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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Obviously this is not snow, but is the 3k showing something frozen falling for these areas in SC/GA or is this just a bad algorithm?
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We get NAMed, multiple times per year. I wouldn't rule out some spotty sleet or glaze in some of the fringe areas there. There will be pockets of higher amounts. But the TT site doesn't know zr from a hole in the ground when it's computing snow maps. Not sure why they can't get that fixed over there. Doesn't seem like rocket science.
 
I don't think I've seen a full-fledged ice storm since the late 90s when I was in high school and living in Gainesville Georgia.. the 12 years I lived in Alabama we had no ice storms at all.. so far in the Carolinas for the past year-and-a-half I've seen nothing.
 
Bham 99 said:
I don't think I've seen a full-fledged ice storm since the late 90s when I was in high school and living in Gainesville Georgia.. the 12 years I lived in Alabama we had no ice storms at all.. so far in the Carolinas for the past year-and-a-half I've seen nothing.
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All we had in the 90s were ice storms . I remember three really bad ones


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GaWx said:
“Models continue to struggle beyond 5-6 days lead, with the operational models seeing the largest change from yesterday’s 12z run to this morning’s 0z in the 6-10 Day period. The GFS OP gained ~20 GWHDDs, while the Euro OP gained ~14 GWHDDs. The Maxar forecast gained +7.1 GWHDDs over the course of the next 15 days, and +6.1 GWHDDs of the cold change occurred in the 6-10 Day period. There is still room for additional model volatility, and this is echoed by the widening spread of solutions among members of the Euro EN in the Midwest. In St. Louis, the spread among members increases to more than 20° for the average temperatures on Day 7 and is 35° (range from 9°-44°) on Day 8. Similar spreads are in Chicago...”

“The spread is not only wide within the Euro EN, but sizable differences between models also exists. About 12 GWHDDs separate the colder GFS EN from its Euro counterpart. The upper air maps below show where the difference between models originates. The Alaska region will be the area to watch in future model runs, as the colder GFS EN has more ridging here and downstream south displacement of the polar vortex. Alternatively, the Euro EN has more troughing near Alaska and a faster shift warmer from west to central North America under a stronger Pacific influence.” from Maxar
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The models are in a state of chaos!

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