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Wintry Feb. 19-20

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Update. Ray says this thing ain’t even close to being ironed out 🍿 @BIG FROSTY View attachment 169589
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Ray is right. Many of us posting together in here today have lived in the southeast much, if not all, of our lives. And for much of that time, we've posted on these forums together.

We're so fortunate to live in a time where we have the technology to do this and to see a mountain of data as it comes in, almost in real-time.

But one of the biggest obstacles we need to be constantly aware of and fight is group think, herd mentality, and data overload.

For instance, how many times have we seen, in this part of the world, big shifts within the last 24 hours? As we sit right now, we are approximately 72 hours from the event starting here. AND we're dealing with a potential phase.

The case for having this thing ironed out by the next model cycle is flimsy, IMO. We have p-types, QPF, warm noses, and storm track all to figure out.

We can draw up a general idea, but a small change in stream interaction, could mean a fairly drastic change in who sees what and how much, particularly for areas on the edge.

Ray is right.
 
FallsLake said:
Ends up being an ice storm for norther NC counties (foothills to upper coastal plain).
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Yeah I say this in jest maybe a little and yes the NAM is not good this far out but how many times have we seen thermal profiles improve on the NAM as we get closer? That’s my question and I think I already know the answer to it

NAM goes quick snow to heavy sleet/ZR into Richmond here at 12z
 
superjames1992 said:
Not worried about the LR NAM, although you can bet if it showed a big hit we’d be posting clown maps from it and celebrating all the same. 🌭
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Not because of wishcasting but because of consistency with longer range models. Right now the NAM is in a different place. An outlier if you will. Maybe it's right
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I am in the camp of "give me more precipitation, and I will take my chances with the thermals". Give me 1" of QPF and if it's a cold rain, then so be it.
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I'd say that's due to the fact you guys see more snow that most posters have and are not as worried about profiles. Once I get a catch in the boat all I care about after that is size. If my live well is empty I'll take any fish I can get, no matter how small.
 
Yeah, the 12z NAM at 78 hours has the low pressure near Atlanta, while I'm pretty sure all of the globals are closer to the coast. That is obviously going to make a difference, and if it's correct, then most of NC is likely going to rain outside of far, far north NC.

But the long range NAM has been pretty awful this year.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Yeah, the 12z NAM at 78 hours has the low pressure near Atlanta, while I'm pretty sure all of the globals are closer to the coast. That is obviously going to make a difference, and if it's correct, then most of NC is likely going to rain outside of far, far north NC.

But the long range NAM has been pretty awful this year.
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Tbh …. That would be kind of hilarious as much as Us in Further West portions have wished for Amp. Like if it actually did grant the wish so much so we go backwards rain and 32.5 again … and we get our 2.5” QPF….. as all rain


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GeorgiaGirl said:
Yeah, the 12z NAM at 78 hours has the low pressure near Atlanta, while I'm pretty sure all of the globals are closer to the coast. That is obviously going to make a difference, and if it's correct, then most of NC is likely going to rain outside of far, far north NC.

But the long range NAM has been pretty awful this year.
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The long range NAM has been awful since the day it went online.
 
It's starting to become clear what's gonna happen in the upstate I think. Snow breaks out between 6-8am with surface temps/dews around 38/30(could mix with rain for a little while until we wetbulb down 900-925mb temps). We quickly drop to 32-34 at the surface and proceed to get .15-30 of liquid that wraps up around lunch time. We will waste some qpf to melting early, and probably waste some in the middle for solar radiation and so/so rates so/so boundary layer. Sloppy dusting to 2 inches for Oconee to Pickens county and maybe as much as 2-3 inches for Greenville and Spartanburg counties because they'll have slightly colder surface conditions.(best case scenario)

I-85 will be the rough cut off where south of that line will probably be all rain. I think that line is a little less prone to shifting than normal, because any uptick in amperage is going to come with better dynamical cooling and better wetbulbing and any shift to less amperage and lower mid-level temps comes warmer surface temps and less dynamic cooling.

Obviously we're still 3 days out, so this isn't really a forecast... just a best guess of where I think we're headed.

Models that agree with this forecast perfectly right now off the top of my head are Rgem/Euro/ICON/Euro AI/GFS graphcast/Euro Graphcast... the globals(except the euro) are a little too warm for accumulations at the surface but I suspect that will resolve more in our favor when we get inside of 48hrs.
 
If we're going to get narrow corridors of p-types consistent with a Miller A, we need a Miller A. An open wave moving over the area isn't a Miller A. Once the storm begins to form and deepen, I would expect the p-types to start falling in line.
 
Wait a minute question: Where's the low that's going to be responsible for this storm and is a sampling of the low happening today or tomorrow?

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