Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

[Myfrotho704_]

The “trending to lower dewpoints” coming in from the NE associated with the wedge keeps offsetting the warmer trends on the HRRR

 

[Avalanche]

I was worried about this one because tv Mets hyped it up and hubby told me to prepare the house and he would fill propane tanks today Now I feel like telling him it’s looking like a cold rain! But again like you say, being so close can’t let guards down just yet.


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Not with the cold dry air nearby.

 

[Jessy89]

I have a temp of 50 degrees currently lol


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[Mitch West]

Time to look at observations like current dew points etc. Looking at the models at this point, I wouldn't say its pointless, but it doesn't mean much at this point. The system starts in under 8 hours.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Might be some loud rumbles of thunder

 

[crecre9]

View attachment 75938
surface wet bulb at1400

That one is old. Here is the 2000z analysis.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Now we have a flash flood watch.

 

[PARSONBROWN]

Won't happen. WAA is substantial. SE Madison county already has some parts at 47 deg.

Don't get jealous because Keel Mountain dont have jack. I have a cabin up there and on Monte sano, still snow monte sano. Nothing Keel mountain

 

[HSVweather]

That one is old. Here is the 2000z analysis.
View attachment 75943

Thanks

 

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[Cary_Snow95]

View attachment 75944 ?

Hrrr pretty much keeps the Precip west of RDU for an extended amount of time

 

[blueheronNC]

Now we have a flash flood watch.

I like how on the NWS maps the flash flood watch takes precedence over a winter weather advisory. Really drives home this "event" threat level for Raleigh.

 

[tucker]

That HRRR warm trend... no frozen precipitation for Chattanooga based on that.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hrrr pretty much keeps the Precip west of RDU for an extended amount of time

Keeps on lowering dewpoints in VA where the original source of drier air is as well

 

[JimRussell]

Don't get jealous because Keel Mountain dont have jack. I have a cabin up there and on Monte sano, still snow monte sano. Nothing Keel mountain

lol who gets jealous over weather anyways? Ain't nothing I/we can do about it? I am just pointing out how the WAA is already pushing itself through Madison county. We are going to have a cold rain again most likely, maybe some surprises.

 

[accu35]

Cant tell if that's thundersnow or someone up on the 3rd floor getting it on

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol I remember when winter storm setups started at 35/20 not 47/25

 

[FallsLake]

RAH short term discussion not out, but here is the Aviation (that always give a little bit of info):
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 108 PM Wednesday...

High confidence in VFR conditions to start the TAF period. MVFR
ceilings across southeastern South Carolina will move northward this
evening and should reach FAY by 00Z and all other sites between 02-
03Z. Not much change in the forecast as we are still expecting IFR
conditions after 06Z as precipitation overspreads the region.
Freezing rain is expected at GSO/INT/RDU, with possible sleet mixed
in only briefly at GSO/INT. With temperatures forecast to be at or
below freezing over the Triad and Triangle through 18Z, have only
freezing rain at GSO/INT/RDU. There looks to be a period of moderate
freezing rain at GSO/INT between 10 and 15Z with the axis of
heaviest precipitation. Precipitation should be all rain at RWI and
FAY, though cannot rule out a brief period of freezing rain at RWI
prior to 12Z given latest forecast soundings.

 

[Avalanche]

lol who gets jealous over weather anyways? Ain't nothing I/we can do about it? I am just pointing out how the WAA is already pushing itself through Madison county. We are going to have a cold rain again most likely, maybe some surprises.

I Get Jealous!!! Me wants frozen!!

 

[VegasEagle]

Jason simpson seems to think Monte Sano will have significant icing and snow per facebook update. Looks like I will head back up there tonight and be sledding my ass off

I was just up there.