Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

[smast16]

Glad to report Greensboro still stuck 34-35 ,Since Thursday afternoon and honestky I cant recall one second thats its not been precipitating, drizzle,fog minimum.

Its never ending. I WANT IT TO STOP! No wonder why Seattle is full of weirdos, this lack of sunshine is maddening!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Its never ending. I WANT IT TO STOP! No wonder why Seattle is full of weirdos, this lack of sunshine is maddening!

It’s terrible, ground is slop

 

[LukeBarrette]

Congrats VA, it’s literally the TPV being more south and we would have cashed in, what a damn shame I’m so triggered View attachment 75203

Im looking respectfully

 

[smast16]

If the tPV keeps slowing, how many more jump do we need to get out of the ice?

 

[BelmontWX79]

I have family in Roxboro who still don't have power. Another round of significant ice on weakened trees and increasingly soggy ground would be devastating.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This exactly !!

 

[Webberweather53]

Euro is trending towards other models synoptically which are showing weaker CAD w/ this system

 

[Webberweather53]

Ffs, if we were still 4-5 days out w/ a trend like this... ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Ffs, if we were still 4-5 days out w/ a trend like this... ?

Yep exactly what I was saying earlier, painful that we’re 62-78 hours away from it and not 144

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Welp!

 

[Deleted member 1449]

The EURO starts us out with a DP of 23 and keeps us at or below freezing (GSO area) through 18Z Thursday.

 

[Webberweather53]

Ouch. Thank god the precip rates are heavier, self-limiting process will take over here and keep ice totals down relatively speaking.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol the TPV trend is pretty insane and is completely changing the evolution

 

[Deleted member 1449]

good grief, Charlie Brown

 

[Webberweather53]

 

[LukeBarrette]

Lol the TPV trend is pretty insane and is completely changing the evolution

exactly what I just said in the group chat

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Icon has the strongest TPV out of most models, hmmm

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

That actually looks pretty accurate location wise. Main threat north of I-40

good grief, Charlie Brown

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Icon has the strongest TPV out of most models, hmmm

Toss the icon. It's trash.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Well, the euro is much further south with frozen stuff in NC. Hard to ignore the trends at this point. Ready or not...here it comes.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Toss the icon. It's trash.

Models are actually trending towards it at H5 wrt TPV strength. Look for yourself

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If we can get a deeper TPV then I may eat my words from earlier, don’t want one to weak otherwise it’s just ruin CAD but not provide enough cold, unless you don’t want ice and want all rain (some do)

 

[LukeBarrette]

Icon has the strongest TPV out of most models, hmmm

Believe it or not, other models have been trending towards the ICON, im finding out that at times the model is really good.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Believe it or not, other models have been trending towards the ICON, im finding out that at times the model is really good.

Seems like it picks up the sneaky little things sometimes, I honestly think it’s just your average model where it can pick things up at times or be a dumpster fire

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Maybe this is doable .. again 120 hours would be great but we have like 24

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

View attachment 75243
Maybe this is doable .. again 120 hours would be great but we have like 24

Hint! Look out on the west coast ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I would be salivating over this trend if it was 120 hours out, now all it can do is trend to a even colder rain or ice

 

[Webberweather53]

I would be salivating over this trend if it was 120 hours out, now all it can do is trend to a even colder rain or ice View attachment 75244

Gonna go w/ colder rain.

 

[ryan1234]

I would be salivating over this trend if it was 120 hours out, now all it can do is trend to a even colder rain or ice View attachment 75244

I mean technically we still have a good 2 days for things to trend farther south. From the beginning of this winter I have always said if we get a storm it's going to sneak up on us at the last minute. Right now I am just looking at trends which keep pushing the ice threat south. Again, I don't think I'd be sleeping on this storm quite yet. I know how much you want your 33 thunder rain. But what about 29 and thunder ZR? Lol.

 

[RBR71]

Euro trend continues problematic for the NW Piedmont.... I've heard @Poimen and @smast16 really like this stuff

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I mean technically we still have a good 2 days for things to trend farther south. From the beginning of this winter I have always said if we get a storm it's going to sneak up on us at the last minute. Right now I am just looking at trends which keep pushing the ice threat south. Again, I don't think I'd be sleeping on this storm quite yet. I know how much you want your 33 thunder rain. But what about 29 and thunder ZR? Lol.

If there’s some ensemble members in the euro suite that have an actual storm track further south to really put us into winter weather .. then I’ll maybe bite at the trend .. but no way in baloney is something going to trend that good inside NAM range ?

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Peasant Euro trending towards King RGEM

 

[Webberweather53]

Here comes an in-situ CAD on the Euro just past day 6

 

[Storm5]

Mississippi does it all over again Thursday

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

When you realize this was suppose to be a retreating Warm front severe weather setup at one Point and the TPV is once again is screwing us over with cold rain/ice........

 

[NCSNOW]

Here comes an in-situ CAD on the Euro just past day 6

Maybe we can ice and frost our way to climo snowfall. BN temp all winter ,AN qpf and we keep fouling off fast balls right down the middle of the plate.

 

[NCSNOW]

Peasant Euro trending towards King RGEM

All hail the Canadians! Germans to!

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Euro trend continues problematic for the NW Piedmont.... I've heard @Poimen and @smast16 really like this stuff

View attachment 75247

So far it’s the only appreciable winter weather we’ve had here this season. Why stop now?

 

[RBR71]

So far it’s the only appreciable winter weather we’ve had here this season. Why stop now?

You win the ice battle, so far I think I'm winning the snow battle..... seems like a role reversal to me. Lol

 

[GaWx]

12Z GFS, which still has a good amount of sleet mixed in, trended somewhat to more snow vs earlier runs at DFW Wednesday. Going to be a tricky forecast! But whatever falls should be almost all sleet or snow.