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Wintry Feb. 19-20

SD said:
Warm nose is pretty weak in a lot of that freezing rain area on the euro. Probably a lot of sleet pretty far S vs the model depiction marine as far S as the NC SC border
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I personally think that 85% of what these models are depicting as ZR is sleet. Miller A storms just don’t have that wide an area of ZR
 
NCwx1992 said:
for my fellow NC folks -- this is a great account that is consistently very responsible about not declaring things until trends and confidence have really set in; and this was the map they posted an hour ish ago with their current thinking: View attachment 169362
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That's a classic setup pattern for many of the winter weather events in North Carolina and would be hard to bet against. Raleigh is usually right on the precipitation transition line one way or the other.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Seems like QPF took a bit of a hit on the 18z EPS View attachment 169375
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Ok, we’re going to have to stop right there please. 🙏. The cruelest thing this could do is trend to a snowstorm I haven’t seen in 20 years, then fade away to flurries. That crap can’t happen please. .5 inches is minimum thank you. Looks like we’ve reached the best case scenario for mby.
 
CaryWx said:
Totals dropped a little due to less qpf guessing
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I think so.

I know some people are going to read this and roll their their eyes but flatter here isn't a bad thing. Models particularly the globals are going to be too low on their qpf, much better to get a flatter system and keep some of the warm nose at bay versus getting amped which will yield
watching the warm nose race to Roanoke Wednesday morning
 
1300m said:
This is 1-2 more ticks away from a CLT to RDU crush job. Those saying this is a VA special are dangerously close to completely busting unless they're talking about southeastern VA.
View attachment 169390
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im still seeing accounts with 1k+ followers over on X just this past hour or two claiming it is "a DC to Philly hammer" lmao. NoVa/DC likely to be the northern edge at this point, not bullseye
 
1300m said:
This is 1-2 more ticks away from a CLT to RDU crush job. Those saying this is a VA special are dangerously close to completely busting unless they're talking about southeastern VA.
View attachment 169390
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If completely busting means dropping from a foot to 8 inches with high ratios then I’m for it. However, my gut says that the best baroclinic zone can only trend so far SE in this setup. Not to mention the initial thump in SW VA is not based heavily in 850 FGEN, more in 700…
I’ll die on this hill, hope I’m proven wrong.
 
weather bubba said:
That's a classic setup pattern for many of the winter weather events in North Carolina and would be hard to bet against. Raleigh is usually right on the precipitation transition line one way or the other.
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This is true to an extent.. But over the last few years these CAD events really haven't worked as well.. All we can do is hope that it works out and becomes a classic CAD winter storm.. But recently they've become much less common.. I've been wondering recently just where did our Central NC, Upstate SC and NE GA CAD systems go?
 
LukeBarrette said:
If completely busting means dropping from a foot to 8 inches with high ratios then I’m for it. However, my gut says that the best baroclinic zone can only trend so far SE in this setup. Not to mention the initial thump in SW VA is not based heavily in 850 FGEN, more in 700…
I’ll die on this hill, hope I’m proven wrong.
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Good luck. If this thing keeps trending flatter much of Virginia won't be getting 8".
 
packfan98 said:
What is keeping the euro so juiced up to go along with the south trends? Seems like other models are trending south with less precip. If I recall correctly, the Euro and Nam may have been too juiced up for one of the recent mid-Atlantic storms and met the GFS in the middle.
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Whatever gulf scenario gives us the most moisture over the south, typically wins out. Normally it’s in the form of rain but sometimes the stars align and you get these opportunities.
 
NCwx1992 said:
View attachment 169379

Euro ensembles just an absolute beauty to look at for folks in the row of upper 2-3 counties of NC
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That’s some wicked contouring on the EPS..gonna be a messy storm I think and someone is going to experience a lot of pain when it’s all said and done. Fun times ahead though.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Oh my that’s a big jump southwest on the 18z UKMET with the confluence to our NE. Huge nod to the euro View attachment 169393View attachment 169392
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Much different than a few days ago when that cold lobe was stretched out into two parts. It’s like the one that was over the northern plains shifted east, fed the 50/50 low, and really allowed these runs to start to manifest. I’m not sure it’s done either.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
I know everybody is wondering what JB has to say about it 🤣 So I'll tell ya, He says the storm cuts inside Hatteras. gets to the bench mark 40/70, and he want change his forecast until Tuesday if he has to. ⛄ I95 special who would've thunk it....
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He did say weeks ago he believed there would be a big storm during this timeframe when models showed nothing.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
I know everybody is wondering what JB has to say about it 🤣 So I'll tell ya, He says the storm cuts inside Hatteras. gets to the bench mark 40/70, and he want change his forecast until Tuesday if he has to. ⛄ I95 special who would've thunk it....
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Of course. Those weenies think every storm is going to hit 40/70.

You play to win the game!
 
LukeBarrette said:
If completely busting means dropping from a foot to 8 inches with high ratios then I’m for it. However, my gut says that the best baroclinic zone can only trend so far SE in this setup. Not to mention the initial thump in SW VA is not based heavily in 850 FGEN, more in 700…
I’ll die on this hill, hope I’m proven wrong.
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I think SW VA will ultimately be ok either way. I won’t be at all surprised to south trends continue for a couple days simply because of how strong blocking has gotten to the north and the fact the confluence continues to trend stronger as well. We have one of the strongest -AOs we’ve seen.
 
@Myfrotho704_ you mentioned Dec 2018?

Pain. Biggest bust i’ve ever seen here. By a long shot

Backend dusting with this radar depiction all through the night. I almost cried. Travelers Rest got 6+. About a 15-20min drive from my house. This was late arriving cold and it still leaves a bad taste in my mouth.IMG_5084.jpeg
 
ATHGA said:
Hi All, first time poster, long time stalker on this page. Love all the information I have gained over the years in getting into this lovely and frustrating hobby with you all. I have a trip to Pinehurst next weekend and am fretting these trends. Can someone please post the ice maps for the latest euro run? Thanks in advance!! The one and only time I am rooting for a shift north, of course…🤦
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Welcome to the zoo!

Here you go. Going to need to bring a generator to Number 2!

ecmwf-deterministic-se-frzr_total-0052800.png
 
A little different than 2018 as modeled I think. That was a strictly heavy cold rain/snow setup here. Euro has a tight contoured snow zone with ZR well south of that line. I don’t totally buy it yet but that’s what it is at the moment.
 
Good trends for our region. Like Fro said, this gives us some wiggle room later, if we need it. I know what SD said, and I don't disagree...models generally underdo precip and also CAD. But I really don't want to see this thing trend to an area-wide 0.1 - 0.3" QPF again with the exception of the OB, where 22.0" QPF will inevitably fall.
 
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