NoSnowATL
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What normally happens is that the cold false starts most of the winter. Sort of has become a predictable pattern over the last few years. This year, we've kinda had the opposite up till now. This coming week, that appears to have changed. Now, we're back to waiting for the cold pattern to show up in the LR. And every couple of days, the LR flips back to a hostile or semi-hostile pattern...that is, if you're looking for a cold and snowy one. Would be unwise to suggest that a winter storm couldn't happen, but it's hard not to be at least a little concerned that a really bad Pacific keeps showing up, especially given the trends of recent winters and especially when we're on the cusp of a mild pattern setting in, at least for a little while.
It's a lot easier to dismiss the hostile looking pattern in the LR when you're currently getting cold and snow or when you're on the cusp of a cold and snowy pattern over the next week or so. But if the next two weeks are toast, and we start pushing the PV up into or north of AK, then we've lost the heart of winter, and we're waiting for it to start down the line. That feels familiar.
Dude a hostile Pac has been showing for a week or more now. The semi good runs were short lived. Even without the PV directly over AK it still wasn't good. Isn't it about looking at trends? It's been way more bad runs than good runs unless you actually believe the GFS. I'll be positive on here when it's actually something to be positive about. Can it snow in a bad pattern? Sure can. My rants are about the pattern and you can't polish a turd no matter how hard you try.I swear the PV slips into Alaska for one run and it’s a guaranteed winter cancel and torch for us ... give me a break guys we’re better than this .. I know we’re not all that doom gloom guy always posting on here ... let’s have some reason and know one model run of a trash set of models that haven’t been doing well in medium and long range shouldn’t detour us into a frenzy ..
Remember, lower heights don’t always = ColdSee nothing turdy about this
GFS= red flagBut we got there anyway. Somehow..even with that big ridge nudging into east Texas..trough came in at a sketchy angle..red flagView attachment 28769
It’s torch time!It’s Bo time View attachment 28765
Looks good if you ignore the fact it's a 12 day op run of the GFS. ??See nothing turdy about this
??Read less, post more!
@Nick_boynton_ oops!GEFS.
12z yesterday vs today’s #oops
Must just be another bad run.
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Silver lining: Alaska is part of the United States so at least it’s not a US super mega torch
When that big East coast ridge tent goes up, Seattle is going to get wrecked! Again
Nothing saying torch here .. let’s see how things shape up I say we take a break from models and come back a day after Christmas to see where we stand ... we’re still 10 days away from January 1st ... no models have been right in the ensembles or operational range at 10 days I’m not worried@Nick_boynton_ oops!
Must just be another bad run.
But that’s why we’re in the whamby thread, right?But that's how boards work now! It's all about who can cancel winter first based on a model run and who can post the best 1 liner. Heaven forbid we just let things play out for better or worse
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Now taking a break I can agree with. I'm sure a snow threat will show up eventually. It usually does. But the general pattern sucks as depicted now.Nothing saying torch here .. let’s see how things shape up I say we take a break from models and come back a day after Christmas to see where we stand ... we’re still 10 days away from January 1st ... no models have been right in the ensembles or operational range at 10 days I’m not worried
☝?This guy gets it! Merry torchmas to you too!Merry Torchmas!!
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We generally don't start threads for rain storms. ?Don’t worry guys, I’m moving into my new house on 1/31/20. It will definitely be a storm that day to F everything up. Go ahead and start the thread .
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Fear not, for the next several years the pattern will be the same way.Fellas I want snow just as much as anyone on this board. I assure you that. I apologize for all my negativity, but the way the pattern has been for the last several years make it impossible for me to be anything but negative.
Oh I'm sure. No reason to think otherwise. We're wasting the solar minimum years too which usually have good blocking. Just imagine how bad it'll get when the sun wakes up again.Fear not, for the next several years the pattern will be the same way.
Webber roasted timmer Omgd
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Link?
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Yikes..it can’t stay there forever, can it?Geez...would suck to be in Alaska over the next couple of weeks
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Geez...would suck to be in Alaska over the next couple of weeks
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ah f me this game sucks@Broken024 winter sucks again, you can come back !!! New day, new ---- !!!!
We did for this dud todayWe generally don't start threads for rain storms. ?
Got to build the AK snow cover, to get our wedges right!