broken025
Member
Dec 2018 was awful. 33 and rain for hours.
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You can see the confluence in the Atlantic is stronger with the frontal feature poking down more with the isobars poking south more
Tsappfrog20
Member
Yea some of yall got the shaft but it was glorious in Wake Forest I had 7 inches
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the cut off for good snow vs nothing in NC was sharp on that one; i got 8+ in durham county
Tsappfrog20
Member
Even on the AI, Atlantic confluence is getting stronger 
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
I just wish the CAD could trend closer to Euro Operational and ENS and bring and bring even North GA something.
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- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
10” in American village from that one. 8” Sunday and 2” with the wave on Monday.
My grid is saying “Heavy Snow Storm” so we’ll blindly go with that for now 
SnowNiner
Member
CLT is always right there on the fringes, 85 line. I’m about 40 miles north of center city and I feel like I’m on the outside looking in.
Glad to see 18z euro double down, not just a one run fluke. But I’m completely ready for it to stop
used to live right around there! by dec 2018 i was more north durham but i was near american village for that solid half foot dump of snow in jan 2017
NWS predominent weather forecast taking on a bit of different look
This was a day or two ago:
Now:
This was a day or two ago:
Now:
just checked my phone app for the lols, and it's currently "calling for" 7-8 inches wednesday and another 5-7 inches on top of that thursday lmao.
SnowNiner
Member
If you love tracking potential winter threats in the SE region, this was one of the best days in a long time.
touche. especially after last night looked BLEAK for NC
Foreca App has me getting 12" so I'll stick with it for now. snows from 8am Wednesday to 1am Thursday temps 23-27
This is odd. They're backing off?
weather bubba
Member
My phone weather app was calling for seven to nine inches earlier this afternoon. That was before the latest promising model runs.
You guys and your phone apps smh 
i dont think theyre backing off at all -- the shift from earlier forecast map to current one shows that they initially had a huge swath of NC clocked for only rain/zr, with a very small NW section of all snow. in the latest map, they've expanded snow/rain or snow/zr mix to a way bigger area, even extending down to the tip top of SC
I got 6 inches here imby for that one,
Guy I worked with at the time lived in Simpsonville and said they had flurries.
It didn't cover the tops of the cars in his subdivision.
That's not the only time I've seen sharp a gradient in GVL County.
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But it's so purity! Foreca really is a pretty decent app most of the time. Not saying it is this time by no means, but it matches up pretty close with models today.You guys and your phone apps smh
NCSNOW
Member
The precip start, finish times are accurate and save one from having to convert 0z etc hours.
Tsappfrog20
Member
How is the NAM looking?
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Several spell corrections in there that was wrong.
I edited it...
I told my gf about this potential threat a few days ago. She nodded politely then changed the subject.You guys and your phone apps smh
She matter of factly brought it up again today, but only because a snowflake showed up in her phone app for Wed.
While were on the subject, my weather app says 14'' combined for Wed/Thurs.
SnowNiner
Member
Well because of the euro and the EPS. We weren’t tracking smoke jobs from the Canadian this time. This one actually has a chance.
Lot of good analysis on here as usual. The continued early trend of more Atlantic confluence moving the east coast heights south is the one that is most interesting to me (better starting point for the cold air)
Safe to assume that the Euro suite is taking a lead role here, but we still need to see more model consensus to gain confidence in the forecast
Precip duration and 500mb evolution suggest high end totals will be tough to achieve, though more potential as you get closer to the coast
Temperature wise, my belief is that these colder trends will stabilize by tomorrow and climb north some Mon-Tue
Here’s the 850 low track and temperatures on the 18z Euro. Green to blue is the 0 deg C line. Gotta believe the hi-res models will add warm nose warmth aloft along that line once they come into view
Had a friend call me the other day and said his apple app weather was showing 19-21 inches in Winston Salem lol
jmorris
Member
Slow.
jmorris
Member
Last panel of the NAM.
@wxBradley respecting the setup 
but it looks nice n spicy now that all 84 hrs are in
unless things start drastically trending back the other way, i dont see GSO getting predominantly a wintry mix. im HOPING even here in durham/chapel hill/raleigh proper we wont have too much mixing, but i know thats partially just selfish hopes n dreams. i genuinely dont see a big mixing event happening for greensboro though, completely unbiased take there.
I’d venture to say that’s not a textbook low placement for the 85 crowd. But it’s the 84hr NAM and what not. I’m sure it will shift south of PCB in a day or two..
