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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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Don Sutherland has the mjo in phase 4, which is totally different than the RMM diagram. He must be going by hovmoller charts or satellite.
 
2 years ago about this time
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Over the next week while baking in the 70s, one or both of the models will show a big dog storm within the 10-15 range
 
(Way to) Early prediction: towards the end of that first week in January that big vortex digs south into southeastern Canada and we see a barrage of clippers with some phaser opportunity with a big southern wave entering Baja..pattern looking ripe..today ? 0DECE5B9-E86B-45AC-864E-390AFC515C4F.png
 
The eps webber posted earlier isnt as enthusiastic about the ridge over alaska like the gefs is but if it can build the ridge , it should bring the fridge. JB favorite saying.
 
I hope the eps isn't delaying the pattern shift but the gefs is all in!! I wanted to add that i would take a favorable Pacific over Atlantic anytime. There is alot of cold air over Alaska and if we can get just enough ridging, we should all be happy. Webber mentioned this earlier that it's difficult to get the epo and nao to go in tandem to be negative, and thats why i said we would have more cold air to work with, since the TPV is too far north currently.
 
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pcbjr said:
hate to say it, but ... models are a look at what may happen ... they bring nothing themselves, except a sneak preview of "maybe" ... and a lot of anxiety if taken literally ... o_O
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Fake news, I'm still digging out from over 70 inches of model snow this year.
 
Broken024 said:
Fake news, I'm still digging out from over 70 inches of model snow this year.
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I was supposed to have 20 inches of snow today! ... Remember, I was in the bull's-eye on that epic model run. Now, let's say last Summer I showed you today's storm precip map (without showing temps), and told you that this would be on the first day of winter. You would say that's got to be a big time winter storm. Wrong again.
 
CADEffect said:
What sucks the most is if there was a decent cold air source this storm would be epic in South Carolina/Georgia.
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If there were a decent cold source, this storm would very likely not be nearly as wet since colder air doesn't hold as much moisture. This storm is progged to produce 3-6"+ over much of central and south SC/GA. I can't find a single snowstorm in our history that produced near that in liquid equivalent although I have found near 2".
 
ForsythSnow said:
More snow in the GOMEX than in RDU on member 18? There's a run for you Phil. Still nice to see this many members with snow The EPS seems to be a little less excited and more Upper South oriented such as TN and the apps versus I-20 or so.
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Member 3 please ??
 
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