Wintry Feb. 19-20

[rburrel2]

Well we've definitely carved out some space for a north trend.

One issue with the weaker solutions is even though height fields are lower... we aren't taking advantage of any dynamic cooling because we only have light precip. So the profiles aren't improving all that much. Some subtle shifts north/stronger will actually help to cool the column for area's right on the line.

 

[LukeBarrette]

People are worried about the NAM. Let’s not forget I proved it wrong with the last system. Just as a reminder, NAM can be good with figuring out the column about 24 hours before the storm, but outside of that it overestimates WAA and pushes precip too far north.

 

[KyloG]

People are worried about the NAM. Let’s not forget I proved it wrong with the last system. Just as a reminder, NAM can be good with figuring out the column about 24 hours before the storm, but outside of that it overestimates WAA and pushes precip too far north.

The 84 hour NAM is like the 240 hour GFS.

 

[KyloG]

EPS with a tick s/e of precip past few runs...could just be the super amped NW members getting weeded out.

And nice agreement on precip placement, amounts TBD

 

[rburrel2]

People are worried about the NAM. Let’s not forget I proved it wrong with the last system. Just as a reminder, NAM can be good with figuring out the column about 24 hours before the storm, but outside of that it overestimates WAA and pushes precip too far north.

It's good with resolving thermal profiles, but only when it's actually showing the correct 500mb solution.

I think if/when the NAM comes back to reality it's actually gonna be a good bit colder than the globals with the initial column cooling. It's already very close to starting out as heavy snow here even with the ridiculous solution it's spitting out.

 

[KyloG]

Noise or not, we need any and all slight SE shifts right now, we're not gonna wiff with no qpf.

Yeah, for sure...have we ever had a phased costal not tick NW inside 36...

But this does have a super block and off the charts cold air mass to it's west.

You can see that insane 1050hp ticking east some...and actually little stronger.

 

[KyloG]

This was the NAM at 84 hours from the Jan 21 event...it had the heaviest snows 200 miles too far north than what verfied. NAM will be useless until Tuesday...

 

[NCSNOW]

I personally dont need to see anymore SE trends, later bloomer, phasing etc. Or I will be joining the Big Frosty Quartet. Id be like Metwannabe, but that block is the real deal. NW shift is gonna be very handicapped once again with this one, me thinks.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

 

[Mitch West]

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I was about to say the warning map looked stupid but then I saw snow underlined.

 

[weather bubba]

This is all that's keeping this area from being all snow on the 06z Euro. Every other layer is below freezing. And this area stays around 1C at 850mb for like the entire storm.

Edited to add: There's probably a stronger push of warm air around 800mb around Raleigh later on in the storm. (but maybe not, I don't have sounding data).

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I was just looking at the 850 thermals for the storm on the Euro for the RDU area and they start out at -2 C and as the storm progresses and as the LP rides along the coast they warm to 0 C and 1 C. It is going to be a close call as far as what the predominant precipitation type will be for the majority this storm. There are still plenty of model runs to come but I'm still concerned about heavy freezing rain despite the positive trends that were seen yesterday.

 

[Chazwin]

I was just looking at the 850 thermals for the storm on the Euro for the RDU area and they start out at -2 C and as the storm progresses and as the LP rides along the coast they warm to 0 C and 1 C. It is going to be a close call as far as what the predominant precipitation type will be for the majority this storm. There are still plenty of model runs to come but I'm still concerned about heavy freezing rain despite the positive trends that were seen yesterday.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, most of what these models are depicting as ZR will most likely be sleet. From a climo standpoint Miller A storms only have a very narrow of ZR if any at all. Now that narrow corridor can see a significant accrual… I experienced that in January 2017.

 

[Rain Cold]

The blocking and confluence are doing work. Things should hopefully start to stabilize by tomorrow as all the players should be well-sampled.

A few more trends like the last 36-48 hours, and we're looking at a coastal event.

And for the life of me, I can't understand after all these years why anyone is worried about the 84 hr NAM.

 

[1300m]

06z Euro still too warm in the mid-levels from CLT to RDU for all snow. 850-700mb partial thicknesses at 1550m (considering cold 1000-850mb layer) would suggest predominant ptype would be a sleet/snow mix transitioning to all sleet. Soundings agree.

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

40% chance of moderate impacts from snow/ice for parts of central NC


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These guys are useless…. I learned that in Jan and even now look at them. So according to that map only RAH/Triad have an impactful event. Yea ok….. where do some of these dudes go to school to work at these places?


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[BIG FROSTY]

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The EURO was the last straw for a decent hit, like I said last night I see the writing on the wall at least for my backyard.

 

[KyloG]

6z AI v/s 6z EPS...

Can see on the EPS the west coast ridge broadening out shoving things east a tad. Other than it's fairly close. A blend of the two is probably coming...whether it's 80/20 or 50/50 or somewhere in between.

 

[Stormdoc]

6z AI v/s 6z EPS...

Can see on the EPS the west coast ridge broadening out shoving things east a tad. Other than it's fairly close. A blend of the two is probably coming...whether it's 80/20 or 50/50 or somewhere in between.


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I have been wondering if there was any way it could be shoved east enough along with a late phase so that we could get a humdinger here in central and eastern NC. None of the models have shown this, but we are still not far away from that solution.

 

[rburrel2]

This model is pretty good guys.

 

[KyloG]

I have been wondering if there was any way it could be shoved east enough along with a late phase so that we could get a humdinger here in central and eastern NC. None of the models have shown this, but we are still not far away from that solution.

I don't want to overeact to the off hour run of the Euro but it was trending they way we wanted...let's see how today's runs go.

Can see the southern energy tick a little weaker on the 6z...but it's one run.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

go ahead and take your Dramamine in the next 30-45mins. We’re about to seperate the haves and the have nots here soon. No one is safe atm

 

[KyloG]

go ahead and take your Dramamine in the next 30-45mins. We’re about to seperate the haves and the have nots here soon. No one is safe atm

Richmond is safe...it always snows in Richmond. They can't screw this up even if they wanted.

 

[JalenW25]

go ahead and take your Dramamine in the next 30-45mins. We’re about to seperate the haves and the have nots here soon. No one is safe atm

12z runs finna be very interesting I think. Grab the popcorn

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[rburrel2]

Richmond is safe...it always snows in Richmond. They can't screw this up even if they wanted.

I'm not sure if there's been a run of any model/mean in the last five days that's not jackpotted the Richmond area. I just hope to experience what that's like once in my life.

 

[JalenW25]

Richmond is safe...it always snows in Richmond. They can't screw this up even if they wanted.

I would also add probably Petersburg and Emporia is safe I would say

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[SNOWMANN]

For my Foothills peeps. I wouldn't worry to much I think we're still on tap for a low to moderate event. I'm not worried about ice anymore looking to be mostly snow as is the case with Miller As. Still got time for qpf to work it's way back west.

 

[Stormdoc]

go ahead and take your Dramamine in the next 30-45mins. We’re about to seperate the haves and the have nots here soon. No one is safe atm

True, although we may be entering that phase in “as the model world turns” where we may see more spread and difference of opinion than less!

 

[FallsLake]

12z runs finna be very interesting I think. Grab the popcorn

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Yeah, we're close enough now we should start getting closer alignments of the models today. Of course QPF and fine details will go down to the wire.

 

[SNOWMANN]

The EURO was the last straw for a decent hit, like I said last night I see the writing on the wall at least for my backyard.

I think we're ok Frosty probably not going to get a big dog but I'll gladly take another 3-5 snow.

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

go ahead and take your Dramamine in the next 30-45mins. We’re about to seperate the haves and the have nots here soon. No one is safe atm

Agree, hope all of yall that wish casted a weak toddler system into existence bc you’d rather have 1-3”
Of All snow than a memorable mixed bag get your wish…. Bc it’s coming another weak strung out piece of garbage that somehow finds the courage to blossom for the Coastal plain. This could’ve been a Banner event in GSO/Winston/Statesville/Foothills ect


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[BIG FROSTY]

I think we're ok Frosty probably not going to get a big dog but I'll gladly take another 3-5 snow.

Yes, I would be very happy with 3-5 event.

 

[SNOWMANN]

From GSP.
Different guidance brings snow totals farther
south; e.g., ECMWF more bullish with snow amounts, GFS is more like
what snow? (except for the NC mountains of course). Ensemble members
of each are slightly different but in general there does seem to be
a dividing line around the NC/SC state line. Uncertainty of course
remains quite high on extent of accumulating snow, amounts, how much
ice may (or may not) mix in. Miller-A type systems are typically
less likely to have "mixed bag" p-types with the location of the low
across the coast, so taking pattern recognition into account vs pure
model output, will be interesting to see how the forecast evolves.

 

[superjames1992]

0z Euro had the highest precip amounts and coldest at the surface of recent runs for central and eastern NC

Sfc temps in low and mid 20’s at 4pm Wed for Charlotte / Greensboro / Raleigh

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Given this storm will be happening during the day in mid-February, I think these low surface temps are really good to see. Sun angle doesn’t have nearly the effect with getting wintry precip to stick when it’s <25 degrees compared to when it’s 32. Plus, precip looks heavy which makes it less of an issue, anyways.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Update. Ray says this thing ain’t even close to being ironed out @BIG FROSTY

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

I think we're ok Frosty probably not going to get a big dog but I'll gladly take another 3-5 snow.

I am in the camp of "give me more precipitation, and I will take my chances with the thermals". Give me 1" of QPF and if it's a cold rain, then so be it.

 

[SNOWMANN]

Yes, I would be very happy with 3-5 event.

I kinda get Dec 2017 vibes with this system. Not the same setup but yesterday's Euro putting us in the bullseye shows us what's possible. I'm just thankful to have a Miller A. I think the precipitation will be there based off climatology.

 

[Nam0806]

I rarely post on discussion threads, usually only observation threads. Mainly because I can report on what I’m seeing rather than extrapolating what the models show, I will leave that to those who are more experienced than I am on that.

I have been posting and reading here since the AccuWeather forum days, and I can say this is a first. “Wishcasting” does not influence what the weather is going to be doing, and yes, it still has the ability to change even this close, for better or worse.

You can move this to banter or whatever you’d like, just giving my two cents on this post.

 

[SNOWMANN]

I am in the camp of "give me more precipitation, and I will take my chances with the thermals". Give me 1" of QPF and if it's a cold rain, then so be it.

Yeah I'm not worried about thermals I think us guys along I-40 west of 77 are looking good for mostly snow. The question is how much QPF do we get back our way. At the end of the day I like where we sit.

 

[Chazwin]

Agree, hope all of yall that wish casted a weak toddler system into existence bc you’d rather have 1-3”
Of All snow than a memorable mixed bag get your wish…. Bc it’s coming another weak strung out piece of garbage that somehow finds the courage to blossom for the Coastal plain. This could’ve been a Banner event in GSO/Winston/Statesville/Foothills ect


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I think a lot of us are in the CLT area are remembering the fact that it’s been 3 years since we’ve seen a snowfall of 1” or more. It’s been 10 years since we had a legit February storm. Also let’s remember moisture more back to the NW than what is modeled on the globals at this range.

 

[Cary_Snow95]