wow
Member
Canadian came in less amped and further south vs 0z, thus colder
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Yep, holds for Western areas it seems
Big dropoff in precip for the 12z Canadian vs last night's run.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Which model is this?
wow
Member
I'm very interested to see when we get within 3-4 day window with the NAM and other mesoscale models how things progress. I have a hunch here that we'll continue to trend colder in the mid levels.
Yeah I like colder trends but I'm also not convinced if this is more amped, we don't lose it completely ro our NW. If my outcome is either mega zr or rain, give me rain all day
This will be one of those few storms we will be studying the 925 trends and not the 850. In my experience, it will be harder to predict up until go time, although the NAM may actually be helpful for once with this.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Looking more and more likely that we going to see an icestorm in RDU unless that temps continue to cool down and sleet saves us
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It has already started. And it’s right on time
1/2 of precip is a good ballpark estimate for freezing rain buildup. So 0.50 of freezing rain precip = 0.25 inch of ice buildup / accretion
Exact trend that excites low level/surface cold but excites warmth in the upper low levels.. yikes
Looks euro esque
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Ik this is blanket but for my CLT metro folks … Crum is as conservative as they come , NOTHING excites him , however but he’s accurate as anyone . When he even mentions something and doesn’t add “Meh” or “Time will tell I guess … tracking” its time to listen
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I know it's the ops run but that's a rotten LP track for RDU. Need it ~75 miles se or least less amped 1010 vs 1003 maybe?
rburrel2
Member
That even looks bad for D.C.
What's that about the UK and euro lining up? Hard to beat?
WolfpackHomer91
Member
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
6z EPS and 12z GEFS mean low positions, probably would take a blend of the two imo
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Yeah but didn't originally apply to UK and euro I believe. Navy model or something
weather bubba
Member
I am just a hobbyist that has been interested in the weather since I was a kid but I would lean towards more freezing rain than sleet at this point for the RDU area. There is still plenty of time for things to change between now and Wednesday but I would start preparing for an extended period without power and tree damage in your yard. There are several meteorlogists here who have a much better grasp on the specifics than I do so I would keep an eye on things and hope for the best. As far as ice accrural totals I would lean towards the 1/2 inch mark or potentially higher at this point.
NCSNOW
Member
12z Ukmet snowing good Triad. Beaut
I loved what the Canadian showed, mostly sleet from N. Charlotte - threw RDU - up to the northern Coastal plain.
Absolutely cooked
Bigedd09
Member
You are good. The TRIAD will ALWAYS find a way to score big
Me too, just wish it were the gefs and/or eps
Still a big storm elsewhere in NC. Pivotal maps don't delineate between freezing rain and sleet.
But that's after this falls:
Attachments
wow
Member
Despite the miller Bish look with the UKMET it still trends cold with the mid level temps
UKMET probably starts of a lot of locals as a burst of wet snow verbatim its look, shows rain around the CLT metro for ex to start out but that’s a wet snow sounding 
UKMET even shows elevated cape on top of the wedge dome
NCSNOW
Member
Ends up about 5-7 snow, sleet accumulating.
Where my thoughts are right now. Id forecast 4-8 for Triad all the way back to Frosty. If you stay more snow you hit 8. If you get the better qpf goods eastern part, youll sleet, but with front end thump easily get over 5.
Even gives wiggle room for frzng rn top off.
.7 - 1 0 qpf all frozen is coming
Probably gonna be a colder euro run here shortly 
iGRXY
Member
Euro looks even better thru 54
I'm seeing only a few GEFS members turning up the coast, maybe 3 or 4 inside 40/70, the rest appear to be ene exits. Also, only a few scrape the obxs similar to the UK and 0z EC, most are offshore at closest approach.
Definitely a legit trend 
