Looks like the EC AI came in with another small QPF increase. Last 3 runs 
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Growing support (00z Euro, 00z GEFS, and the EC AI) increased QPF for central/eastern NC and SE VA
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
More QPF but colder temps with this setup so far. It’s hard to believe we’re getting this combination, but with a legit cold airmass nearby, it makes sense. I still worry about the ice storm potential this setup has especially the further south you go.
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
NAM is almost a miller B evolution lol, horrible model
Icon continues to move the snowprint SE 
Brent
Member
Winter Storm Watch here
Ignoring the NAM
Ignoring the NAM
From RAH:
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 211 AM Sunday...
The main weather story for the long term period will be the winter
storm system on Wednesday that may have lingering impacts through
the late-week period. The complex upper pattern driving all of this
is a deepening s/w trough over the Midwest that will close off and
move east across the Great Lakes. Deep layer ascent invof the right
entrance region of the eastern jet streak will prompt sfc low
development over the northern Gulf Coast which will become a Miller-
A type sfc low that moves from the FL Panhandle northeastward up
along the Southeast coast. The ascent with the aforementioned jet
streak and sfc low coupled with the antecedent cold airmass over our
area will result in a period of mixed wintry precip types with the
usual distribution of snow across our northern counties, rain
across our far south and southeast counties, and a mix of sleet and
freezing rain in between...beginning Wednesday morning and
continuing through at least Wednesday evening. It`s definitely worth
noting that the ECMWF is much colder than the GFS, so it suggests
that wintry p-types will occur across our entire CWA, even our far
south and southeast zones.
What`s interesting about the models` evolution of this system is
that there`s good agreement with the overall pattern but differences
in the QPF and warm nose strength and placement, and ultimately p-
types and amounts for the various parts of our CWA. Interestingly...
the right entrance region of the eastern jet streak and the left
exit region of the western jet streak do not overlap...so the models
show that our area gets dry-slotted pretty quickly. Yet the ECMWF
and Canadian have much higher QPF than the GFS. Needless to say, if
the wetter and colder ECMWF verifies, this winter storm system could
have major or perhaps even extreme impacts for central NC, both due
to snow accum across our north and northwest zones and ice accum for
our south and east zones. The GFS on the other hand, while
impactful, would result in much less dire amounts and impacts for
central NC. There`s still plenty of time for things to change, so
stay tuned!
Thursday and Friday now look to be dry with well below-normal temps
as the next cold high pressure builds in behind the departing low.
Another s/w trough will move across the Miss Valley on Saturday, but
right now the models keep the developing sfc low and deep moisture
suppressed to our south.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 211 AM Sunday...
The main weather story for the long term period will be the winter
storm system on Wednesday that may have lingering impacts through
the late-week period. The complex upper pattern driving all of this
is a deepening s/w trough over the Midwest that will close off and
move east across the Great Lakes. Deep layer ascent invof the right
entrance region of the eastern jet streak will prompt sfc low
development over the northern Gulf Coast which will become a Miller-
A type sfc low that moves from the FL Panhandle northeastward up
along the Southeast coast. The ascent with the aforementioned jet
streak and sfc low coupled with the antecedent cold airmass over our
area will result in a period of mixed wintry precip types with the
usual distribution of snow across our northern counties, rain
across our far south and southeast counties, and a mix of sleet and
freezing rain in between...beginning Wednesday morning and
continuing through at least Wednesday evening. It`s definitely worth
noting that the ECMWF is much colder than the GFS, so it suggests
that wintry p-types will occur across our entire CWA, even our far
south and southeast zones.
What`s interesting about the models` evolution of this system is
that there`s good agreement with the overall pattern but differences
in the QPF and warm nose strength and placement, and ultimately p-
types and amounts for the various parts of our CWA. Interestingly...
the right entrance region of the eastern jet streak and the left
exit region of the western jet streak do not overlap...so the models
show that our area gets dry-slotted pretty quickly. Yet the ECMWF
and Canadian have much higher QPF than the GFS. Needless to say, if
the wetter and colder ECMWF verifies, this winter storm system could
have major or perhaps even extreme impacts for central NC, both due
to snow accum across our north and northwest zones and ice accum for
our south and east zones. The GFS on the other hand, while
impactful, would result in much less dire amounts and impacts for
central NC. There`s still plenty of time for things to change, so
stay tuned!
Thursday and Friday now look to be dry with well below-normal temps
as the next cold high pressure builds in behind the departing low.
Another s/w trough will move across the Miss Valley on Saturday, but
right now the models keep the developing sfc low and deep moisture
suppressed to our south.
&&
Brent
Member
Our odds of a major winter storm have increased a lot since yesterday
6z GFS is basically identical to the 0z run. A slight shift south of the precip types. Lots of sleet for RDU which makes me personally happy (...very little ZR).
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Last frame of the 6z RGEM, snow line cuts across the northern half of NC
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0z GFS ZR totals at hour 90:
6z GFS at hour 84:
6z GFS at hour 84:
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
40% chance of moderate impacts from snow/ice for parts of central NC
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Brent
Member
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
5 run trend of the GEFS showing a little stronger jet streak in the right entrance region over the Carolinas (forcing for lift)
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rburrel2
Member
06z GEFS punching ice a lot deeper in to SC.
packfan98
Moderator
Yeah, definitely colder at the surface. 850’s looked worse unfortunately.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
84,90,96 hr timestamps for the 6z GEFS: blender of p-types…messy winter storm
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If there's a system that will shift NW 11th hour, it's an amped up storm like this. Personally I'd live to see it keep shifting S/SE next 24-48 hrs to give me wiggle room when it comes back NW
Noise or not, we need any and all slight SE shifts right now, we're not gonna wiff with no qpf.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
992 LP on the 00z run, didn’t realize it was that strong till now… interesting
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06z was a smidge weaker but also a smidge warmer aloft, transition line slight NW jog. More in line with classic SW/NE orientation splitting Wake down the middle
rburrel2
Member
06z Rgem was slightly stronger/more qpf than the 00z run. Thermals stayed the same if not better though. Good signs. 00z CMC in there for comparison.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I personally like that look of the RGEM, just don’t know long that’s going to last.
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Shift north with the snow, don’t like that…probably means more ice/warmer aloft . This has been my concern the whole time with ice storm potential.
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rburrel2
Member
It could be on to something b/c it matches up very well with the Euro AI/Graphcast.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I definitely hope it holds or gets colder…much rather have more of a snow look than ice
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
6z Euro fram ice estimate
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rburrel2
Member
This is all that's keeping this area from being all snow on the 06z Euro. Every other layer is below freezing. And this area stays around 1C at 850mb for like the entire storm.
Edited to add: There's probably a stronger push of warm air around 800mb around Raleigh later on in the storm. (but maybe not, I don't have sounding data).
Edited to add: There's probably a stronger push of warm air around 800mb around Raleigh later on in the storm. (but maybe not, I don't have sounding data).
packfan98
Moderator
6z eps went the wrong direction like the op
Pilotwx
Member
Foothills region is drying up quickly on all models . Not good , at this rate we will have very limited moisture to work with . Plenty of time to change , but a trend is a trend .
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I think you’re just seeing a model consensus forming of 3-5 inches.
rburrel2
Member
Looks like more of a qpf issue than anything else.
rburrel2
Member
06z EPS way weaker/drier.
rburrel2
Member
Meanwhile, the Goofus mean won't back down on heavy qpf. Strange.
Pilotwx
Member
If you look back to SW NC mountains you can see it drying up along the foothills region . Working its way NW .