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Pattern Failbruary Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Not that much difference in the GFS. 
HSVweather
Member
Considering the GFS's record at H5 5-6 days out, I'm not that intrigued.
whatalife
Moderator
Well this is going to suck being in the bull’s-eye 5-6 days out. ?
Dang even Pensacola gets in the action!
Does that mean you want to start the thread?
Anyway, this goes to show that if we can just get the moisture and cold to better meet up during this prime time climo period of mid Feb, we may get something big! We have the +PNA and prime climo on our side at least.
Broken024
Member
??
I'll take that and go into Spring. That said not far from a much bigger bomb.
Stephenb888
Member
Crazy thing is seeing this under 7 days, we all would be getting really excited if this was the good old days… but now things are so strange. Idk if I’d even feel comfortable 2 days out with this look anymore.
griteater
Member
GFS wave pass is as good as we can do in this setup me thinks. The initial southern stream piece moving NE out of the gulf is likely to be too warm (much like today), but a snowier version of last weekend’s storm with the northern stream dropping down would be the high bar.
Downeastnc
Member
Pretty strong signal for winter weather on Valentines day.....most models have the storm to some degree. Only 7 days or so away as well.....
rburrel2
Member
Crazy the GFS just spat out a solution that's way better than any of it's ensemble members have shown for this storm. 00z Ukmet looks pretty similar too, but not quite as cutoff/amped. fingers crossed some of the ensemble members start jumping on board tonight.
CMC although was a miss was violently close and a much better look from its 12z run
These would be some dynamic snow squalls imbedded .. fun stuff and in the mid 20s during the peak 
griteater
Member
UKMet was indeed similar to the GFS, just not as deep with the trough. UKMet has 558 height line in N FL while GFS has 552 ht line there. UKMet was a touch deeper this run though
Clem282340
Member
What does the gefs looking like for this storm
rburrel2
Member
GEFS is a slight improvement on the mean snowfall map. Still not very impressed with this system though. One or two members are similar to the Op, the rest are weaker or hang the energy back .
Still almost all are within spitting distance of a bigger storm just some missed phasing and stuff that clearly won’t be worked out at this range .. love seeing the pieces all on the board though