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Wintry Feb. 19-20

griteater said:
Sometimes you just have a little luck on your side…about the only way to explain such favorable trends here on the Euro suite
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Ya'll are gonna laugh at me, but this goes back to what those smoothed 5h mean anamoly maps were printing 8 to 10 days out.

It was a can't miss/suppressed look. When they look that good at that range, you may see big oscillations in outcomes across modeling day in and day out, but ultimately "it" wants to come back to what it should have looked like all along. And that's what we're seiing here (at least that's how I feel about it, haha).
 
I haven't missed a model run of anything the last week, and honestly, the Pangu has schooled everything else in terms of consistently showing what the Euro just showed at 12z today.

We still haven't locked it in yet of course... but dang... the pangu been all over it. It's been adamant about an extreme CAD event with the freezing line punching down to columbia, with the Snow/ICE line roughly along the 85 corrider in SC.
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
Using the EPS 12z ensembles for Mount Airy there are 14 out of the 50 that have more than 5 feet of snow with one at 98”. I can’t recall any ensembles runs in NC with those high numbers before. Obviously they are skewing the mean.

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Uh, you are missing the decimals I believe. That’s 9.8” and 24” is the highest member.
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
Using the EPS 12z ensembles for Mount Airy there are 14 out of the 50 that have more than 5 feet of snow with one at 98”. I can’t recall any ensembles runs in NC with those high numbers before. Obviously they are skewing the mean.

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Not quite. The highest one i see is 17 inches. The mean is not skewed.
 
griteater said:
Sometimes you just have a little luck on your side…about the only way to explain such favorable trends here on the Euro suite
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Interesting seeing the big 50/50 low pushed west, not escaping as fast, holding the northern energy back west and allowing the southern energy to get out ahead for later phase.

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This storm reminds me of the March 2-4 1960 storm quite a bit synoptically. That one also had a wave that was similarly oriented at a time of year with shorter wavelengths.

I could see a situation like this occurring, but with less of a CAD push, and the storm not exiting as far north due to stronger ridging over Canada.

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Rain Cold said:
Lol never ever ever ever say that!
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I’m so far behind teaching my AP Calculus curriculum that I’m fine with a whiff or rain. There’s still some changes in store. We’ve seen lots of changes over the years once inside 84 hours and the NAM gets involved. If the main players hold, I would think that the cold could become more deeply entrenched. We will see.
 
packfan98 said:
I’m so far behind teaching my AP Calculus curriculum that I’m fine with a whiff or rain. There’s still some changes in store. We’ve seen lots of changes over the years once inside 84 hours and the NAM gets involved. If the main players hold, I would think that the cold could become more deeply entrenched. We will see.
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Zero chance this whiffs Greensboro. If anything a tick or two west almost always happens inside 48 hours.
 
One good thing for the upstate is the Euro has precip coming hard and heavy around 7am Wednesday morning, and the event is basically over by 3-4pm(at which point the wedge has built in and dropped us in to the upper 20s). So we wouldn't be dealing with solar radiation losses to snow accumulations too much I don't think.
 
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84 NAM

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KyloG said:
Interesting seeing the big 50/50 low pushed west, not escaping as fast, holding the northern energy back west and allowing the southern energy to get out ahead for later phase.

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Yep every little adjustment to get lower heights over us helps. Rarely does the south trend not stop and bump back north though, unfortunately
 
KyloG said:
Interesting seeing the big 50/50 low pushed west, not escaping as fast, holding the northern energy back west and allowing the southern energy to get out ahead for later phase.

View attachment 169301
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We are probably used to that trend of them scooting out near go time because the last several setups our 50/50 lows have had no true -NAO block with them
 
Took a couple days off tracking this to keep myself from going crazy, LOL. Seems like we’ve got one of this major mixed precip storms that we haven’t had in a while. Looks like warning criteria wintry precip for most of NC at this point west of I-95, just a question of what type. Verbatim, probably is going to be our most impactful storm in years. For RDU I’m definitely favoring more IP/ZR than snow, but it would be nice to start out with a couple inches of snow before changing over to IP and hold on to that longer than expected. Don’t mind some ZR, but hoping we can get the IP to hold off some of the apocalyptic ZR totals. I do think these models tend to underdo IP in favor of ZR in these situations.

Certainly would rather be in the Triad than the Triangle with this one. 😢
 
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Webberweather53 said:
I can definitely see us getting a Feb 17-19 1989-type storm here in the Carolinas. Good to see that analog generally panned out this month with exceptional volatility and a shift towards more wintry weather mid to late month
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Looks like a good callout and aligns reasonably with some of the modeling, especially the 12z Euro!

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