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Wintry Feb. 19-20

griteater said:
Lot of good analysis on here as usual. The continued early trend of more Atlantic confluence moving the east coast heights south is the one that is most interesting to me (better starting point for the cold air)

Safe to assume that the Euro suite is taking a lead role here, but we still need to see more model consensus to gain confidence in the forecast

Precip duration and 500mb evolution suggest high end totals will be tough to achieve, though more potential as you get closer to the coast

Temperature wise, my belief is that these colder trends will stabilize by tomorrow and climb north some Mon-Tue

Here’s the 850 low track and temperatures on the 18z Euro. Green to blue is the 0 deg C line. Gotta believe the hi-res models will add warm nose warmth aloft along that line once they come into view

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So….warmer, lower qpf, except toward the coast. 😔

Edit to say that’s fair, seems to be a quick mover and a late bloomer, and has for a while. But hopefully it at least stays cold.
 
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SnowNiner said:
Yeah my apple app is calling for 5-7 wed, and 1-2 thurs. 😂
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It’s got me getting 1-3” on Wednesday and 3-4” on Thursday. I at least think that’s possible… it was going absolutely insane at this time frame for both the 1/10 and 1/21 storms.
 
RBR71 said:
Latest NBM, remember it is run off the prior suite of model data so this would be based off 12z. Snow footprint slowly sliding south, love to see it
Ice accrual pretty far south and east too

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ohhhh this is good. especially considering how some models are still staking a claim of a total snow whiff across NC so those configurations are part of the average displayed through the NBM. also such a relief to see lower numbers for zr across the Carolinas
 
jmorris said:
Last panel of the NAM.

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Yea…. Kind of North…. But that tells me it’s gonna follow the juiced/ Bomb scenario more than likely. Once it hits the wedge it was gonna explode into something nice next few frames…. Someone mentioned a Banana HP the other day and how that would be cool, I feel like we had a Banana in 2014 but idk I remember the word banana being mentioned by BurgerTime specifically


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Tsappfrog20 said:
It’s starting to trend towards the euro with this look right


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Actually it's not trending anywhere, it's more jumping all around and less consistent. Already not the best model by any stretch and this just confirms it's another tool to look at but not to be taken too seriously
 
RGEM would have just likely been a completely thrown out solution if it wasn't for euro attempting to show a very similar scenerio... Just a weird pattern, I personally think it's going to be extremely difficult to figure out the ULL interactions. But we'll see
 
rburrel2 said:
Losing this storm to lack of qpf is becoming a legit concern. At least for everyone outside of Eastern NC/ Southeast Virginia.
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I’d rather go colder and flatter then take my chances with 0.2-0.4 QPF over-performing as mostly snow tbh… this isn’t gonna be like the gulf mauler so where we’re trying to pull moisture out of dry bones, still gonna be some juice, typically it does tick NW at the last minute because the subtropical high to the SE is usually under modeled until the hour 48 range
 
My selfish concerns with a light event here is I'm not sure i'll be fine with surface temps/boundary layer. Per the Euro/Rgem/CMC i'd be fine. Most other modeling says i'll struggle to get to freezing Wednesday and very light rates probably won't help that situation.

TLDR: I've got a lot of needles to thread over here unfortunately.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’d rather go colder and flatter then take my chances with 0.2-0.4 QPF over-performing as mostly snow tbh… this isn’t gonna be like the gulf mauler so where we’re trying to pull moisture out of dry bones, still gonna be some juice, typically it does tick NW at the last minute because the subtropical high to the SE is usually under modeled until the hour 48 range
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Agree to disagree. Amp it, if I have to chase I’ll chase. I’m going out 2025 winter with a bang. This is already a late blooming storm, miller A that blows up in the Atlantic. In my experience these do not perform well west of 77. I don’t want this thing any weaker.
 
SnowNiner said:
Agree to disagree. Amp it, if I have to chase I’ll chase. I’m going out 2025 winter with a bang. This is already a late blooming storm, miller A that blows up in the Atlantic. In my experience these do not perform well west of 77. I don’t want this thing any weaker.
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Same here. I wanna see something memorable. At this point, not sure how good of a decision it is to go up closer to DC though. guess we will have to wait and see
 
SnowNiner said:
Agree to disagree. Amp it, if I have to chase I’ll chase. I’m going out 2025 winter with a bang. This is already a late blooming storm, miller A that blows up in the Atlantic. In my experience these do not perform well west of 77. I don’t want this thing any weaker.
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I've already had a winter storm with .15" liquid. It would be nice to see a legit storm. Those almost always carry ice for some portion of the area.

I am rooting for a big storm. But nobody cares about that and it doesn't matter to the weather. We get what we get, and at this point, we're still 4 days out and things can go in multiple directions.
 
astroworld123 said:
Same here. I wanna see something memorable. At this point, not sure how good of a decision it is to go up closer to DC though. guess we will have to wait and see
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Yeah it not just wanting a memorable storm, it’s that I don’t have faith in whatever is modeled to get west of 77 to actually verify once this hits the coast. Basically we get our qpf from when the surface low is to our SW and S. Once it gets to the coast, the precip generally ends quick, unless the 850 low comes through and we get in on the deformation band. And that’s rolling dice.

I’m getting picky I know, but just rooting for the best for mby. And I think I’ve seen it on the 18z euro. lol. Check please!
 
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