Pattern Failbruary Thread

[NickyBGuarantee]

This is not a blowtorch. Above average sure.. if we saw consistent mid-upper 70s days that would be a blow torch like in December. This is average to a little above average temps. Low humidity as well so no complaints really since it’s almost March and spring time. Things should be getting warmer. Not good for us cold lovers but you can’t fight where we live.. we had our fun

 

[GaWx]

View attachment 114178
This is not a blowtorch. Above average sure.. if we saw consistent mid-upper 70s days that would be a blow torch like in December. This is average to a little above average temps. Low humidity as well so no complaints really since it’s almost March and spring time. Things should be getting warmer. Not good for us cold lovers but you can’t fight where we live.. we had our fun

Hopefully the cooler 12Z vs 6Z GFS suite at least means it at least won’t warm any further than the 6Z. Hopefully!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 114178
This is not a blowtorch. Above average sure.. if we saw consistent mid-upper 70s days that would be a blow torch like in December. This is average to a little above average temps. Low humidity as well so no complaints really since it’s almost March and spring time. Things should be getting warmer. Not good for us cold lovers but you can’t fight where we live.. we had our fun

Lots of potential to turn those 60s into 70s next weekend, gradient patterns typically are really warm or really cool

 

[olhausen]

It's been the trend this year even in January to have these arctic outbreaks in the midrange not verify. Looks like I will not have a single reading in the teens this winter.

The whole month of January was one big arctic outbreak.

 

[olhausen]

The gfs is trying for Saturday night here. Temps way too boarder line and the 540 line is in Kentucky when this run is showing snow falling. I’ll take wet snow falling that doesn’t stick though if that’s all Mother Nature will give me.

 

[snowvol]

The gfs is trying for Saturday night here. Temps way too boarder line and the 540 line is in Kentucky when this run is showing snow falling. I’ll take wet snow falling that doesn’t stick though if that’s all Mother Nature will give me.
View attachment 114185View attachment 114184

Yep that track would put us in the best of the precip for sure. This is one of these that could be a mainly cold rain or a decent surprise snow. Temps just a degree or 2 either way will make a big difference for us. I think this track looks possible, Kentucky-Tennessee border counties could get in on some action. Maybe we will get a little lucky here and things fall just right.

 

[GaWx]

The sucky trends away from the big cold of yesterday’s runs continue with the 12Z Euro:

12Z Euro:


0Z Euro:


Yesterday’s 12Z EPS is like night and day compared to todays 12Z Euro:

 

[BelmontWX79]

The whole month of January was one big arctic outbreak.

Not really. Has it been cold and below normal? Yes. But the brutal cold shots that have showed up (aka the Barney specials) have not come to pass.

 

[SD]

The whole month of January was one big arctic outbreak.

No kidding looks like after the 2 warm days to start rdu was -4 for the rest of the month and -6 for the last 18 days

 

[GaWx]

Warmer 12Z Euro vs 0Z Euro continues:


The 0Z Euro was this much warmer than yesterday’s 12Z Euro:


The result is a mild 12Z Euro, which will make some folks quite happy:

 

[SD]

Warmer 12Z Euro vs 0Z Euro continues:
View attachment 114192

The 0Z Euro was this much warmer than yesterday’s 12Z Euro:
View attachment 114193

The result is a mild 12Z Euro, which will make some folks quite happy:
View attachment 114194

Models overamplifying a cold shot in an unsupportive background state. Not surprising

 

[GaWx]

Models overamplifying a cold shot in an unsupportive background state. Not surprising

And the 12Z EPS joins the warmer party:

12Z EPS vs 0Z EPS:


0Z EPS vs yesterday’s 12Z EPS:


12Z EPS anomalies:

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro has warmed up 30F+ in some spots compared to yesterday’s 12z run, incredible ?

 

[EmersonGA]

Not to go all birdman but I've seen two huge flocks of Sandhill cranes heading north. That usually means winter is over.

 

[GaWx]

Euro has warmed up 30F+ in some spots compared to yesterday’s 12z run, incredible ?View attachment 114205View attachment 114206View attachment 114207View attachment 114204

The ultimate model tease! As bad a tease from cold to mild as any in my recent memory.

 

[Delta Thunder]

The ultimate model tease! As bad a tease from cold to mild as any in my recent memory.

Yes, Indeed. And the NBM held a mild look through it all pretty well.

 

[LickWx]

73/58 at RDU.

 

[Brent]

Thunder ice?

 

[BufordWX]

This is some cold sleet.

 

[Brent]

This is some cold sleet.View attachment 114213

Yeah with temps around 20 probably at best it's gonna stick to everything