WolfpackHomer91
Member
I can never tell if Ross has a level of sarcasm and troll to him like me or if it’s his actual analysis …. But I like it lol
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I can never tell if Ross has a level of sarcasm and troll to him like me or if it’s his actual analysis …. But I like it lol
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interestedclimatist
Member
How yall feeling about Raleigh?
Weird CAD look with this storm. Deep Ice into SE NC but doesn’t dig deep into SC.
Edit. It does like the Pee Dee of SC with some models.
Edit. It does like the Pee Dee of SC with some models.
jmorris
Member
I think it's going to be one of those storms where the cutoff line for snow and ice is going to be at the southern border of Wake and very sharp cutoffs in amount from south to north through Wake.
wow
Member
It willIt was 24 hours agoEuro had 10+ over us. Now 3 or 4 if lucky. NW trend come back
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Even the Ol Apple App is backing off on 77 Corridor …. Said 90% yesterday and 7-10” now 4-5” and nothing Thursday anymore
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It will probably trend a little stronger as it comes in view of the short range and hi res models.
12z GFS a little SE with the transition lines but still ends up giving RDU a big sleet storm. Anybody with sleet totals?
Here's Snow Depth, which I assume includes sleet:
Here's Snow Depth, which I assume includes sleet:
This is quickly turning into a minor snow event in Western Virginia.
not trolling, just been reading hemingway. enjoy using 7 words to say what others can in 50
i don't know if the euro monsters will verify for you and that's ok. euro is a great model but i think it's overdone some storms this year. the theme (wave turning into coastal development) is unkind for your neck of the woods. i could see some enhancement with cad flow around your neck of the woods but frankly i forgot wytheville's tendencies (i used to live in and forecast for bluefield). weaker/flatter trend does not help you. if i were to offer encouragement, we've done pretty good at pulling northwest trends out of our back pocket when all looked lost this year- certainly after i had thrown dirt on things. but point remains- don't think this is your stormIt was 24 hours ago
9 times out of 10 there is a NW trend so I am not concerned just yet. Just means the difference between 3 or 4 inches and 8 or 9 inches.not trolling, just been reading hemingway. enjoy using 7 words to say what others can in 50
i don't know if the euro monsters will verify for you and that's ok. euro is a great model but i think it's overdone some storms this year. the theme (wave turning into coastal development) is unkind for your neck of the woods. i could see some enhancement with cad flow around your neck of the woods but frankly i forgot wytheville's tendencies (i used to live in and forecast for bluefield). weaker/flatter trend does not help you. if i were to offer encouragement, we've done pretty good at pulling northwest trends out of our back pocket when all looked lost this year- certainly after i had thrown dirt on things. but point remains- don't think this is your storm
12z Canadian backed off QPF a little (from 0z) but still has 5" at RDU and then up to 18" in NE NC.
No change from me, still thinking ice Charlotte to Raleigh and someone will see ice storm. This was never a big dog for the mtns&foothills, it’s always been 1-3” or 3-6” with punches of warm nose sleet. We should know more tonight as the current system will have cleared overhead. Would be nice to see bigger than 6” snow storm but too much in the “it will go wrong” category past week.
Miller A's have traditionally produced the biggest snowstorms for WNC and Western Va. WNC and Western Va are usually not in a screw zone unless the storm is weak or tracks far to the south. This particular storm may indeed favor the NE part of the state. There have been so few Miller A storms lately anyway.
jmorris
Member
GFS continues to be the least impressive while the Canadian and Euro look to be the most impressive in regards to snow versus ice for central NC. I know I feel better with the Euro on my side.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Means nothing but yea I’m
Gonna try a positive post for once
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this winter it seems that this stage, around the twilight of the CAMs range 3-4 days out is when we usually hit the QPF nadir before things ramp back up a little
That's a really pathetic precip shield directly north of the low. But it is a weak low.
blueheronNC
Member
A bit worried about coastal convection racing out ahead and cutting off moisture influx inland. Will this dry slot before it even gets going?
jmorris
Member
WolfpackHomer91
Member
I thought only Miller B’s Transferred over Upstate / 77 to Coast like this? Miller A’s I thought were one solidified Low That just moved NE up the coast? Honestly asking not disputing.
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Despite RGEM ptype maps showing sleet, RGEM soundings are clearly snow all hours at RDU (hr 81 got close, but would be mostly snow). P.S. Certainly dangerous (unwise) to be analyzing RGEM soundings at the end of the run, but for now, it's all we've got as a first look at thermals. RGEM most likely too cold at the surface, but our biggest concern is aloft.
jmorris
Member
if OBX scores another 8+ inches while central and Western NC get nary an inch or two, i swear to god...
Miller A storms usually hit western VA hard. This one is too far south and too flat. more like a southern slider than a true Miller A. Plus the qpf is not that impressive and low strength is not either.
Cary_Snow95
Member
That’s 00z
I could be wrong but this appears to be moving from a classic Miller A to just overrunning followed by strengthening low once it hits the Atlantic. A weak overrunning at that, given the low totals west.
Dude, that’s just so beautiful. Good rates, 23F, below freezing through the whole column. Really starting to like where we’re sitting now. May not be as big of a QPF bomb but that was always going to result in more ZR/IP, anyways.
too many people are moving here
mx3gsr92
Member
I'm 10 miles west of Corolla, NC and can't believe we have consistency in models giving us 12"+ of snow in 96 hours while it is pouring rain and 60 degrees out right now.