Wintry Feb. 19-20

[WolfpackHomer91]

Yeah it not just wanting a memorable storm, it’s that I don’t faith in whatever is modeled to get west of 77 to actually verify once this hits the coast. Basically we get our qpf from when the surface low is to our SW and S. Once it gets to the coast, the precip generally ends quick, unless the 850 low comes through and we get in on the deformation band. And that’s rolling dice.

I’m getting picky I know, but just rooting for the best for mby. And I think I’ve seen it on the 18z euro. lol. Check please!

Agree, idc if we mix…. I’ve said it 100x to have something great you gotta take some risk. Amp it all the way to 20 and let’s see what happens. Give me my 2” QPF and temps 24-28 and I will take my chances


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[NCwx1992]

GFS finally said to CNC

 

[Avalanche]

anyone plan on chasing this storm and where do you think the sweet spot will be within NC?

Might have to wait a few days before determining that.

 

[NCwx1992]

Roxboro. It's always Roxboro

yup, was gonna suggest roxboro or over towards pilot mountain / mt airy

 

[Shawn]

Good news for CAE wanting to avoid ice (like the euro had): The 00z GFS has us from the upper 30s to 40s for the precipitation.

 

[iGRXY]

Agree, idc if we mix…. I’ve said it 100x to have something great you gotta take some risk. Amp it all the way to 20 and let’s see what happens. Give me my 2” QPF and temps 24-28 and I will take my chances


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The problem y’all fail to realize is, you start amping it up you’re going to have to lose the confluence to the northeast. You lose that you’re pretty much losing your cold air source. So you can forget those 24-28 temps and you’ll be fighting for your life between 32-35 cold rain. That line is razor thin already and becomes almost nonexistent with over amping.

 

[NCSnowFan777]

GFS finally said to CNC

I’m now interested in what the ensembles will say next.

 

[astroworld123]

Might have to wait a few days before determining that.

New to this forum and modeling, but would the timing of precip be closer to starting Wednesday afternoon or morning? Based on current models


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[Shawn]

00z GFS ZR:

 

[CaryWx]

less qpf? hopefully we are not trending to little moisture with the continued cold press

 

[NCSNOW]

Canadian gonna be decent hit here in a few. Snow Al, GA

 

[iGRXY]

Good news for CAE wanting to avoid ice (like the euro had): The 00z GFS has us from the upper 30s to 40s for the precipitation.

Counting on the model that is by far the worst for CAD depiction along with the ICON probably isn’t the hill you want to be on tbh

 

[Shawn]

00z GFS Kuchera Snow:

 

[Shawn]

Counting on the model that is by far the worst for CAD depiction along with the ICON probably isn’t the hill you want to be on tbh

The hill I want to be on, I don't want to slip. So I will pull for whatever does NOT give my area freezing rain and damage.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

less qpf? hopefully we are not trending to little moisture with the continued cold press

0.5” line runs through wake. Dries out west of there

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

The Rgem is stupid cold... wow. Only concern is how much precip.
View attachment 169446

View attachment 169445

For the upstate I'd like to see the whole thing shift south 100 miles then amp!

 

[NCSNOW]

ENC, SD gonna love canadian. Foot plus coastal plain

Martin county speacil

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

The problem y’all fail to realize is, you start amping it up you’re going to have to lose the confluence to the northeast. You lose that you’re pretty much losing your cold air source. So you can forget those 24-28 temps and you’ll be fighting for your life between 32-35 cold rain. That line is razor thin already and becomes almost nonexistent with over amping.

So be it, I will go skiing with Jimmy or stay Frostys place. But .3-.5” QPF prolly won’t even be any cool
Rates ect def no CAPE for extra lift with that weak baby low sliding OTS under us. Plus selfishly I don’t wanna see dudes way down in Freaking Greenville NC jackpot again, enough of that…. There I said it, bash me for not being a nice neighbor


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[Mike_96]

Yikes… Canadian with a drastic drop in qpf

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I like it. First CMC run with snow in NC solidly. Gotta get the snow first then worry about QPF later.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

If I'm going to die on model runs, I said earlier need to stop the southward trend so far GFS and ICON has cut my totals in half. Getting a bad feeling about this now, that's why I never get excited anymore until maybe 2 days before event. I feel a big dry slot in the foothills.

 

[Shawn]

Canadian nails some with ZR.

 

[jmorris]

GFS not as good as the last Euro with more ice. Canadian is colder than the GFS and has more snow and sleet.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nice

 

[NCSNOW]

Looking at Icon, Canadian, at 0z. Gives euro soloution lot of support. See what ukmet says in a few. GFS is worthless outside 48 hours at best

 

[jmorris]

Canadian goes from snow to sleet and back to snow for RDU north.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

anyone plan on chasing this storm and where do you think the sweet spot will be within NC?

Beech/Sugar mtn

You get the main event and the NW flow after

They never lose up there

 

[Mahomeless]

View attachment 169452

Toasty 850’s south of I40

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC has convective snow showers under the ULL the day after as well. Pretty cool

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

Toasty 850’s south of I40

Below 0 is toasty ?


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[jmorris]

 

[rburrel2]

I don't hate how the ukmet looks.

 

[NCSNOW]

If I'm going to die on model runs, I said earlier need to stop the southward trend so far GFS and ICON has cut my totals in half. Getting a bad feeling about this now, that's why I never get excited anymore until maybe 2 days before event. I feel a big dry slot in the foothills.

I wouldnt sweat it. They , models mentioned, will amp up over next 24 to 36 hrs.

 

[KyloG]

Euro completely leading the way. Hopefully it holds overnight.

 

[NCwx1992]

HUGE pull south on silly ole Canadian.

Northern Mid-Atlantic / SNE gotta be punching air right now haha

 

[jmorris]

Canadian keeps the freezing rain south and east of Wake.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

I wouldnt sweat it. They will amp up over next 24 to 36 hrs.

I go from 12" at 12z to 2" or less at 0z yeah! That's ICON,GFS,GEM lol

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

HUGE pull south on silly ole Canadian.

Northern Mid-Atlantic / SNE gotta be punching air right now haha

Western NC too


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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’m not sold on the idea that a low qpf system is on the table

Too much ridge to work with. I think NW trend could get brutal in the next day or two. This isn’t a coastal

 

[KyloG]

I wouldnt sweat it. They , models mentioned, will amp up over next 24 to 36 hrs.

Yeah that big 50/50 establishes Monday into Tuesday and how many times have we seen those over modeled only to lead to a NW trend the last 36 hours