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Wintry Feb. 19-20

rburrel2 said:
The GFS has me at 36/30 at 7am Wedsneday morning at which point it starts ripping snow at a moderate rate for the next 3 hours. Yet my surface temp stays at 34 degrees for that.... no chance. I'm not even a little concerned about the boundary layer here at this point.
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The GFS is horrible at catching the effects of dynamic cooling on 2m temps. Some years back there was a series of runs where it had CLT getting snow for 30 straight and keeping the temp at 33 degrees
 
Hey Southeast gang -- I'm still digging out from the great Florida sleetstorm! (Ok, not really, it hit 80 couple days ago).

Rooting for this silly southeast/drying trend to abate and for all of you to cash in.

My one piece of post-Gulf coast storm advice is -- ignore the NAM in the long range, BUT, pay it close attention on thermal profiles as we get closer to the event. It was pretty good on the snow/sleet line, at least IMBY -- while the globals/HRRR showed all snow for me, the NAM was super on point with its sleet/mix depiction inside 48 hours.

Good luck!
 
Ok, I'm ready to barter. How much to get .5" of qpf for the CLT metro? We can take up a collection. Is that so hard? I don't need a full inch, just a half ok? Geez.

So an earlier phase is out of the question, what's our last hope to fill in the precip further west? Exit region streaking jets? Any hope left at all metrologically for WNC?
 
superjames1992 said:
Someone is going to get 6-12” from this. In my book, that’s a big dog, albeit not a historic one.
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Draw a Line from Reidsville NC to Williamsburg VA …. There’s your hot pocket for now imo.

South Boston - Emporia VA will be your jackpot if I was placing a bet currently …. Allowing for some wiggle back to West which we know is coming


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
SnowNiner said:
Ok, I'm ready to barter. How much to get .5" of qpf for the CLT metro? We can take up a collection. Is that so hard? I don't need a full inch, just a half ok? Geez.

So an earlier phase is out of the question, what's our last hope to fill in the precip further west? Exit region streaking jets? Any hope left at all metrologically for WNC?
Click to expand...
The NAM is your best hope
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Draw a Line from Reidsville NC to Williamsburg VA …. There’s your hot pocket for now imo.

South Boston VA if I was placing a bet currently …. Allowing for some wiggle back to West which we know is coming


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Do we? All we have seen this year is further and further SE why do you think this will be any different? I’m thinking more SE, the trend has not shown any signs of stopping for like 500 runs now . Richmond is going to be sweating rn , I’m sticking to my call congrats Zebulon to wake forest and northeastward
 
SnowNiner said:
Ok, I'm ready to barter. How much to get .5" of qpf for the CLT metro? We can take up a collection. Is that so hard? I don't need a full inch, just a half ok? Geez.

So an earlier phase is out of the question, what's our last hope to fill in the precip further west? Exit region streaking jets? Any hope left at all metrologically for WNC?
Click to expand...
We don't need .5" qpf for a good storm, also you realize that models that the qpf will more likely than not be higher than depicted in the globals.
 
SnowNiner said:
Ok, I'm ready to barter. How much to get .5" of qpf for the CLT metro? We can take up a collection. Is that so hard? I don't need a full inch, just a half ok? Geez.

So an earlier phase is out of the question, what's our last hope to fill in the precip further west? Exit region streaking jets? Any hope left at all metrologically for WNC?
Click to expand...
I think you may want to start rooting for an 18z GFS like solution that gets us .25 and doesn't rely on anything related to the coastal stuff. Those numbers can easily be juiced up .3-.4 with some luck.

A 3-4 inch snow would be the biggest in a long time.

What you don't want is to be on the outside edge of the coastal development stuff and get minima'd with less than 1/10th of liquid. That's on the table anywhere from my house all the way to Eastern NC.
 
SimeonNC said:
We don't need .5" qpf for a good storm, also you realize that models that the qpf will more likely than not be higher than depicted in the globals.
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Why do you say amounts will be higher than shown on the globals? You think it'll be higher than the EPS which is usually rock solid? .2 or so for our back yard?

Yeah, .5 is what I'm shooting for for a memorable moderate event. Generally we'll need .4 probably to get to a warning criteria storm. Less than that will be an advisory event IMO
 
Here’s the afternoon discussion from NWS in Raleigh:

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 PM Sunday...

A southern stream shortwave will move east from the southern Plains
on Tuesday night to the Deep South on Wednesday, while a separate
northern stream closed mid/upper low drifts SE from the Northern
Plains to the Upper Great Lakes region. The southern wave and upper
divergence from the right entrance region of an associated upper jet
streak will spawn a surface low that develops on a cold front along
the Gulf Coast on Tuesday night and early Wednesday. This low will
then deepen and moves NE in a classic "Miller A" track along or just
off the Southeast US coast on Wednesday afternoon and evening. With
a cold dry air mass in place ahead of the system, confidence is
increasing in a period of frozen precipitation across most of
central NC from late Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening.
However, how impactful it is still remains to be seen, with both
precipitation types and amounts will very much up in the air. This
does not look like an all snow event, as there is almost definitely
going to be significant warming aloft with southerly flow at 850 mb.
At this time, the most likely part of the region to stay all or
mostly snow is the far northern Piedmont, with a fairly large
corridor of mainly sleet and freezing rain to the south. Our
southern tier of counties including FAY are most likely to stay all
or mostly rain.

A lot will depend on the degree of phasing that can occur between
the southern stream and northern stream wave, the latter of which
also has an associated jet streak which dives into the Central
Plains and mid-MS Valley. The ECMWF (and to some degree the
Canadian) has a faster and deeper northern stream mid/upper low
compared to the GFS, allowing for stronger height falls and greater
energy interaction between the two systems. This results in a deeper
coastal low and would bring a high impact winter storm to central
NC, with colder temperatures and greater QPF amounts. The GFS would
be more of a moderate/nuisance type event that only lasts for 6-12
hours before we are quickly dryslotted after 00z Thursday. This is
borne out in their respective ensembles as well, with the EPS
ensembles depicting a 50+% probability of warning criteria snow (>=
3 inches) across roughly the northern half of the region while the
GEFS only have 20-40% probabilities that are confined to our
northern tier of counties. Deterministic and ensemble guidance has
also been depicting potential for significant amounts of freezing
rain somewhere across central NC, perhaps exceeding a quarter inch,
with the greatest probabilities from around Raleigh to the south and
east. The NAM is surprisingly the warmest out of all guidance, with
mostly liquid for a good part of the area, but considering this
storm is at the very end of its range, will mostly disregard it at
this time.

It should be noted that neither the GFS or ECMWF has complete
phasing between the two waves, and the overall trend in both
deterministic and ensemble guidance has been slightly downward in
terms of overall QPF with a faster exit of precip, so will need to
see if this trend continues. Yesterday the ensemble mean QPF was in
the 1 to 2 inch range, while today it is more like the 0.5 to 1.5
inch range, lowest west and highest east. If this trend continues,
we would be looking at more of a nuisance type event like the GFS
has, but that is a big if. Stay tuned as details should become
clearer, hopefully by tomorrow when the southern wave reaches the
West Coast and we can get better sampling. As for timing,
precipitation still looks to start from SW to NE on Wednesday
morning, ending from SW to NE during the evening or early overnight
hours. Temperatures will be highly dependent on the ultimate
evolution of the system, but Wednesday is likely to be quite chilly
with temperatures stuck in the lower-to-mid-30s during the day,
maybe even upper-20s in the far north. Forecast lows Wednesday night
are in the upper-teens to mid-20s.
 
jmorris said:
I got the Euro.
Click to expand...

I’ve got a mix of 3 ensemble QPF averaged together / Paired with NAM thermals …. No not it’s track… but it’s thermals. By Tomm night it will be absolutely locked in on temp profiles as it normally is in CAD. I’m biased towards it though always have been


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SnowNiner said:
Why do you say amounts will be higher than shown on the globals? You think it'll be higher than the EPS which is usually rock solid? .2 or so for our back yard?

Yeah, .5 is what I'm shooting for for a memorable moderate event. Generally we'll need .4 probably to get to a warning criteria storm. Less than that will be an advisory event IMO
Click to expand...
1739746574895.png

Well for starters this feature would probably raise qpf a bit, also it's a known rule that globals underdo qpf on the NW portion of the storm.

I keep mentioning the gulf storm but we managed to pull a dusting of snow out of a system that came close to whiffing even the coast in the modelling before that. We are in a much more favorable position, will someone be screwed by the transfer? Probably, but we're looking at a probably warning level storm even without the massively high qpf amounts.

I'm just appreciative that we in Charlotte have gone from a sleet-to-ZR fest to possibly a couple inches of snow.
 
packfan98 said:
Here’s the afternoon discussion from NWS in Raleigh:

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 PM Sunday...

A southern stream shortwave will move east from the southern Plains
on Tuesday night to the Deep South on Wednesday, while a separate
northern stream closed mid/upper low drifts SE from the Northern
Plains to the Upper Great Lakes region. The southern wave and upper
divergence from the right entrance region of an associated upper jet
streak will spawn a surface low that develops on a cold front along
the Gulf Coast on Tuesday night and early Wednesday. This low will
then deepen and moves NE in a classic "Miller A" track along or just
off the Southeast US coast on Wednesday afternoon and evening. With
a cold dry air mass in place ahead of the system, confidence is
increasing in a period of frozen precipitation across most of
central NC from late Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening.
However, how impactful it is still remains to be seen, with both
precipitation types and amounts will very much up in the air. This
does not look like an all snow event, as there is almost definitely
going to be significant warming aloft with southerly flow at 850 mb.
At this time, the most likely part of the region to stay all or
mostly snow is the far northern Piedmont, with a fairly large
corridor of mainly sleet and freezing rain to the south. Our
southern tier of counties including FAY are most likely to stay all
or mostly rain.

A lot will depend on the degree of phasing that can occur between
the southern stream and northern stream wave, the latter of which
also has an associated jet streak which dives into the Central
Plains and mid-MS Valley. The ECMWF (and to some degree the
Canadian) has a faster and deeper northern stream mid/upper low
compared to the GFS, allowing for stronger height falls and greater
energy interaction between the two systems. This results in a deeper
coastal low and would bring a high impact winter storm to central
NC, with colder temperatures and greater QPF amounts. The GFS would
be more of a moderate/nuisance type event that only lasts for 6-12
hours before we are quickly dryslotted after 00z Thursday. This is
borne out in their respective ensembles as well, with the EPS
ensembles depicting a 50+% probability of warning criteria snow (>=
3 inches) across roughly the northern half of the region while the
GEFS only have 20-40% probabilities that are confined to our
northern tier of counties. Deterministic and ensemble guidance has
also been depicting potential for significant amounts of freezing
rain somewhere across central NC, perhaps exceeding a quarter inch,
with the greatest probabilities from around Raleigh to the south and
east. The NAM is surprisingly the warmest out of all guidance, with
mostly liquid for a good part of the area, but considering this
storm is at the very end of its range, will mostly disregard it at
this time.

It should be noted that neither the GFS or ECMWF has complete
phasing between the two waves, and the overall trend in both
deterministic and ensemble guidance has been slightly downward in
terms of overall QPF with a faster exit of precip, so will need to
see if this trend continues. Yesterday the ensemble mean QPF was in
the 1 to 2 inch range, while today it is more like the 0.5 to 1.5
inch range, lowest west and highest east. If this trend continues,
we would be looking at more of a nuisance type event like the GFS
has, but that is a big if. Stay tuned as details should become
clearer, hopefully by tomorrow when the southern wave reaches the
West Coast and we can get better sampling. As for timing,
precipitation still looks to start from SW to NE on Wednesday
morning, ending from SW to NE during the evening or early overnight
hours. Temperatures will be highly dependent on the ultimate
evolution of the system, but Wednesday is likely to be quite chilly
with temperatures stuck in the lower-to-mid-30s during the day,
maybe even upper-20s in the far north. Forecast lows Wednesday night
are in the upper-teens to mid-20s.
Click to expand...
I'm sorry, but you lose all credibility when you say a 0.5" to 1.5" all frozen QPF event would be more of a nuisance event. WTH someone please explain that one to me?

UPDATE: Re-reading this, I guess they are suggesting if the EPS/ECMWF/RGEM/UKMET all trend to the dry GFS it would be a nuisance event. It is so glaringly obvious that *some* of them don't have any idea how bad the GFS actually is at range. That's what happens when something becomes your job and not your passion/hobby and you don't look at it outside of work.
 
SimeonNC said:
View attachment 169749

Well for starters this feature would probably raise qpf a bit, also it's a known rule that globals underdo qpf on the NW portion of the storm.

I keep mentioning the gulf storm but we managed to pull a dusting of snow out of a system that came close to whiffing even the coast in the modelling before that. We are in a much more favorable position, will someone be screwed by the transfer? Probably, but we're looking at a probably warning level storm even without the massively high qpf amounts.

I'm just appreciative that we in Charlotte have gone from a sleet-to-ZR fest to possibly a couple inches of snow.
Click to expand...
What do the green lines signify?
 
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