snowlover91
Member
The biggest thing I'm noticing is models like the HRRR have been trying to dry that wave up and instead it continues to solidify and move our way. Fwiw also the Euro is dropping 1-2" of snow in your area tonight...
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Wintry Feb 19-20 Possible Front-End Snow/Ice Thump
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
The biggest thing I'm noticing is models like the HRRR have been trying to dry that wave up and instead it continues to solidify and move our way. Fwiw also the Euro is dropping 1-2" of snow in your area tonight...
Nomanslandva
Member
HRRR looks like crap for me. I will hug the EC
RGEM too. I am worried about being to warm now and then clouds thicken and temps get stuck.
Unfortunately that Euro clown map overdone, this is the precip type accums but hey it's the Euro and we go with short range models now Lol
snowlover91
Member
HRRR looks like crap for me. I will hug the EC
HRRR is not a good model for thermals especially when they are marginal and could go either way. It also has continuously been "killing off" the precip from this band all day and has handled it poorly. This will likely be one of those storms that we just have to wait and see how the precip verifies. Judging by radar I think the RGEM has been handling the precip evolution the best of the models thus far.
snowlover91
Member
Unfortunately that Euro clown map overdone, this is the precip type accums but hey it's the Euro and we go with short range models now Lol
Well you definitely wouldn't get 1-2" of snow if it verified as rates, above freezing BL temps and other factors would cut down on the ratios... but looking at the actual sim radar on weather.us it looks like a nice period of a few hours of snow/mix is possible up that way.
Lots of deep rolling thunder with the batch moving in now! With the sleet earlier, I’m going to call that thundersleet and the highlight of this winter! Temp 37
Sleet going crazy at UNCC Noel of the sudden out of nowhere
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Our frontogenetically forced band of precipitation is getting its act together over NE GA & upstate SC although again keep in mind melting snow aloft contributes to some of these really high reflectivity values.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, definitely moderate sleet here at UNCC.
This isn’t far away from some thunder as well ... wondering if some crazy dynamics can occur inside these bands and produce some snow? Or is this going to be a sleet fest ? Also it was cold as heck with a little breeze too.. wondering if we could cool more with this band and have to worry about freezing temperatures tomorrow?Our frontogenetically forced band of precipitation is getting its act together over NE GA & upstate SC although again keep in mind melting snow aloft contributes to some of these really high reflectivity values.
New pocket of -1 C just developed at 925 hPa, I wonder what this fronto band will do here, I think heavy rain/sleet/graupel here but we’ll see
Just had a couple flashes of lighting and big “boomah”of thunder as my son would say
35 degrees. Fml
35 degrees. Fml
Fountainguy97
Member
Wow! Almost the snowiest pic I’ve taken all winter!
Light sleet/rain here in southern Wake.
44/27 temp/dp
Y’all be safe out there haha
Light sleet/rain here in southern Wake.
44/27 temp/dp
Y’all be safe out there haha
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Adiabatic cooling from ascent, melting dendrites falling into the low-levels, & sensible heat transfer are all acting to cool the low-levels as seen on this plot.
snowlover91
Member
I noticed the 18z NAM suite shows a nice band of precip moving into even Central NC now but soundings indicate a warm nose around the 850mb level. I'm thinking sleet will be the dominant p-type before the mid-levels warm enough to transition it to a cold rain for most in NC (outside of CAD areas). I have to say the RGEM seems to have done a much better job picking up on this band of precip than the NAM which has consistently been too dry for a few days now.
Heavy sleet in uptown Charlotte
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I don’t wanna say it but I’m going to .... I’m seeing flakes mixed in with sleet now at UNCC .... okay bands let’s see what u can do
Sounding from the NAM 3km is so close for me for snow, just a heavy burst can do the trick with that look 
Definitly some of the heaviest sleet so far at UNCC campus rn
packfan98
Moderator
Good write-up from NWS Raleigh:
A strong and cold 1040 hPa high pressure system centered across
the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon will move into eastern
NY/PA tonight and weakens as it reaches the New England coast
late Wednesday. The high is of sufficient strength and in a
favorable location to establish a CAD regime tonight that will
extend into Thursday. Dry air has extended south with surface
dew points in the single digits across NY, the teens in PA into
northern VA and the 20s across northeastern NC. A strong upper
level trough near the four corners region this afternoon will
move into the Central Plains as a strong southwesters flow
aloft extends across the southern Plains and Southeast. In
addition, a strengthening low and mid level southerly flow will
provide ascent and moisture resulting in lowering ceilings and
this afternoon as precipitation expands and develops across the
area.
Latest NWP guidance suggests that the amount of cold and dry air
at the surface may be more limited than previous forecast
guidance. This is seen in a dprog/dt of NAM surface T and Td. A
band of light precipitation driven by mid level warm advection
continues to stream east across our southern tier. This
precipitation is being driven by elevated processes and the
precipitation is falling out of elevated ceilings of 8kft or
higher resulting in lots of virga and spotty amounts. Expect
some sleet to mix in at times this afternoon and early evening,
mainly at the onset as the precip cools into the dry air below
the cloud deck.
Isentropic lift ramps up this evening in the 295 to 300K layer
resulting in a region of low and mid level ascent and subsequent
warm advection precipitation. The precipitation will overspread
the region from southwest to northeast this evening and
overnight. Although the forecast BL temps may have warmed,
forecast soundings suggest a burst or brief period of wet snow
and sleet will mix in with the rain this evening across the
Triad and then spread northeast into the VA border counties. The
snow and sleet should be short lived and will fall with surface
temperatures above freezing resulting in limited accumulations.
Given the rates may be impressive for a short period, have
added a limited coating of snow/sleet to the forecast in these
areas. A strong southwest flow aloft will push a strong warm
nose across the area shutting down the snow potential quickly
this evening.
The precipitation will produce some wet bulb cooling as the surface
layer becomes saturated. Not surprisingly the NAM is the
coolest guidance with the wet bulb freezing line pushing south
into the I-85 corridor which should serve as the farthest
extent of any freezing rain potential. The GFS is notably warmer
in the surface layer and partials. Will lean toward the cooler
NAM solution given its skill to handle these patterns more
skillfully. This will support a changeover from rain to freezing
rain as temperatures fall to 32 or 31 in the damming region
after several hours after midnight from Albemarle to Raleigh to
Warrenton northwestward. Given the marginal surface
temperatures, the light precipitation amounts, some lulls in the
precipitation and moderate temperatures ahead of the event,
expect ice accumulations will be limited and mainly confined to
locations near and north of I-85 where a light glaze is possible
with radial ice accumulations of 0.08 inches or less.
Temperatures will slowly moderate after daybreak on Wednesday as
the parent high pressure system moves away. This will allow the
freezing rain to diminish from south to north and end during
the mid morning hours. Lows will range in the 30 to 32 range in
the northern Piedmont and the mid 30s elsewhere.
A strong and cold 1040 hPa high pressure system centered across
the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon will move into eastern
NY/PA tonight and weakens as it reaches the New England coast
late Wednesday. The high is of sufficient strength and in a
favorable location to establish a CAD regime tonight that will
extend into Thursday. Dry air has extended south with surface
dew points in the single digits across NY, the teens in PA into
northern VA and the 20s across northeastern NC. A strong upper
level trough near the four corners region this afternoon will
move into the Central Plains as a strong southwesters flow
aloft extends across the southern Plains and Southeast. In
addition, a strengthening low and mid level southerly flow will
provide ascent and moisture resulting in lowering ceilings and
this afternoon as precipitation expands and develops across the
area.
Latest NWP guidance suggests that the amount of cold and dry air
at the surface may be more limited than previous forecast
guidance. This is seen in a dprog/dt of NAM surface T and Td. A
band of light precipitation driven by mid level warm advection
continues to stream east across our southern tier. This
precipitation is being driven by elevated processes and the
precipitation is falling out of elevated ceilings of 8kft or
higher resulting in lots of virga and spotty amounts. Expect
some sleet to mix in at times this afternoon and early evening,
mainly at the onset as the precip cools into the dry air below
the cloud deck.
Isentropic lift ramps up this evening in the 295 to 300K layer
resulting in a region of low and mid level ascent and subsequent
warm advection precipitation. The precipitation will overspread
the region from southwest to northeast this evening and
overnight. Although the forecast BL temps may have warmed,
forecast soundings suggest a burst or brief period of wet snow
and sleet will mix in with the rain this evening across the
Triad and then spread northeast into the VA border counties. The
snow and sleet should be short lived and will fall with surface
temperatures above freezing resulting in limited accumulations.
Given the rates may be impressive for a short period, have
added a limited coating of snow/sleet to the forecast in these
areas. A strong southwest flow aloft will push a strong warm
nose across the area shutting down the snow potential quickly
this evening.
The precipitation will produce some wet bulb cooling as the surface
layer becomes saturated. Not surprisingly the NAM is the
coolest guidance with the wet bulb freezing line pushing south
into the I-85 corridor which should serve as the farthest
extent of any freezing rain potential. The GFS is notably warmer
in the surface layer and partials. Will lean toward the cooler
NAM solution given its skill to handle these patterns more
skillfully. This will support a changeover from rain to freezing
rain as temperatures fall to 32 or 31 in the damming region
after several hours after midnight from Albemarle to Raleigh to
Warrenton northwestward. Given the marginal surface
temperatures, the light precipitation amounts, some lulls in the
precipitation and moderate temperatures ahead of the event,
expect ice accumulations will be limited and mainly confined to
locations near and north of I-85 where a light glaze is possible
with radial ice accumulations of 0.08 inches or less.
Temperatures will slowly moderate after daybreak on Wednesday as
the parent high pressure system moves away. This will allow the
freezing rain to diminish from south to north and end during
the mid morning hours. Lows will range in the 30 to 32 range in
the northern Piedmont and the mid 30s elsewhere.