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Wintry Feb. 19-20

Billypg70 said:
I'd be lying if I told said I'm not worried about this being a real scenario in the Lee of the mountains as always.
What is positive imo is it's been wet now for a week or so.

Patterns repeat.
Hopefully this will trend a lil wetter as we get closer.
Hell who I'm I kidding,
Hoping it trends as wet as the Niagara falls so long as the thermals stays what the cold modeling is showing!
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The mountains aren't hurting our qpf totals in this setup. This is just pure bad luck/randomness. Hopefully it's off. I'm not asking for a mini-jackpot... I just want my .25 of liquid and i won't complain.
 
rburrel2 said:
The mountains aren't hurting our qpf totals in this setup. This is just pure bad luck/randomness. Hopefully it's off. I'm not asking for a mini-jackpot... I just want my .25 of liquid and i won't complain.
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I get it but it's hard to not look at it thru that lens.
As for taking what you can get,
I have been married for 30+ years now.
Beggars can't be choosers,
If you know what I'm saying.
🤷‍♂️
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
2 zones that would have boom potential, the zone above the best low level FGEN and WAA
View attachment 169652
The deform band View attachment 169653man can we maintain this look or even go colder
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Dang, that's crazy. Huge rates here / over the Triangle twice. Wondering if we could trend that deformation band into something even more special like with February 2014 in the foothills. Of course, let's get the storm first, but maybe something to watch? Don't recall the exact setup from that one, so I'm not sure if that's really feasible.
 
Billypg70 said:
I get it but it's hard to not look at it thru that lens.
As for taking what you can get,
I have been married for 30+ years now.
Beggars can't be choosers,
If you know what I'm saying.
🤷‍♂️
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I actually think the opposite could wind up being true for our area and I've seen it happen before.

You've got a screaming 925mb jet coming down the backside of the mountains delivering -2 to -4 C air... then as you go up from that level the winds become more easterly and then Southeasterly/Southerly as you get to 850mb and that 850mb air is also warmer than the air below it. If anything that should help air to rise and potentially create some banding right over us.

There's no meteorological reason that should create a precip minima.

The precip minima, for whoever gets it, is just coming from the transfer to the coastal low.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is hot stuff. Band along/north of the FGEN over the 85 corridor View attachment 169649
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Even down my way even though it shows a mix it’s solid snow sounding. Another thing I also look at is the orientation of the band from WSW to ENE. That’s traditionally what you see for heavy snow in CLT metro
 
I'm estatic that according to the Euro the RDU area is in the bullseye for once for a significant snow accumulation. I also know that there are more than 72 hours between now and when the storm begins and also the energy responsible for this storm hasn't even been sampled yet. That is enough to keep me from going out and buying another snow sled for now and should encourage others who may have thrown in the towel a little early. This storm may trend northwest as many have in the past within three days or it could flatten out even more and cut QPF totals down to practically nothing for those who are in the jackpot zone. I'd be happy with 2 to 4" of guaranteed snow at this point. As they say, a bird in the hand beats two in the bush.
 
Ever CONSERVATIVE NWS KILM alludes that *WE*, *Might* get some backside Fun & Flurries outta this..

So,, yeah, I'm all for ANY S~SSE ticks in the coming days..

Yes, even after I got 6~7 inches a couple weeks ago..
Though I'm (honestly) rooting for ya'll upstate & West, As I know ya'll got "cheated" out of this last system..
~~~~~~~

KILM

Moderate rain (90% PoPs) forecasted for
Wednesday aftn when the rain is most likely to occur, and still
cannot rule out some brief freezing rain or snow (no
accumulations anticipated) mixing in over areas on the
back side of the low before it quickly pushes offshore early
Thursday.
 
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KyloG said:
West coast ridging getting strong, pushes things a little east. I still believe this going to be an absolute bomb just off the coast come Wednesday.


View attachment 169661
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I might be wrong but I think Dec. 26, 2010 was last time we had a bombing coastal up this way
 
superjames1992 said:
In a sense, nothing, but we've still got some wiggle room in that regard. Also, this is starting to get into short range now, so future changes will likely trend towards being less drastic (of course, no guarantees on that, but generally they would be since modeling is most accurate at shorter leads).
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I unfortunately can not say the same.. Everything has to go perfectly for me to have a chance at this lol. I know I speak for majority of Upstate SC and North GA as well.
 
rburrel2 said:
I actually think the opposite could wind up being true for our area and I've seen it happen before.

You've got a screaming 925mb jet coming down the backside of the mountains delivering -2 to -4 C air... then as you go up from that level the winds become more easterly and then Southeasterly/Southerly as you get to 850mb and that 850mb air is also warmer than the air below it. If anything that should help air to rise and potentially create some banding right over us.

There's no meteorological reason that should create a precip minima.

The precip minima, for whoever gets it, is just coming from the transfer to the coastal low.
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I've seen it too.
Feb 16, 2013
My wife's birthday.
Today
We had a boundary layer that setup on the East side of GVL county along 85 creating a fgen band
It was similar to a spring shower or thunderstorm
Heavy snow fell for about 45 to an hour and we got 2.5-3 inches here.
That deform banding rode 85 to around Charlotte.
 
Chazwin said:
That is something that can happen in a Miller A. Lee side dry slot. I remember something similar happened in March 2009 in the NC Foothills
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That one in March 2009 was b/c the surface to 900mb flow was from the Northwest around that stacked low. So you get CAA feed over the mountains that immediately starts to sink after it passes over them, killing precip but also warming the air too, double whammy.
 
Let's see if there is a NW trend tonight 0z. If not then what we see is probably close to the correct solutions. Then again it could keep going further SE and out to sea. Hopefully that will not be the case but still a possibility.
 
KyloG said:
EPS high pressure trending stronger past few runs...that ticks a tad weaker inside 48 then it will tick back NW.

View attachment 169660
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this is eerily similar to the progression/script of the southern coastal. we had a pretty big streak of wholesale suppression with that one as well before juicing up last second
 
VARunner said:
Let's see if there is a NW trend tonight 0z. If not then what we see is probably close to the correct solutions. Then again it could keep going further SE and out to sea. Hopefully that will not be the case but still a possibility.
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I’d give it until 0z tomorrow night. It won’t take much to get the tail end of the storm to amp and move up the coast.
 
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