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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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Canceling winter on 1/1 classic

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For the record I officially haven't punted Feb yet. But it's 4th down and I have a decision to make in about 2 weeks.

But at the moment I really I don't see much hope. But that's my opinion. We have a warm pool over the Maritime continent. A strong MJO in the warm phases and looking like it may want to stall there and loop. The big Pacific ridge that's solid as a rock on all ensembles holding strong. No sign of Atlantic blocking (what a shocker) and no sign of a SSWE to weaken a record strong PV. What else could possibly be against us?

I know some will say Jan 2000 and others were like this. And that's a fair point. But that's an exception not the rule most likely.
 

tramadoc

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I remember 79-80 very well. SE was hammered. Elizabeth City NC received 20 inches of snow with one event. Norfolk VA, were I worked as a an observer at the Naval Air Station, was warm into January. The fist storm hit on January 7th. About 17 inches. We had several 5-7 events through February. The big one hit March 3-6, with over 20 inches. Winds gusted over 50mph, visibilities dropped to zero in heavy snow and blowing snow. Drifts were the size of department stores.
We got 28” from the March 3rd event. There were also one or two events in February 1980 as well. I lived in Camden County (south end) and I was in fifth grade.
 
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Well fellow college FB fans; who will be the next SEC EAST team to win national title? You think it will be Florida, Georgia, or gulp, Tennessee? I think we can rule out UK, Candy, South Carolina, and MIzzou. None of those 4 will win FB national title in our lifetime. Of course, at this juncture, I'm not sure any SEC east team will win another title in our lifetime. I'm going to guess it will be UF, and it will happen within about 5 years.
Tennessee
 
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I'd like to be able to go back 20 years with today's technology and see what the long range actually looked like going into Jan. 2000. Something tells me it wouldn't be nearly as ugly as it looks now going forward and we'd see a way out. I literally can't find anything positive at all going forward. NOTHING!
 

cd2play

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I'd like to be able to go back 20 years with today's technology and see what the long range actually looked like going into Jan. 2000. Something tells me it wouldn't be nearly as ugly as it looks now going forward and we'd see a way out. I literally can't find anything positive at all going forward. NOTHING!
There's always next year. Or is there? :(
 
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There's always next year. Or is there? :(
Who knows? If it really is caused by the warming around the Maritime continent and this is MJO driven, then yeah this is possibly a long term thing. Not saying every year will be but this will be most common.

But, as HM pointed out in his tweet, once you think you've identified a cause it flips. History has shown -NAO's are more prevalent in solar minimums. Yet here we are. 10 years now without blocking there in winter. I'm not sure but that's got to be a record. So not sure analogs are even useful anymore.
 

olhausen

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If this is all that's left for our weather anymore, I may think about moving within the not too distant future. I'm NOT spending the rest of my life following 6+ months of sweltering in the 90s along with nothing but non-existent winters.
The one thing I hate about Tennessee is the humidity in the summer. No way I could live any further south then where I live now. If possible I would prefer a climate such as Indianapolis, Cincinnati or Columbus Ohio. Somewhere that is likely to get at least two to three events of 2-4 inches of snow in a bad winter.
 

Poimen

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If this is all that's left for our weather anymore, I may think about moving within the not too distant future. I'm NOT spending the rest of my life following 6+ months of sweltering in the 90s along with nothing but non-existent winters.
Who would have ever thunk it—people moving north! GW for the win.
 
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Spent the bulk of the day taking Christmas decorations down outside and cleaning up the inside of my house. Took the tree out to the fire pit where I will be setting it ablaze later tonight. I did all of this with basketball shorts and a t-shirt on..and honestly, I’m not mad about it. I saw snow on top of Newfound Gap in early December so I can’t complain. Hopefully you guys get to see some of that white stuff in mid February 🤞🏽
 
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I think a cool experiment would be to artificially cool SST’s to see if we can actually control various teleconnections. You could start on a small scale as to not drastically destroy the natural order, but theoretically you could control every aspect of the weather.
 
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