Pattern Failbruary Thread

[NickyBGuarantee]

Euro was about to go for round 2 at the end of its run

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

We still have a week of 70s ahead of us associated with a SER, other then a wedge day on Thursday, and this month looks to be AN

if the front speeds up even slightly most of us in the piedmont would stay below 70 Thursday and Friday but overall quite an impressive warm week ahead of us for February standards!

 

[SD]

over it. When ??View attachment 114085

May

 

[SD]

Eps isn't that impressive maybe 5 that support the op

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

May

GF booked us a flight and condo for Destin in mid April so I may get a head start on it being that far south.

 

[SD]

18z icon is def a step toward the 12z euro with the stronger slower lead wave

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

18z icon is def a step toward the 12z euro with the stronger slower lead wave

For sure. That looks really good.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

18z Gfs still says hell no! Boundary layer up in flames! But keeps the significant cold shot after. Skill scores still make me want to treat the Gfs like a child and I’ll toss due to Southern WX rules regarding 18z

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

18Z ENS and control looked quite a bit colder in regards to the weekend threat.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

GFS coming in much further south.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Far more interested in this look after if we can sneak some Pacific energy with the departing TPV, since it’s basically our 50/50 or confluence

 

[Ollie Williams]

It’s important that we get a phase to determine whether or not this is rain or snow. A comparison between the 00z GFS and 12z Euro

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Far more interested in this look after if we can sneak some Pacific energy with the departing TPV, since it’s basically our 50/50 or confluence View attachment 114112

Yeah Gfs has the same system the euro did for round 2 just slight variations due to round 1 differences

 

[GaWx]

It is no wonder why the Feb and March threads have been so quiet for 5 hours: the 0Z GEFS, Euro, EPS, CMC, and GEPS all are significantly warmer/less cold and much less wintry vs 12Z for days 6+. Hopefully they'll switch back by 12Z today but not holding my breath.

Example: Remember those GFS and Euro runs giving a freeze well down into FL 3/1? Gone and no longer even close.

 

[GaWx]

Further to the above in pictures about how much warmer the 0Z runs were: these are all change maps vs the 12Z runs for the 6-10 day:

 

[GaWx]

6Z GFS says “what major Arctic outbreak”?

 

[GaWx]

6Z GEFS continues the warming/less cold trend:

This was the quite cold 12Z:




This is the far less cold 6Z:




This is how much warmer the 6Z is vs the 18Z:

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This cold headfake is looking like the biggest since February 2021

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Womp

 

[LickWx]

WompView attachment 114139

I went to bed to 43/21 next week woke up nothing below 50 and a return to 60s mid week next week and still chancing 80 Friday. Quite the change . Wonder what changed , because it happened so suddenly on all the models .