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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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Rain Cold said:
What normally happens is that the cold false starts most of the winter. Sort of has become a predictable pattern over the last few years. This year, we've kinda had the opposite up till now. This coming week, that appears to have changed. Now, we're back to waiting for the cold pattern to show up in the LR. And every couple of days, the LR flips back to a hostile or semi-hostile pattern...that is, if you're looking for a cold and snowy one. Would be unwise to suggest that a winter storm couldn't happen, but it's hard not to be at least a little concerned that a really bad Pacific keeps showing up, especially given the trends of recent winters and especially when we're on the cusp of a mild pattern setting in, at least for a little while.

It's a lot easier to dismiss the hostile looking pattern in the LR when you're currently getting cold and snow or when you're on the cusp of a cold and snowy pattern over the next week or so. But if the next two weeks are toast, and we start pushing the PV up into or north of AK, then we've lost the heart of winter, and we're waiting for it to start down the line. That feels familiar.
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Agreed but you better....

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Some people can’t handle the ...

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Nick_boynton_ said:
I swear the PV slips into Alaska for one run and it’s a guaranteed winter cancel and torch for us ... give me a break guys we’re better than this .. I know we’re not all that doom gloom guy always posting on here ... let’s have some reason and know one model run of a trash set of models that haven’t been doing well in medium and long range shouldn’t detour us into a frenzy ..
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Dude a hostile Pac has been showing for a week or more now. The semi good runs were short lived. Even without the PV directly over AK it still wasn't good. Isn't it about looking at trends? It's been way more bad runs than good runs unless you actually believe the GFS. I'll be positive on here when it's actually something to be positive about. Can it snow in a bad pattern? Sure can. My rants are about the pattern and you can't polish a turd no matter how hard you try.
 
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Snowless & Grumpy said:
@Nick_boynton_ oops!
Must just be another bad run.
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Nothing saying torch here .. let’s see how things shape up I say we take a break from models and come back a day after Christmas to see where we stand ... we’re still 10 days away from January 1st ... no models have been right in the ensembles or operational range at 10 days I’m not worried
 
SD said:
But that's how boards work now! It's all about who can cancel winter first based on a model run and who can post the best 1 liner. Heaven forbid we just let things play out for better or worse

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But that’s why we’re in the whamby thread, right? :)
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Nothing saying torch here .. let’s see how things shape up I say we take a break from models and come back a day after Christmas to see where we stand ... we’re still 10 days away from January 1st ... no models have been right in the ensembles or operational range at 10 days I’m not worried
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Now taking a break I can agree with. I'm sure a snow threat will show up eventually. It usually does. But the general pattern sucks as depicted now.
 
Fellas I want snow just as much as anyone on this board. I assure you that. I apologize for all my negativity, but the way the pattern has been for the last several years make it impossible for me to be anything but negative.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Fellas I want snow just as much as anyone on this board. I assure you that. I apologize for all my negativity, but the way the pattern has been for the last several years make it impossible for me to be anything but negative.
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Fear not, for the next several years the pattern will be the same way.
 
I swear every other day for the last month has either been winter cancel or winter on. People keep referencing last year and how it’s going to be the same this year. Every winter is different and very few play out the exact same for the USA as a whole. Add to the fact that since we get so little snow each year it will only take one storm to change the whole outlook on any given winter. We also should not torture ourselves in December since it rarely snows more then a dusting during this month each year. Any southeast city that has had accumulating snow recently in December probably won’t see it happen again for at least a decade or so. I don’t know why but it still shocks me at how many people start canceling winter as soon as the first cold front starts to exit the building. I don’t care what the models show as not one of us knows Exactly what will happen between now and the 2nd week of March. And of course mid March is truly when you should be waving the white flag on winter, not in November or December.
 
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