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Wintry Feb. 19-20

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Icon more than doubled my qpf this run
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This is what some are failing to realize…. If we want more QPF we’re gonna have to sacrafice the track some. Those tracks yesterday where it goes SE and it’s colder sure… those are cool if you wanna take a shot at a minor 1-3” / Glaze event back in our area …. But if you wanna run with the big dog you’ve gotta ride the lines. Amped = QPF …. Sure we sacrifice Eastern NC (I-95 and East) but that’s just how it is.

Edit : This is the scenario that @SnowNiner has waited on …. 40 miles May make all the difference. Southern/Eastern Meck/Wake Rain / Mix with FRZN around 32-33 while Just to N/NW of each ppl are at 30/31 and get Mostly Frozen of some sort. Then back towards Hickory / Mountains ect get Raked with the big totals. I’ve seen it 100x since I was a 6yr old started watching weather in this area. The only ppl that should worry is if you’re

- South of 85 (if you want Mostly wintry)
- South of 421 (Outside immediate Mountains) if you want mostly Snow

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Verbatim, 12zz ICON would be the biggest EC blizzard since 2016, likely a 4 on the NESIS scale. The big ones you usually see coming 7-10 days out, and as things stand now guidance hasn't really flinched. For winter weather lovers in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain, you want a more ene track OTS maybe clipping SNE, and bombogenesis commencing south of HAT to begin crashing heights on the west side setting up a cold core conveyer. Right now that looks to start in SE VA/Tidewater area, before lifting up the eastern seaboard. Still a major winter storm for areas between 77 and 95, north of 40, and potentially crippling ice storm for areas along the VA boarder back towards RDU.
 
CaryWx said:
That's what I'm thinking. Still a pretty broad avenue that hasn't narrowed on the main models yet. Do we take deterministics into account more yet or still in the ensemble suite for best predictors.
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Im sticking with ensembles until tomorrow. I like how we have an overall consensus on the track just got to iron out the details. I doubt the HP comes in as strong as advertised but the stronger the better.
 
Its just going to be hard for anything to beat the EPS...once inside day 5 the EPS has been rock solid. Its been locked in for the event tomorrow into Monday for the east since day 6.

The fringes are always tricky and i know someone will trash it because it shifted 20 miles north or south.

EPSday3.gif
 
1300m said:
Not webber, but the only thing I will say is comparing old model runs (in my opinion) wouldn't produce much value. These models are upgraded routinely (increasingly vertical and horizontal resolution, new parameterizaton schemes such as microphysics, land surface model, PBL, cumulus and new data assimilation methods, etc.) and so a model run of the ECMWF from years ago is basically an entirely different model than the current ECMWF.
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Hey man, your a great met and I appreciate your contributions, I appreciate how you cut through all the weenieness and lay out what needs to happen, it makes it easy to read versus the whole “ it looks good on this model , now it looks good here” the whole bouncing from model to model
 
KyloG said:
Its just going to be hard for anything to beat the EPS...once inside day 5 the EPS has been rock solid. Its been locked in for the event tomorrow into Monday for the east since day 6.

The fringes are always tricky and i know someone will trash it because it shifted 20 miles north or south.

View attachment 169193
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So the upcoming 12z eps mean SLP track should be taken pretty seriously I would guess and look at p-type boundaries (850 & 925) with that maybe?
 
652e53220dd8a6c0794926dc0c881c45.gif

GFS continues to trend colder at the surface (6 run trend)


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Cary_Snow95 said:
View attachment 169200
GFS finally getting a clue. This is the most substantial ice storm we’ve seen depicted in years
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Those surface temperatures are getting colder with each run. With the warm nose that might be in place that is a recipe for disaster to those who like to have electricity. I hope the surface track of the LP will end up more to the east to reduce the warm nose and to cut back on QPF totals. A small accumulation of snow beats a large accumulation of ice on the trees and power lines as far as I am concerned at least.
 
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weather bubba said:
Those surface temperatures are getting colder with each run. With the warm nose that might be in place tha5 is a recipe for disaster to those who like to have electricity. I hope the surface track of the LP will end up more to the east to reduce the warm nose and to cut back on QPF totals. A small accumulation of snow beats a large accumulation of ice on the trees and power lines as far as I am concerned at least.
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Looks like sleet totals have gone up in our immediate area but still lots of zr being progged. Need to see the trend to more sleet continue.
 
Big uptick in snow through Kentucky on the GFS. Bridged the gap. Big totals filling in west to east.

This may not just be a one trick pony gulf low type system. More at play here.. maybe the Dec 02 analog isn’t that crazy after all

Interesting
IMG_1553.gif
 
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