At some point if this thing keeps doing this it may start to resemble 1/2-1/3/2002. I don't think that is likely due to the western ridge not being as stout but
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Its right there. Just a tweak
It's not far away at this point, we aren't far away from a 12-18 type storm with that AI evolution just not sure if this pattern has the goods to get us there
bouncycorn will have your order ready here in a few
need the bouncycorn blender to whip us up a nice daiquiri
Pops
Member
Nam be in range tomorrow. That will be a hoot!!
mx3gsr92
Member
Southern trend starts tonight. You heard it here first!
I hope so. It would not take much for Gadsden area to get in the game.
Pops
Member
We will see
WolfpackHomer91
Member
FWIW …. Means nothing …. 18Z NAM back in Feb 2014 was first Model to Paste us in NC…. It came in with 6-18” Murphy to Manteo …. That was the start they started the thread that night and rest was history. ICE was also a major threat then too until hour 36 then backed off to SN/IP
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Not sure if this matters or not and could be cope but
I would say my latest thoughts are that the EC AI is interesting and the fact it and the EPS continue to tick south at H5 is something to monitor. With the way this winter has gone, I'm not putting much stock in anything else right now (even though both of those suites have had big stumbles, overall, I feel they have been the most reliable if you ignore some bad runs here and there). Trying to say definitive statements at this range is probably unwise, but if we don't see a big move at H5 by tomorrow evening/Sunday morning we'll know relatively where we stand with the big picture features most likely.
SnowNiner
Member
Don’t need south, the surface track is perfect for a wide spread winter storm on like all the models.
Not sure what we need other than a phase on the AI models, cause right now they don’t and they are whiffs.
The other models just aren’t cold enough. Thought it was a more consolidated quicker TPV near the lakes, but the GEFS did that and it still wasn’t cold enough.
mx3gsr92
Member
You know what I meant brotato
rburrel2
Member
It's copium. He picked a storm that all the models were off on. Go check out the Euro/GFS etc and they were even more wrong. Especially the GFS.
Comparatively, the Euro AI did the best with that storm in the day 5-7 timeframe.
(I'm not claiming victory here and saying the Euro AI will be right again this time)
Also: We're all expecting it sharpen up at least a little compared to what the Euro AI is showing now... but it's got long ways to go to crush the major cities. And I personally don't think it's gonna completely cave to the other models in that regard.
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
There’s that TPV making a definitive move east of Chicago, that’s a good trend if you ask me
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wow
Member
Same with Feb 2004. Things trended very well in the last 72 hrs on that one.
NCSNOW
Member
Its 32 and clear outside. Dont be shocked to see a flake or pellet by sunrise tommorow.
I have a hard time buying a flat, wide right, low precip solution. I'm categorically throwing anything that shows that in the recycle bin.
Pops
Member
This is literally..to me..one of the most interesting storms ..really close to something great for LOTSof us
wow
Member
Yep. Man I wish I saved old model runs from that one. That was a fun one on WWBB
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Everything about the energy with this system screams a nothingburger. A lot of it doesn't really line up and I kinda "feel" this isn't going to be much UNLESS it starts trending a much further south dig. I could be wrong
I could be seriously wrong but I like the icon already more so then 18z
Yup, I think just about everyone feels this. We are all holding our breath hoping it does something special.
iGRXY
Member
Agree. To me over amplification is the biggest threat right now. Not a flat and suppressed solution.
iGRXY
Member
The confluence looks much deeper so far this run over the NE
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
It actually is further west than even the 18z EC AI at 75 hrs.
Yep. Gonna get a wintry solution here this run more then likely 
Wonder if the icon is going to have a 2 part system here
I just don’t see how a solution like this doesn’t give some upslope locations a foot of snow. Long fetch + cold air + secondary wave as a possible bonus. Big system 
Yikes
Absolute sleet storm at RDU, icon precip maps shows ZR but that’s sleet in reality with that cold layer and as evident with that sounding 
It’s late to the party. First round of moisture brings the cold with it. Sedondary overruns. Not a big gap in time between. That’s the issue. Its timing. Which it usually is anyway. This is not classic overrunning