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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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NoSnowATL said:
So nothing for SC, Ga or Bama? I don’t like him. I guess we are out of his viewing Area.


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Remember last December when JB was forecasting our big storm to trend North. How did that turn out :rolleyes:. Consider yourself lucky that death hasn’t kissed you yet. Lol.
 
WxWatch said:
After spending time looking over data and coming up with thoughts I have came up with a prediction. This is not a forecast, it is a prediction which this prediction has a good chance at verifying. I have not backed down for days now. Keep in mind, I use a blend of models (not just one, or two, or three) to generate my predictions.

Using a blend of the Euro, GFS, CMC and the GEFS/EPS this is what I have came up with (map below) I think the Euro is 24 hours too slow with the storm system. So, instead of the low developing Wednesday into Thursday, I think the storm system will begin to develop Tuesday and track along the Gulf coast and out along the southeastern coast by dawn Wednesday. Why? because the polar and STJ is going to converge Tuesday afternoon/evening, at that point, the low pressure will develop quickly and start tracking along the fast moving jet streak over night Tuesday into Wednesday. At the time of the convergence, overrunning is possible Tuesday evening before the low kicks out and rides along the fast moving jet.

The low pressure system will likely be a fast mover, due to the convergence of the polar and sub-tropical jet, thus will increase jet streak winds high as 140kts. Even though, the low pressure system will likely be a fast mover, I do think it will bring tremendous amounts of snow totals because there will be strong convection in the upper-levels. The strong convection would be caused by, of course strong vertical motion due to the convergence of the polar and STJ. Which of course, strong convection would mean high QPF amounts. Not only that, the cold air mass will be immensely deep, colder it is, the higher the snow ratios will be.

More about the map, a mesoscale high pressure may build over the northeastern US overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. For area's east of the mountains, p-type will greatly depend on how much WAA will take place. But, overall, I think this system will bring mostly snow, and heavy snow at that.

View attachment 27002

Euro showing high QPF levels, this would be a tremendous amount of snow. Again, the reason of high QPF levels is due to the strong vertical motion in the upper level that will induce strong convection cause by the convergence of the polar and STJ.

View attachment 27003



View attachment 27004


Anyone that has access to the upper-levels from the Euro, such as the jet stream winds, vort, please add. We need to see what's going on with the jet streams/vort on the Euro. Also, due the polar and STJ convergence, I think the storm system would be stronger than modeled on the Euro.
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CyclonicFury said:
I think living in the Midwest has made SoutheastRidge too optimistic. Those snow totals for the southeast are extremely rare.
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Oh no doubt. Those are '93 numbers there, hence my little giffy posts.

I am one of the biggest snow weenies around but I know that ain't happening. Unfortunately I no very little to post in the real threads so I just post my little gifs and sarcastic thoughts here in the whamby thread.

This is all in good fun and mean no disrespect to WxWatch or anyone else. They are the reason I come here and learn, I can only offer a little fun and distraction to the sometime frustrating hunt for snow in the SE.
 
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