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Bruh
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
I don’t like being in the bullseye this far out at all but VA peeps I would forsure start to feel like something is going to happen.
agree, it's about the only red flag still. That said it's not that far off from adjusting to euro...or gads--euro moving towards it.
Not too many inland either which is nice to see
iGRXY
Member
4.5” mean sitting over the North upstate on the EPS. We really are a couple of ticks away in the mid levels from being a full blown snow event along and north of 85 across NC/SC
weather bubba
Member
The EPS showed just over an inch of QPF for this event for Wake County. If this were snow we would be looking at a foot or more. If this is freezing rain an accumulation of around 1/2 inch would be a good guess with temperatures in the twenties for the entire event. Temperatures will struggle to get to the freezing mark for up to 48 hours after the storm is over. Fun times!
I do wonder how much better this could actually trend. I wonder what the cap on better trends could be in this situation. CAD is a tough cookie to figure out.
rburrel2
Member
The 12z JMA did the same thing the Euro just did.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This winter has taught us to respect patterns like this with big chunks of the northern stream getting trapped underneath persistent blocking highs. Oftentimes, when this pattern rears its head, we don’t get last second north trends.
This storm is yet another reminder of that
This storm is yet another reminder of that
8" mean on the EPS imby and across the northern counties of NC, if this fails us again it's evil, just diabolical
For the NGA folk we know to not underestimate wedge power, but also that wedge will often erode quicker than desired. Someone smarter than me can weigh in on specifics for this storm. Recent runs are wedge happy though.
Welcome back and I'd guess your thoughts are it may tick a little further south? Seems very plausible considering the blocking
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There’s no reason to think it can’t happen. The shorter wavelengths at this time of the year means we get more amplified storms, so we pay a bigger price for little errors like this
Pilotwx
Member
? is do the other models come to the EURO?
Tsappfrog20
Member
Welcome back Eric!! Know you have been busy with the weather in NM!
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Model guidance will struggle at this lead because the climo norm boundaries are being pushed. We are in the 95-99th percentile in strength at this point.
In other words, expect colder and colder. I'm not a fan imby.
Definitely an undeniable southward shift in the individual members. It almost seems like there is a cluster of about 1/4 of the members that are even further south - would really love for those to grow for CLT to RDU folks.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Any chance you’ve got the actual members for Say Statesville ? Just to see if it’s skewed or actually more volume of larger hits?
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olhausen
Member
Well, I had to give in and re up on weather bell with this monster winter storm coming up. Trends have been great for middle Tennessee as we get to within 3 and half days until go time.
The ultimate question for next week is how far south our cold source gets pulled from our ongoing storm. The trend has been for a stronger connection, and thus winter weather further south into the Carolinas.
I think I-85 N is 70% locked in for something frozen. Areas further south could join the action, but higher uncertainty currently.
I think I-85 N is 70% locked in for something frozen. Areas further south could join the action, but higher uncertainty currently.
I do not but 1300 just posted those in gif format the immediate post before yours.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Just give me 2 south ticks and I'll be in... this is torture it's trying to pull me in. It's still technically possible too.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I can definitely see us getting a Feb 17-19 1989-type storm here in the Carolinas. Good to see that analog generally panned out this month with exceptional volatility and a shift towards more wintry weather mid to late month
Could CAE possibly see something wintry too? Seem like shift was to the south?towards Midlands.
olhausen
Member
Can’t get over the euro mean! Trying to keep the excitement in check.
It would be ice and the EPS isn't far off from a significant event.
I'm still not really in, but it does concern me regardless. EPS is a good model at this range.
What are the other probability maps for lower “s of snow looking like now?
That's a text book Miller A track for the Carolina's NE GA and VA.
Couldn't draw it better.
Hope a track similar to this holds.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This winter has beaten it into our heads that when you see a big block trap a cold northern stream trough underneath, it’s just not a good recipe for a sudden northward shift.
Outside of Nino winters when your southern stream is much more amplified, you usually need the blocking to back off for the mid Atlantic and NE US to score
Outside of Nino winters when your southern stream is much more amplified, you usually need the blocking to back off for the mid Atlantic and NE US to score
Jessy89
Member
Anyone have the Pickens sc airport individual ensembles from euro? I’m guessing 3/4th show something
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About as you'd expect. The big dog solutions seem to favor some late development, making that map distribution look different.
Thinking the same thing.
Go back to the last storm in late Jan.
We were hoping for the NW trend that never came.
Patterns repeat maybe this is our Gulf coast storm in late Jan.
jetstream30
Member
So Webber your saying NC and VA are in good shape for a solid Winter Storm in your opinion?
I HATE these probability maps. They are like a black hole, just waiting to suck you in.
I agree haha. I actually don't think it's worth salivating over these EPS ensemble mean 10:1 snowfall maps either.
rburrel2
Member
It looks like to me like the 12z Euro Graphcast and Pangu are getting the snow line down close to columbia. Gonna need bouncycorn to show up with those pangu ensemble spread maps again. IIRC, they did pretty good with the early January event nailing down p-types.
12z Euro AI is also south and colder, but pretty paltry with precip totals.
12z Euro AI is also south and colder, but pretty paltry with precip totals.
Avalanche
Member
Not much liquid at all with it
Damn the latest euro graphcast is a big snowstorm for the 85 corridor and west, not suprising it normally matches trends with the main op ECMWF but wow
The AIFS was less amped again as well, a lighter event but snowier
The AIFS was less amped again as well, a lighter event but snowier