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NCSNOW
Member
A Major winter storm is coming. Devil in the details. That we know for sure right now i think its safe to say.
Packfan gonna love Jimmys ground zero post when he wakes in the a.m.
Packfan gonna love Jimmys ground zero post when he wakes in the a.m.
The LP track on the Canadian is much further West than all other operational and AI models, which in turn are further West than their respective ensembles. Don't think that inland track is going to be the final outcome here.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Canadian showed what an early phase can do, I’m really not buying into that solution
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You got snow and sleet maps from Canadian?
Me either. Unless later guidance looks like it, I’m legitimately tossing that run. Leaf model should be renamed the phase model
Let's see what the UKMet has to say, that's the one you like pretty good...
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Barring a disaster overnight ... I agree, its time to accept a Winter Storm is Likely in NC. Mixed Bag but 75% Certainty its gonna occur....The nothing and dry and OR Nothing and ALL Rain can be put to rest. By this time tomm we will be in NAM range, its coming we survived and can stop saying "The long range model x,y,z" were 4.5 days out. Time to just iron out details now
NCSNOW
Member
Yes in this situation, day 4-7, it and euro are hard combo to beat.
By the way the record for the totality of Duke energy customers in only Carolinas without power at one time. Came not from Hugo,Fran etc its at 57% from Dec 4-5 , 2002.
I don’t have sleet maps but snow maps look like they are pushed back to 5k feet for “all snow” . That particular line moved northwest from 12z
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Great low track for the upstate but no cold. Too much SER.
Significant winter storm for NC/VA, the NE gets whiffed
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Signal for FRZR starting to increase on the GEFS as expected. Colder 2mts for most areas east of the apps 
Well that stinks! Thanks for posting.
Awesome. Love triggering the MA/ME weenies 
Euro AI has about 500 miles to come west to catch the Canadian. I wouldn’t sweat it Frosty!
NCSNOW
Member
Ukmet is runing. Should put the canadian super amp out to Pasteur here in a few. If it doesnt an agrees, ill sit up straighter.
tennessee storm
Member
Go big or go home
Canadian went full ridge bridge in the Atlantic. Was kind of trending that way. Had a similar depiction @ 12z back on 2/11
More stream interaction so far early in the run, like the rest of the 00z models
Just to keep this
the temperature lines in the sounding are skewed to the right (thus the name, Skew-T diagram). I’ve drawn in here the yellow line which is the 0 degree C line. So the max warm nose here is +5 or +6 deg C at 850mb. Rough guide is if warm layer max is less than +1 deg C, the snowflake partially melts but stays as snow. If warm nose max is +1C to +3C, it’s sleet. If warm nose max is higher than +3C, it’s freezing rain - all assumes below freezing layer below warm nose
More upstream confleunce so gonna be colder at the sfc. Could be amped with a stronger appendage back west to 
WolfpackHomer91
Member
500mb looks like 00Z from last night up to 81 jmo
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Looks slightly Colder than 12Z, Definitely Slower , on 12Z by 03Z Thursday (Same frame) LP was in N Outer Banks. With it being Feb id imagine an overnight storm would possibly help some edge ppl but idk
EDIT : Goes on to Hammer NYC - Boston lol
By this time next week 984 sitting off the SE Massachusetts coast
NCSNOW
Member
Nice clown map at hr 129 ukmet. Lot more snow front end. Several 6+ along upper 2 tier countie va/nc line.
Need a line from Jimmy to SD to get in this one.
Need a line from Jimmy to SD to get in this one.
UKMET is colder with front end snow > ice 
Now hopefully the Euro will follow the UKMet
Looks like the euro is gonna come in with stronger upstream confluence as well, that’s all modeling tonight. Hopefully we see that continue, that’s our ticket for more snowier runs if that feature continues
Sheesh 
Probably gonna be a huge ice storm this euro run. More shallow cold then prior runs but 850mb is still torching
I mean all I have to say is this is scary consistent for the 85 corridor. This run got GSP involved to 
Not very much freezing rain in the foothills was there more sleet there or just a lack of precip?
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NCSNOW
Member
Euro is 6 hrs slower, comes inland sw GA, amped like rest tonight
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Much better than freezing rain. But I’m sure there will be many more changes, but don’t need the .75-1.00 like central NC. Wow Thanks!
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my maps are slow but here’s where I’m at now. Looks like snow and a lot of it
Low goes from south of PCB then jets inland into south GA
NCSNOW
Member
Exits MYB. Shes wound up. Big qpf east tn to coast
NCSNOW
Member
That track is what will happen early amp gulf coast. Can and euro attest
Yeah boy, love to stay away from that heavy ice. Thanks!
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