And if I'm not mistaken didn't GSO get like a foot of snow with that storm?
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January 2017 is exactly the storm I keep thinking about looking at how the modeling is trending. That storm had a very narrow corridor, only about 30 miles wide with significant ZR. Unfortunately for me I was in that corridor and 4-6” of forecasted snow turned into .3” of ZR and then about an inch of snow on top of it. I expect a similar size corridor with this possibility setting close to the US-1. This set up does appear to get a stronger cold push out ahead of the storm than January 2017 storm did and much better snowpack in place to the north.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Yes up into VA got 15-20 Lynchburg - DC. Webberweather.com has some cool maps great site
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WolfpackHomer91
Member
Yall throw your shots at me idc…. It’s been too long since I’ve lived through anything Decent that little 4” With ICE topper in 2022 was a Tease…. I want the whole thing … bring me Cat 6 we’re so close in NC can we pull it off idk. But gimme something to tell my Grandkids I will pick up debris after as the payment. Granted I’ve got a Generator that will power every outlet in my home and Gas logs but yea
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jetstream30
Member
Precipitation Charlotte and back west? Are we thinking more ZR or a mix.
Do we know what the wind is supposed to be for this or is that too early to know?
Yall throw your shots at me idc…. It’s been too long since I’ve lived through anything Decent that little 4” With ICE topper in 2022 was a Tease…. I want the whole thing … bring me Cat 6 we’re so close in NC can we pull it off idk. But gimme something to tell my Grandkids I will pick up debris after as the payment. Granted I’ve got a Generator that will power every outlet in my home and Gas logs but yea
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iGRXY
Member
Well considering the cold air is coming from CAD on the EAST side of the mountains this is literally nothing like a cold chasing moisture setup at all.
Got any earlier frames? Was it just lgt snow this far NW in the foothills?
packfan98
Moderator
Euro AI looks like more sleet and freezing rain than snow in the I-85 corridor to me. Even up through the Triad if I’m reading it correctly.
This is the biggest reason for the warm nose on most guidance.
Just hoping for a big ole sleet storm and if not I hope it gets yanked west and it tracks up 95.
Looks like the 06z AI has abandoned the NAVGEM camp. Whew. So that’s good if we like a little precipitation with our low level cold.
NCSNOW
Member
Yall throw your shots at me idc…. It’s been too long since I’ve lived through anything Decent that little 4” With ICE topper in 2022 was a Tease…. I want the whole thing … bring me Cat 6 we’re so close in NC can we pull it off idk. But gimme something to tell my Grandkids I will pick up debris after as the payment. Granted I’ve got a Generator that will power every outlet in my home and Gas logs but yea
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December 2002, was a 5 on that index card here locally. It can happen and we had 0 wind. The accums is what did it, temps low 20s. Not saying thats gonna take place with this storm by no means. Just younger folks, need to not always boo boo the frzng rn maps. I get why they do it. But it can an does happen. You get accums to.75, to me thats when you cross dangerous turf power wise widespread. With or without wind.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The 06Z NAVGEM was trying to abandoned its own camp
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Canadian started the inland track last night…. It had a 1010 over Georgetown at one point….. now that EURO is moving towards it gotta atleast say it’s a possibility
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WolfpackHomer91
Member
Yea, true. I wish Webber or one of the smart ppl here had access to model run archives to see what they had in certain storms. I just find it hard to not cut 75% off even the FRAM maps… bc we see these insane world ending numbers it seems 70% of our QPF loaded events and they never verify. As it stands I still say even verbatim this is WORST case 1/4 - 1/2” Verified Accums as modeled in worst areas
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Snowlover34
Member
So do other places in the southeast has a chance of seeing something besides Tennessee and both of the carolina’s?
I wouldn't sweat amounts or p-types just yet. Until the LP placement gets more sorted out. This thing is still 5 days out. Suffice to say we have a storm coming with multiple p-types.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
N Mississippi/ @MitchWest fav city Little Rock ect but that’s more MidSouth I guess
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I know it’s early and thing will change but at this point I would rather see a cold rain than some of these ice accumulations being shown.
Guidance ZR totals get chewed down because:
-underestimated cold at 925mb
-surface temps too warm (self limiting etc etc)
-good ole dry slot
-even if the above conditions aren’t satisfied it’s rare to accrue at 100% efficiency. You lose qpf to runoff if…
-its raining too hard
-there’s no breeze (helps “air out” that latent heat release)
-marginal temps (think 31.8)
It’s just hard to get right. Models still struggle with phase changes in a falling hydrometeor which is why it can be hard to forecast this
-underestimated cold at 925mb
-surface temps too warm (self limiting etc etc)
-good ole dry slot
-even if the above conditions aren’t satisfied it’s rare to accrue at 100% efficiency. You lose qpf to runoff if…
-its raining too hard
-there’s no breeze (helps “air out” that latent heat release)
-marginal temps (think 31.8)
It’s just hard to get right. Models still struggle with phase changes in a falling hydrometeor which is why it can be hard to forecast this
Not webber, but the only thing I will say is comparing old model runs (in my opinion) wouldn't produce much value. These models are upgraded routinely (increasingly vertical and horizontal resolution, new parameterizaton schemes such as microphysics, land surface model, PBL, cumulus and new data assimilation methods, etc.) and so a model run of the ECMWF from years ago is basically an entirely different model than the current ECMWF.
junbb1
Member
I don’t post much, longtime winter weather lover. I really just get on here in the winter months to self educate. I’m 43 and been in the upstate my whole life. Could be completely wrong, but this system is starting to remind me of FEB 26 2004. Need some luck but the CAD seems to be trending in the right direction, just need the cold to push sooner or L to slow. The 04 storm was about over in the GSP area but it started to crank and put down over 8” at GSP. Back end development that far east was not predicted. I say this, because back end development on Lee side continues to show up on the models. Hoping for the best!
We were getting ZR with the first system in January and I was shocked at the runoff that occurs even around 29-30 with light to moderate rain
rburrel2
Member
Yea FRAM tries to take runoff in to account, but I bet it only goes off hourly precip rates, (if that).
You have to think that within an hour of precip, there are 5-10 minutes periods of much heavier precip that's gonna be lost to run off at a quicker rate, so if the hourly precip is 2/10ths and fram thinks 1/10th of that can freeze... if most of that 2/10th's comes over a ten minute period, you might realistically only get 2/100ths of accrual.
iGRXY
Member
Icon is more amped
I'm not a met, but been through a lot of these ice scenarios over the years. I've found the major ones usually require a long duration (12+ hrs at least, preferably 18+) of steady/moderate frz rn combined w/ surface temps at 28 or below. I mean it can happen close to 30, but only with longer duration. It's very tough to get those 2 factors to line up. (not saying that won't happen here, but more highlighting why it doesn't happen more often)
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Coming in line with everything else. Has been the snowy outlier for a while now. That pipe dream may be sailing away here @ 12z
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Icon more than doubled my qpf this run
rburrel2
Member
Looking like the Euro led the way here and the Euro AI(and other AI models) were hot dog water. Basically just trust which models give Richmond to Boston the most snow and you'll be right for any given storm this year.
rburrel2
Member
You can count on every east coast storm amping up and shifting north and west... except when they start out showing snow from New Orleans to Savannah... those won't budge an inch north.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I’m not sure many folks understand the impacts if majority of North Carolina gets 0.75-1.25 qpf of snow, sleet, freezing rain.
Still not convinced yet on a wide field heavy impact zr. Maybe a corridor for sure
rburrel2
Member
Take to the bank... this one won't trend north at all.
Icon mountain mauler. If normal caveats occur it’s prob a widespread 1” QPF 50-100 miles further west towards the TN/NC border with majority of that being snow 
Also, Icon destroys Raleigh with ice later
Also, Icon destroys Raleigh with ice later
If that’s the storm I’m thinking about, it was a core memory for me here in the upstate. It’s about as bad as it can get winter wx wise.