Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

[Webberweather53]

Fwiw, the 18z 3km NAM is showing a warm nose of ~12°C at KGSO tomorrow morning (max T is 54°F). If it verifies, that would be a record strong warm nose for all 65 KGSO freezing rain soundings I've looked at since 1976. Normally, the warm nose for ZR at KGSO peaks ~+4-6°C, even anything above +8°C is somewhat unusual in its own right, much less 10C lol.

View attachment 75984

The strongest warm nose at KGSO during a ZR event (non-freezing drizzle) I found was +11.4°C at 868mb (18z Feb 11 1994) followed closely by +11.2°C at 850mb (12z Feb 11 1994)

Fwiw, GSO ended up getting ~0.33" of ice in that storm, sounds about right here...

 

[WNC_Fort]

Have a few clouds moving in here. Temps dropping off pretty rapidly.

 

[accu35]

Where are you?

Olive Branch MS

 

[Chazwin]

Fwiw, the 18z 3km NAM is showing a warm nose of ~12°C at KGSO tomorrow morning (max T is 54°F). If it verifies, that would be a record strong warm nose for all 65 KGSO freezing rain soundings I've looked at since 1976. Normally, the warm nose for ZR at KGSO peaks ~+4-6°C, even anything above +8°C is somewhat unusual in its own right, much less 10C lol.

View attachment 75984

What do you think is causing this strong of a warm nose... this doesn’t look like that amped up of a system.

 

[ghost1]

The very light flurries I saw falling about 30 min ago have stopped

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

9" of snow in Pine Bluff,AR today. 7-8" of snow on the road !

 

[Webberweather53]

What do you think is causing this strong of a warm nose... this doesn’t look like that amped up of a system.

There's certainly a sprinkling of the warming background climate + greater moisture fluxes (which translates to greater latent heat release in the mid-levels) that's arguably adding a bit extra to this storm, but it seems synoptically that we just have a very anomalous wave pattern in the CONUS w/ record-cold over the central US and MS valley being followed downstream by a ridge over the SE US. I'd argue that at least 90-95%+ of this is happening due to the weather, the other component probably has some climate influence that may not and probably is not detectable outside the realm of observational and sampling errors, etc

 

[superjames1992]

I'm confident that we'll achieve warning criteria here, but we started the day looking at .50", we're down to .40 on the official forecast and down to .30 on the NWS Blend.

Winter storms never trend well for us.

 

[accu35]

Northwest MS is the chase of the year

 

[NWMSGuy]

Rates are increasing!

 

[Shadypines33]

Tiny (REALLY tiny) flakes falling here off County Line Rd/Hwy 72 in Madison.

 

[HSVweather]

Flurries have started here, should pick up soon. 30 degrees

 

[HSVweather]

Tiny (REALLY tiny) flakes falling here off County Line Rd/Hwy 72 in Madison.

I saw the mPING report close to me and confirmed it just started.

 

[Ethan80963]

Just got an alert from my school we’re closed tomorrow. And looks like some other schools across the northern upstate are starting to close.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Just got an alert from my school. And looks like some other schools across the northern upstate are starting to close.

Yeah lol the WWA was a godsend

 

[olhausen]

Sleet started mixing in and was hoping to avoid that. will cut way down on totals if it persists. It looks like sleet mixes in when the precipitation isn’t as heavy.

 

[Stormlover]

How about 4 plus in an hour!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

HRRR keeps warming

 

[Randomgirl]

Boiling Springs HS has cancelled classes and having an E learning day.

 

[Bannerdude]

Temperature cooling off quickly but worried about the cloud deck that's moved in

42/27