• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Feb. 19-20

Just seems today's models are not impressive, and this one is fading some. But certainly, a long way to go. With the amount of cold it may not take much to have major impacts across NC. Hope WOW is right, and we get a NW shift like the past.
 
griteater said:
If you’re wondering why the storm is a late bloomer, here on the Euro you can see how the positive-tilt and broad-based southern stream wave over the 4 corners sharpens and turns negative tilt as it treks east into the SE states, with some weak phasing from the northern stream diving in

View attachment 169510


Also, the jet streak over the Mid-Atlantic re-strengthens with curvature, with the lower Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas in the right entrance region of the jet streak (upper level divergence promoting lift).

Now to get more modeling on board

View attachment 169511
Click to expand...
Would this be a good scenerio for NE Georgia, overall?
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
I thought only Miller B’s Transferred over Upstate / 77 to Coast like this? Miller A’s I thought were one solidified Low That just moved NE up the coast? Honestly asking not disputing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
That is correct. I know you weren't arguing. :). I was just commenting on the Miller A portion.
 
GFS ensemble has a decent look for the two most northern rows of counties in NC from West to East but really falls apart south of that
 
mx3gsr92 said:
I'm 10 miles west of Corolla, NC and can't believe we have consistency in models giving us 12"+ of snow in 96 hours while it is pouring rain and 60 degrees out right now.
Click to expand...
*puts on my SNE snow weenie troll hat*

"you guys are STEALING our RIGHTFUL snow further west!! You dont deserve it! Give it back!!"

(I've genuinely seen people from further north say ---- like this to people in VA and NC over this storm lol)
 
TarHeelSnow said:
Know your climo—always ask what usually happens in your neck of the woods with this type of setup? That helps with keeping expectations in check one way or the other.
Click to expand...
I think we’re stuck between overrunning/miller A/coastal redevelopment/upsloping west/downsloping east

It really is a mess and no matter how many analogs we think we have they all tend to come to fruition differently.
 
Foothills area, I have been around awhile 25 plus years on weather boards. One of the first was CSI, Dr dew Point and my first introduction to Joe B. Took classes at AppState when they did offer them. Seen many storms .

Miller B’s rarely work out for our area unless some hybrid type system. NW winds dry our area out and moisture jumps to the east of us unless we see a system round the base of the Apps then jump as moisture is allowed to ride /funnels up the Appalachian mountain chain.
Miller A’s for us has to a moisture transport from Texas to LA coast line’s Houston , Brownsville being the best spot longer transport. Low Track off Myrtle Beach /Will area then up the coast. This doesn’t mean that all foothill’s regions get max snow, some will still be rain . But this gives us our max potential as moisture transport is directed right at us.
There are always outliers like amped clippers or cutoffs or coastal the bend back west . But also High pressure needs to be funneling cold air down East side of Apps, Cad .

What has been happening the last few years is NW winds are drying us out , not just snow but rain as well. It may be just me but seems like we are in a drought / or flooding no in between.

This system as of latest model run has CAD setup moisture transport look to be ultimate problem . Looking as well that the cold air is pushing farther South and east quicker helping dry up moisture and having a more NW flow
 
rburrel2 said:
This is all that's keeping this area from being all snow on the 06z Euro. Every other layer is below freezing. And this area stays around 1C at 850mb for like the entire storm.

Edited to add: There's probably a stronger push of warm air around 800mb around Raleigh later on in the storm. (but maybe not, I don't have sounding data).
rburrel2 said:
This is all that's keeping this area from being all snow on the 06z Euro. Every other layer is below freezing. And this area stays around 1C at 850mb for like the entire storm.

Edited to add: There's probably a stronger push of warm air around 800mb around Raleigh later on in the storm. (but maybe not, I don't have sounding data).

View attachment 169557
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
85
Who would've thought?
 
packfan98 said:
Look

a lot of us are now on the nw edge of accumulating snow 3 days out. I’ve been in this position before and end up with sleet and freezing rain with the snow to our north. We shall see.
Click to expand...
I get it….but If I could be on the NW edge of every potential event at day 3 I would have 10x more snow over the past 20 years.

I would trade places with you.
 
NCwx1992 said:
*puts on my SNE snow weenie troll hat*

"you guys are STEALING our RIGHTFUL snow further west!! You dont deserve it! Give it back!!"

(I've genuinely seen people from further north say ---- like this to people in VA and NC over this storm lol)
Click to expand...

It’s nothing personal …. But it’s like watching a 8-9 seed make a SW 16. Yea 77 corridor is no one seed Climo wise …. But we should be making more sweet 16s than you out there and past 3 yrs we just aren’t lol. Like we’re not that much better, but SHOULD have a higher floor than NE NC. We just don’t for now that’s all. Frosty and Foothills are like that school that used to dominate but NIL hit and they’re stuck in that 4/5 seed range every year. Think KY/UCLA is ect…. Every year they’re “Back” and it just never happens anymore in the End


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
f014d2bed5148886a9a1be7ec4f86224.png


Alright this is just for snow. I did it in 3 zones.

Zone A

2-5 inches of snow best chance of being mostly snow. Remember it’s a first call this can go up.

Zone B

2-4 inches should be common.

Zone C

Is the biggest potential bust zone. Precipitation should start Wednesday morning. 38-40 degrees we have to wetbulb down to 31-33 mark before moisture shuts down in the afternoon. We will lose accumulation do to melting Dusting to 2 inches few areas east into Greenville Spartanburg counties could see 2-3 in isolated spots

I don’t normally do these but I took a stab at it


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
It’s nothing personal …. But it’s like watching a 8-9 seed make a SW 16. Yea 77 corridor is no one seed Climo wise …. But we should be making more sweet 16s than you out there and past 3 yrs we just aren’t lol. Like we’re not that much better, but SHOULD have a higher floor than NE NC. We just don’t for now that’s all


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
oh well im in the triangle haha, we havent gotten much at all -- and climo wise, i wouldnt say CLT should be getting more than the northern parts of the triangle like where im at. what i do know is, we should BOTH be getting more than we have these past few years!
 
Climo wise 20 miles to the west gets more snow due to upsloping. Downsloping for my area typically but that is with Miller Bs or Clippers. Miller A and Southern sliders do alright without that issue. The models keep showing the moisture drying up as it hits the blue ridge and reforming to the east which idk If that makes much sense with this setup unless it is overrunning rather than deep gulf moisture.
 
NCwx1992 said:
oh well im in the triangle haha, we havent gotten much at all -- and climo wise, i wouldnt say CLT should be getting more than the northern parts of the triangle like where im at. what i do know is, we should BOTH be getting more than we have these past few years!
Click to expand...
Any Metwannabe sightings? He can tell you what seed his northeastern NC neck of the woods has been.
 
NCwx1992 said:
oh well im in the triangle haha, we havent gotten much at all -- and climo wise, i wouldnt say CLT should be getting more than the northern parts of the triangle like where im at. what i do know is, we should BOTH be getting more than we have these past few years!
Click to expand...

No, CLT proper really never gets anything more than 1-2”. It’s seemed anyway , but 40 miles away , Troutman , Salisbury , Hickory , Statesville used to be areas I wanted to move to as a kid bc I lived in Cabarrus county and watched them score while I rained, over…. And over…. And over lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
It’s nothing personal …. But it’s like watching a 8-9 seed make a SW 16. Yea 77 corridor is no one seed Climo wise …. But we should be making more sweet 16s than you out there and past 3 yrs we just aren’t lol. Like we’re not that much better, but SHOULD have a higher floor than NE NC. We just don’t for now that’s all. Frosty and Foothills are like that school that used to dominate but NIL hit and they’re stuck in that 4/5 seed range every year. Think KY/UCLA is ect…. Every year they’re “Back” and it just never happens anymore in the End


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I mean, honestly, the foothills don't average that much more snow than most of the rest of us. Where I am at averages about the same as the southern foothills, for example.

1981-2010_nc_snowfall_climatology_ncsco.png
 
VARunner said:
I am having a hard time believing that the coasts of VA and NC are the bullseye for heavy snow 🤣
Click to expand...
I don’t, precip blooms east of us as the low takes a slight turn NE and they should do a lot better.
 
UKMET showing the same bullseye region that most every 12z model so far has shown -- Northern Triangle being on the SOUTHERN edge of higher total and then bullseye near the NC/VA border along the coast. i am finding it hard to believe this is where it ends up but we shall see
 
UKMET with the brutal Wake County snow gradient. It and a lot of other modeling has been pretty consistent with that, and with the heaviest totals happening from GSO north and east of there up through NE NC. Will be interesting to watch. I think there's still plenty of room for precip field expansion on the NW side, anyways, but with a late developing system getting a maximum in NE NC / SE VA makes sense.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top