets and so are you, two camps saying different things so what is the truth?
Click to expand...
I'm going with Eric

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LickWx said:
People like JB and some Mets in the mid Atlantic say the H5 pattern with the confluence or whatever doesn’t match typical misses to the south with analogs suggesting more NW. more like a Fredericksburg jackpot. These are Mets and so are you, two camps saying different things so what is the truth?
Click to expand...
I do expect the NAM to fall a little more in line with everything else but when it starts suggesting thermal issues I prefer to bite early. It makes life easier 60 hours from now
 
packfan98 said:
What’s you current thinking on the system and potential trends?
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It's going to hold steady or trend south a little more from here in general imho. While we could get a sizable north shift here, the pattern does not favor a big one this time around unless we see seismic changes with the chunk of the vortex that's getting trapped underneath this west-based -NAO blocking ridge.
 
5bee6cf446aded6c008ae3c9622f6afc.jpg

EXACT placement as EURO on that 85 Band at hr 72

Edit : maybe some wrap around for NENC and SEVA


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18z ICON does introduce mixing a little further N/W by my eye, though I am splitting hairs a bit. Definitely more mixing in RDU which cuts down totals a bit compared to 12z. Surface temps are in the low 20s on this same frame, so it's probably some pingers.

Definitely a better run for the Triad and I-85 corridor out that way since it gets a little more QPF out there.

icon-all-nc-t850-0009600 (1).png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
This still a Miller A track? Asking for Lick. 12z had it transferring from south GA off the coast of Charleston. Now it goes Macon to Florence to North Myrtle ☠️ View attachment 169704
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That track never makes the gulf coast where it can tap into additional moisture and really up the QPF levels before exiting and starting its run up the east coast. With a inland track like that most of us get screwed. Let's keep the NAM on its own island and keep the other models away from this solution.
 
weather bubba said:
Well, they got one thing right at least. That dividing line between snow and ice is practically right over my house and I've seen too many winter events where that is the case.
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Given the amplitude of the wave & warmer mid Feb background climo temps aloft, this storm is probably gonna be up there in terms of big local snow/sleet accumulation gradients across north-central NC.

Once we get the details narrowed down, this feels like it will be a near impossible forecast for those near the snow/sleet line as the difference between a couple inches of sleet & a foot of snow could be as little as 20-30 miles and maybe 1F aloft near the warm nose.

The pattern isn't the same of course, but in that Feb 1989 event, 2" of snow fell in McCullers, while 15" occurred in Butner/southern Granville County. That's the kind of thing that this storm is capable of doing, we obviously don't know where said gradient will setup yet.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Given the amplitude of the wave & warmer mid Feb background climo temps aloft, this storm is probably gonna be up there in terms of big local snow/sleet accumulation gradients across north-central NC.

Once we get the details narrowed down, this feels like it will be a near impossible forecast for those near the snow/sleet line as the difference between a couple inches of sleet & a foot of snow could be as little as 20-30 miles and maybe 1F aloft near the warm nose.

The pattern isn't the same of course, but in that Feb 1989 event, 2" of snow fell in McCullers, while 15" occurred in Butner/southern Granville County. That's the kind of thing that this storm is capable of doing, we obviously don't know where said gradient will setup yet.
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I was one of the receipents of that 2" total near McCullers that you mention LOL. Even though two inches would be OK I want to see some bigger numbers this time.
 
Splitting hairs a bit, but heights out in front on the 18z GFS are a little lower than 12z, so I'd expect to this to be a (marginally?) better run. Of course, model predictions are often a fool's game, so we'll see...The GFS has been an outlier on the warm side, so a lot of us definitely want it to be better than it's been.
 
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