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Wintry Feb. 19-20

I know the AI Euro is getting a lot of praise, but the GFS has also been surprisingly solid in its precip depiction over the past several days. It's had a few hiccups but overall a very similar footprint. Starting at hour 174:
 

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jetstream30 said:
We are down to 1 inch in the western piedmont. Will that increase or be flurries? I still think the storms comes NW some. Any thoughts? Thanks again to all for this forum.
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Disregarding a low prob scenario like an early phase … our best shot is one Fro mentioned …. Tilt the axis of Precip SW -> NE and see if we can get any influx. Outside of that West of 77 for now is a 1-2”
Deal East of 77 over to I-73 I’d say 2-4” for now


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Starting to get in range of the fun winter graphics from the NWS.
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My first forecast for totals :

Jackpot hasn’t changed, Zebulon wake forest and ne

highest amounts will be 24-28 inches in gates county, metwannabe has a real shot at 2 feet

Here in wake I’ll go with wake forest 16-20 and Zebulon 14 inches or so . Brick unfortunately will be the winner

Shane has a real shot at a foot as well but I’m going with 8 inches, Pittsboro 4-6 and anything further west is cooked

First call
 
LickWx said:
True, it’s always there but it’s weak , it was there too during that jan storm, just all the way down in the Caribbean. Cold air is dense , it’ll keep pushing it down
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Even in the January storm it flexed a bit in the last 36-48 hours. Hence the snow was pushed well inland after being forecast to be confined to the Coastal Plain.
 
KyloG said:
Its inevitable
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Yep, but the Euro and EPS now have gone far enough south I've got a little wiggle room. Man I hope I don't watch 20 model runs of significant accums only for this thing to rocket NW 11th hour, been a long time since I've had a big dog... c'mon K let's reel it in!
 
LickWx said:
My first forecast for totals :

Jackpot hasn’t changed, Zebulon wake forest and ne

highest amounts will be 24-28 inches in gates county, metwannabe has a real shot at 2 feet

Here in wake I’ll go with wake forest 16-20 and Zebulon 14 inches or so . Brick unfortunately will be the winner

Shane has a real shot at a foot as well but I’m going with 8 inches, Pittsboro 4-6 and anything further west is cooked

First call
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Then why are they saying an inch with the NWS 💀
 
I'd caution that pinning down/predicting coastal development isn't the same as predicting a precip shield expansion in an overrunning set up.

This doesn't have to tick back Northwest a bit. It could go any direction from here.

In fact I think a lot of times the back edge is rather sharp in these set ups and can leave some people who thought they would do well, hung out to dry. You're either in the hammer zone or you aren't.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I still believe in icing concerns for non-mountain areas. Good news for snow lovers sleet will let the snow live a few days longer than normal. Some will see ZR but focus may be shifting below Raleigh? We shall see.
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For Patreon subscribers Greg Fishel has a superb write up within the last hour on his icing concerns. I would like to post it but it’s paid subscribers content.
 
Do we still look at ensembles at 72hrs or does the deterministic have better reliability?
 
KyloG said:
The HP is just over powering


View attachment 169778This is a bad trend for the Mid Atlantic, but it could a huge trend for further south such as Northern MS, Northern AL, Northern GA and Upstate SC. This is not locked in at all yet for anybody honestly, and trends are probably gonna continue this back and forth situation. We may not know what'll happen specifically until 24 hours until the event. IF that.
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NCHighCountryWX said:
For Patreon subscribers Greg Fishel has a superb write up within the last hour on his icing concerns. I would like to post it but it’s paid subscribers content.
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can you tell us at least where he has those concerns or is just 'accumulating ice is bad' or something
 
RBR71 said:
Yep, but the Euro and EPS now have gone far enough south I've got a little wiggle room. Man I hope I don't watch 20 model runs of significant accums only for this thing to rocket NW 11th hour, been a long time since I've had a big dog... c'mon K let's reel it in!
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Aren’t you in the dead center of this snow max?

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1300m said:
I think one thing a lot of people (NWS RAH included) are sleeping on is just how strong this upper level jet is. These jet dynamics are going to really enhance the precipitation shield further west (Euro is probably doing a pretty good job of it) from the coastal.
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This is something I’ve been noticing since last night. The globals often underestimate the moisture response with this. Happened back in the 1/21 storm
 
VARunner said:
1/10 chance we have NW trend starting either tonight or tomorrow midday runs. 🤣
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It will get back NW imo to some degree. Still a few subtle changes to go. Tilt,orientaion,track heading just a smidge, 1 degree changes everything. SER placement, etc.
Energy isnt even over the conus raob yet. Small changes are coming. Could be opposite direction, but evidence weighted heavily suggest back to NW.
Again it will change some back NW Im just not sure how much. I personally just need dribble to get back to .5 qpf.
 
rburrel2 said:
It's probably bogus, but the Rgem/CMC, Ukmet, and Arpege develop some pretty serious streamer activity thursday morning. Would be enough to drop an inch or so of powder(maybe?) for some lucky people.

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This would make since. That’s pretty dynamic upper low. Very similar to 12/26/2010. That one while the coast low was bombing out and dumping on ENC, a strong upper low in the same general was producing a fairly steady light snow back across the Piedmont for most of the day
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Not true. Raleigh prob knows sleet and ZR will cut into snow. Better to wait another day before increasing snow amounts to 1-3”.
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I made a first call , what’s yours ? Or too premature? Tbf this wave hasn’t even been sampled yet and won’t be till what tomorrow afternoon?
 
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