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Wintry Feb. 19-20

Inside D6 trend strikes again proving why it is so unwise to bank on anything D6+ modeling is showing. If you've followed this one for more than a week, you've basically tracked two storms: the fantasy one and now the real one slowly coming into focus. It's hard to let go of some of those things seen out at range, but the reality is there is only so much amping up this one can do for western parts at this range.
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EPS members starting to come to a consensus minus a few holdouts. Real question is where does the axis of heaviest precip line up and of course, ptypes.

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ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-0139200.png
 
1300m said:
Inside D6 trend strikes again proving why it is so unwise to bank on anything D6+ modeling is showing. If you've followed this one for more than a week, you've basically tracked two storms: the fantasy one and now the real one slowly coming into focus. It's hard to let go of some of those things seen out at range, but the reality is there is only so much amping up this one can do for western parts at this range.
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EPS members starting to come to a consensus minus a few holdouts. Real question is where does the axis of heaviest precip line up and of course, ptypes.

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It will come back west 🤣
 
packfan98 said:
I’d give it until 0z tomorrow night. It won’t take much to get the tail end of the storm to amp and move up the coast.
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Oh, who are we kidding, we all know this will trend west at the last minute. Question is how much. Just wait until the NAM gets in its wheelhouse, that will tell us all we want to know. I just want to keep the same thermals when this west trend is done.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Oh, who are we kidding, we all know this will trend west at the last minute. Question is how much. Just wait until the NAM gets in its wheelhouse, that will tell us all we want to know. I just want to keep the same thermals when this west trend is done.
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NAM tracks it from Jackson MS to Montgomery AL to Albany GA then transfers it off the coast of Charleston. lol but everyone has picked a hill to die on already and that’s ok. It’s why we do this
 
What’s hilarious and it happened both storms this year…. Forum says trending down….. turn on tv or Twitter Local Mets say going up. If you weren’t on a forum or looking for yourself and just follow Mets I’d be hyped right now. A few that never post anything are excited for this one on Twitter lol


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1300m said:
Inside D6 trend strikes again proving why it is so unwise to bank on anything D6+ modeling is showing. If you've followed this one for more than a week, you've basically tracked two storms: the fantasy one and now the real one slowly coming into focus. It's hard to let go of some of those things seen out at range, but the reality is there is only so much amping up this one can do for western parts at this range.
View attachment 169680View attachment 169679

EPS members starting to come to a consensus minus a few holdouts. Real question is where does the axis of heaviest precip line up and of course, ptypes.

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There are many members that bring a nice little snow to North Alabama. Keep the SE trend rolling!
 
BullCityWx said:
First time I’ve seen the NWS use that wording since 2018

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No accumulation talk yet ….90%
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High of 36 Weds? Hmmm umm nooo chance


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Well, catching up from last night, it seems like the drying up trends unfortunately continued, and may not be over yet. Pretty bummed the Euro and the EPS has dried up and caved to the AIs. I guess they win another one here.

Grit tried to warn us a while ago that the more confluence we get, the weaker the storm may be, and that's pretty much the situation I think. The monster -AO, and significant cold is making the southern energy weaker (until it gets in the ocean). Too much of a good thing I guess, again. It's actually too cold for the CLT area to snow this winter.

I don't buy into the more precip NW than modeled discussion, at least that will matter for mby. Reality for me is this is a Raleigh and NE storm, and perhaps an advisory event for MBY and west. We'll see. I'll take a couple of inches if I can get it, but I'd be shocked if I get more than 1 or 2 inches out of this at this point. I actually miss the runs where I was getting a couple inches of sleet and ZR. smh.
 
Mpirone12 said:
Something that has not been mentioned yet is ground temps are not nearly as cold as last storm so it may take a little bit to start sticking. Shouldn’t be that bad though since temps have gone back and forth all week.
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That, and the diurnal timing aren’t ideal, but that’s why the fact BL temps will be in the low to mid 20s for many AND rates will likely be heavy really helps us out in that regard. If we were talking light rates with temps around freezing, I’d be more worried we’d waste a lot of snow getting it to stick. Either way, it is something to consider, though. Too bad we couldn’t get this in mid-January!

EDIT: @1300m posted the forecasted soil temps and they’re actually <40 for a lot of us, so not as much of a factor as I expected. I was afraid they’d be in the 45-50 range.
 
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1300m said:
Inside D6 trend strikes again proving why it is so unwise to bank on anything D6+ modeling is showing. If you've followed this one for more than a week, you've basically tracked two storms: the fantasy one and now the real one slowly coming into focus. It's hard to let go of some of those things seen out at range, but the reality is there is only so much amping up this one can do for western parts at this range.
View attachment 169680View attachment 169679

EPS members starting to come to a consensus minus a few holdouts. Real question is where does the axis of heaviest precip line up and of course, ptypes.

View attachment 169683
View attachment 169684
Click to expand...
I for one appreciate your analysis. Looking at the frames on this latest Euro model run there are a few members that show nothing for lots of folks in western and central North Carolina. If this keeps shifting to the south and east and flattens out even more then there will be more disappointed folks who are expecting a significant snow. Let's hope things trend more amped and to the northwest a little more.
 
Mpirone12 said:
Something that has not been mentioned yet is ground temps are not nearly as cold as last storm so it may take a little bit to start sticking. Shouldn’t be that bad though since temps have gone back and forth all week.
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Soil temps should not be a major inhibitor to accumulation. NWS RAH conducted research and found that soil temperatures < 40F had little to no effect on snowfall accumulation in the presence of cold temperatures. With temps falling into the 20s, if there are good rates snow will pile up. Roads may stay wet a little longer compared to earlier events, but grassy and elevated surfaces should do well.
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WolfpackHomer91 said:
No accumulation talk yet ….90%
91f4e348dfdbd607228a222bd12f9f61.jpg



High of 36 Weds? Hmmm umm nooo chance


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The term "showers" is the key here. Snow, and Snow Showers are two different things. Intermittent periods of snow showers is what we're forecasted for currently, not continuous snow.
 
Surprised with how quiet the TN/northern MS/AL/GA crew has been the last several days. One would think that nothing at all is going on over here lol. Overall setup is good for a potential light to moderate snowfall event for Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, Huntsville, and Chattanooga. The northern burbs of Birmingham and Atlanta can't be ruled out either. Less precip to work with for those of us west of the Apps, but, timing is pointing to a mainly overnight/morning event which is definitely preferable for mid-February.
 
Mitch West said:
Sure. But Raleigh has scored better with moderate to major systems. 2018 Dec was a prime example. A storm that should have worked out much better for Charlotte.
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If you go back to January 2000, then yes. Raleigh gets some benefit of the Atlantic moisture that Charlotte does not, therefore the 2 inch higher average. The past 10 years, just north of Raleigh has scored, like in 2018, but otherwise snow drought here as well.
 
cyclogent said:
Surprised with how quiet the TN/northern MS/AL/GA crew has been the last several days. One would think that nothing at all is going on over here lol. Overall setup is good for a potential light to moderate snowfall event for Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, Huntsville, and Chattanooga. The northern burbs of Birmingham and Atlanta can't be ruled out either. Less precip to work with for those of us west of the Apps, but, timing is pointing to a mainly overnight/morning event which is definitely preferable for mid-February.
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Oh we here!!just waiting for a few more model runs before we get excited
 
cyclogent said:
Surprised with how quiet the TN/northern MS/AL/GA crew has been the last several days. One would think that nothing at all is going on over here lol. Overall setup is good for a potential light to moderate snowfall event for Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, Huntsville, and Chattanooga. The northern burbs of Birmingham and Atlanta can't be ruled out either. Less precip to work with for those of us west of the Apps, but, timing is pointing to a mainly overnight/morning event which is definitely preferable for mid-February.
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Gonna be pulling it close... We're really threading the needle with it
 
Stormdoc said:
If you go back to January 2000, then yes. Raleigh gets some benefit of the Atlantic moisture that Charlotte does not, therefore the 2 inch higher average. The past 10 years, just north of Raleigh has scored, like in 2018, but otherwise snow drought here as well.
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I bet you’re happy then for this system 😂
 
cyclogent said:
Surprised with how quiet the TN/northern MS/AL/GA crew has been the last several days. One would think that nothing at all is going on over here lol. Overall setup is good for a potential light to moderate snowfall event for Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, Huntsville, and Chattanooga. The northern burbs of Birmingham and Atlanta can't be ruled out either. Less precip to work with for those of us west of the Apps, but, timing is pointing to a mainly overnight/morning event which is definitely preferable for mid-February.
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Yeah i’ve been tracking it but I’m not to excited about it pretty much. actually here in north Alabama near the Tennessee state line local stations here in Hazel Green haven’t been talking about it to much
 
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