• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Feb. 19-20

Interesting day of model runs, just catching up. EPS is obviously the biggest eye opener, nice and cold, strong, and south. Gets mby in the all snow area, barely. But generally I’m still right on the cutoff fringe of the clt region. Hope to see that colder trend continue and the snow to extend into SC.

The rest of the models are pretty meh to me. Cold but weak, and late bloomers. I just don’t believe in major regional ZR so it’s either sleet or rain imo. Hope to see them all trend to EPS.

Excellent to have the EPS as the best outcome. Please don’t break our hearts! And don’t pick now to be wrong!
 
UNCSC said:
That was a big step toward Euro guidance and rest of models. GFS usually takes 3-4 runs to catch up with the Euro
Click to expand...
I actually disagree here, Euro guidance relies on the southern shortwave to become strong by its connection to the northern vort. The GFS deflects the shortwave our direction and does not have a connection to northern vort until the low is already well off the coast. So the question is, do you want flat and progressive where temps can be colder from a weaker system…
or do you want a strong dynamic system where CAD is much stronger and storm is tilted in a way to develop snow well to the west and NW of the low.
 
LukeBarrette said:
I actually disagree here, Euro guidance relies on the southern shortwave to become strong by its connection to the northern vort. The GFS deflects the shortwave our direction and does not have a connection to northern vort until the low is already well off the coast. So the question is, do you want flat and progressive where temps can be colder from a weaker system…
or do you want a strong dynamic system where CAD is much stronger and storm is tilted in a way to develop snow well to the west and NW of the low.
Click to expand...
I’ll take option B
 
LukeBarrette said:
I actually disagree here, Euro guidance relies on the southern shortwave to become strong by its connection to the northern vort. The GFS deflects the shortwave our direction and does not have a connection to northern vort until the low is already well off the coast. So the question is, do you want flat and progressive where temps can be colder from a weaker system…
or do you want a strong dynamic system where CAD is much stronger and storm is tilted in a way to develop snow well to the west and NW of the low.
Click to expand...

The latter please. No more weak sauce, go big or go home. If I sleet, give me it all. I want 2 inches precip. Give me the euro even if it amps too much. Just my opinion.
 
LukeBarrette said:
I actually disagree here, Euro guidance relies on the southern shortwave to become strong by its connection to the northern vort. The GFS deflects the shortwave our direction and does not have a connection to northern vort until the low is already well off the coast. So the question is, do you want flat and progressive where temps can be colder from a weaker system…
or do you want a strong dynamic system where CAD is much stronger and storm is tilted in a way to develop snow well to the west and NW of the low.
Click to expand...

I mentioned this, this AM…. Back in 85 Corridor and up Into the elevations…. You absolutely won’t the amped juiced tracks … even if it means sacrificing some of that 1-2” QPF to ICE. Those of us West of Greensboro - Troy (73 Corridor) in NC absolutely don’t want the weaker slider. If you want to “Run with the big dogs” you have to take your chances on the amped / Inland ish tracks and ride that transition line! juice the QPF. .25 -.35” QPF won’t cut it back here imo like some of these weak slider garbage solutions are showing. Give me The juice monster like Canadian / EURO are showing with that Low over Georgetown SC anyday over that sliding garbage. As Luke said, if it’s stronger it will also pull some Cold in with it


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I think the CMC is doing well at modeling this storm out for now. It’s lining up well with the nam and shows a good idea of where the sleet/snow line will probably line up. Rn my prediction for Raleigh is a Sleet Storm with some snow accumulation with up to an inch mixed in!
 
LukeBarrette said:
I actually disagree here, Euro guidance relies on the southern shortwave to become strong by its connection to the northern vort. The GFS deflects the shortwave our direction and does not have a connection to northern vort until the low is already well off the coast. So the question is, do you want flat and progressive where temps can be colder from a weaker system…
or do you want a strong dynamic system where CAD is much stronger and storm is tilted in a way to develop snow well to the west and NW of the low.
Click to expand...

Phase or go home imo. We’ve had a winter of flat and weak, give me the phase and all the possible repercussions with it.
 
packfan98 said:
Looks like the 18z GEFS had similar trends as the op in that it’s a little flatter and drier. View attachment 169346
Click to expand...

This is also the AI trend which I hate, pretty much a weak event except for the coast. It looks like a lot of models have this weakening, and probably the risk you run with more and more confluence. I need to see some caving by other models stat. Weak sauce nuisance event is my biggest fear in this setup.
 
for my fellow NC folks -- this is a great account that is consistently very responsible about not declaring things until trends and confidence have really set in; and this was the map they posted an hour ish ago with their current thinking: 1739661980413.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top