Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

[JimRussell]

I feel like this will be exactly like the last system for the Huntsville area. WAA will take over and be a cold rain.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

18z hrrr initialized 2 degrees lower for dews than forecasted 1 hr out

 

[Myfrotho704_]

HRRR bringing in cloud cover earlier is warming things up earlier on

 

[Brick Tamland]

View attachment 75908

I'm expecting mostly rain here like it's been 99% of the time this winter. Maybe a tenth of an inch of ice on the trees.

 

[Metwannabe]

I'm expecting mostly rain here like it's been 99% of the time this winter. Maybe a tenth of an inch of ice on the trees.

Well that's the current forecast so...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

What I personally don’t like is lower dewpoints to our NE that’s going to be advected into CAD regions later, HRRR keeps lowering them up in that region towards go time

 

[Stormlover]

 

[Brick Tamland]

Well that's the current forecast so...

And forecasts are sometimes wrong. The models are showing more, but just saying I don't expect much this way. The forecasts are always going to be lower than what the models show anyway. That's just the name of the game.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

What I personally don’t like is lower dewpoints to our NE that’s going to be advected into CAD regions later, HRRR keeps lowering them up in that region towards go time

For example, forget what’s happening here, what we should be watching is our “source” region

 

[Avalanche]

Dont laugh, okay go ahead, but TWC has the triangle out of the game for ice accrual. Their future radar show some fzrn, but accrual map no. It ends in a line from Asheboro to Burlington. Notta east and south of there.

 

[cridolphi]

View attachment 75929

Interesting, I am right in the center of that.

 

[Avalanche]

45/26 at RDU now . Sunny as heck , when the wind is calm feels warm .

Its my story, sad but true. Ice accrual will be difficult. A lot of heat to release under a blanket tonight.

 

[Avalanche]

Curious if that cold dry feed can keep cloud cover limited to cirrus, leaving a little heat release tonight before low level base moves in??

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Dont laugh, okay go ahead, but TWC has the triangle out of the game for ice accrual. Their future radar show some fzrn, but accrual map no. It ends in a line from Asheboro to Burlington. Notta east and south of there.

I would take it with a grain of salt. Their maps are not always the most accurate.

 

[Avalanche]

I would take it with a grain of salt. Their maps are not always the most accurate.

If theyre right we wont need a grain of salt.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Interesting that the hrrr keeps the main band of Precip confined to the nw Piedmont

 

[Malloy0722]

If theyre right we wont need a grain of salt.

Now that's funny. Thanks!?????

 

[accu35]

Snow coming down heavy

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Might hit 50 degrees lol