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Pattern Failbruary Thread

The good thing is the models (Ukmet,CMC,ICON,GFS) seem to have converged much closer together on the evolution of the system. And the edge of those goal posts of that evolution include the chance for a major winter storm for us. Even the center of the goal posts produce a decent event for some people on the board.

Would be really, really huge tonight if the Euro could spit out a GFS-like solution.
 
Looks like the Ukie is leaning toward the GFS in the early going. Not as amped, and, of course, it doesn't yet go out to the time frame where the GFS is walloping folks in this neck of the woods. Think of it as what could be ... and wait until things settle out. But it's hard to sleep when the model plants this on your doorstep.
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Keep this in mind: ATL’s most prime big SN/IP climo back to 1879 based on number of storms concentrated in one week is 2/10-16 with 9 major storms. This storm on the 0Z GFS is progged to hit ATL smack dab in the middle of that period (2/13). At ATL and much of the SE, a +PNA is one of the most favorable, if not the most favorable index, for a big one (back to 1950, the start of that daily stat). These don’t necessarily mean there will be a storm at all, but they’re encouraging to keep in mind for the chances.

Other big storms during that week at ATL include 1934, 2010, and 2014 among others. 1934 is a similar ENSO analog by the way.
 
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Maybe, just maybe instead of a “Failbruary” we can have a “Triumphbruary”. Yes, I googled to find the best opposite of “fail” here. It’s a reach I know...


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Several GEFS members picking up on the possibility gives me more hope than I originally had. We also tend to have our best snows on the heels of an upcoming pattern change as well. One last hooray before the switch to more warmth.
 
iGRXY said:
Several GEFS members picking up on the possibility gives me more hope than I originally had. We also tend to have our best snows on the heels of an upcoming pattern change as well. One last hooray before the switch to more warmth.
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I personally would rather have the euro and eps on our side. I haven’t seen one EPS post on here.
 
SNOWMANN said:
Looking better and something I've noticed over the years is there seems to be storms on or about specific dates throughout winter like the Jan 15-20 and always around Valentine's day something I've been wanting to talk with our bookkeeper Larry about ?
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I smell a new thread soon. The W SE is already being threatened by this in only 4 days (2/12) and the E SE in only 5 days (2/13).

This storm is threatening ATL on 2/13. ATL has had a whopping NINE major SN/IP within 3 days of 2/13 making it the most concentrated major SN/IP climo of the entire winter:

1) 2/12-13/2014: cold neutral ENSO/ -1.1 PNA/+0.8 NAO/+0.9 AO/MJO COD

2) 2/12/2010: waning strong El Nino/+0.7 PNA/-1.0 NAO/-4.8 AO/MJO phase 8

3) 2/15/1958: strong El Nino/+1.2 PNA/-0.2 NAO/-1.9 AO

4) 2/10/1934: waning moderate La Nina similar to now

5) 2/14-15/1902: cold neutral ENSO

6) 2/11-12/1899: weak La Nina

7) 2/15-16/1895: waning weak La Nina

8) 2/11-12/1895: waning weak La Nina

9) 2/15/1885: waning weak El Nino

**And these are just the big storms as there are plenty of not as big events also during this period.
 
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GaWx said:
I smell a new thread soon. The W SE is already being threatened by this in only 4 days (2/12) and the E SE in only 5 days (2/13).

This storm is threatening ATL on 2/13. ATL has had a whopping NINE major SN/IP within 3 days of 2/13 making it the most concentrated major SN/IP climo of the entire winter:

1) 2/12-13/2014: cold neutral ENSO/ -1.1 PNA/+0.8 NAO/+0.9 AO/MJO COD

2) 2/12/2010: waning strong El Nino/+0.7 PNA/-1.0 NAO/-4.8 AO/MJO phase 8

3) 2/15/1958: strong El Nino/+1.2 PNA/-0.2 NAO/-1.9 AO

4) 2/10/1934: waning moderate La Nina

5) 2/14-15/1902: cold neutral ENSO

6) 2/11-12/1899: weak La Nina

7) 2/15-16/1895: waning weak La Nina

8) 2/11-12/1895: waning weak La Nina

9) 2/15/1885: waning weak El Nino
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Would you not want to see the EPS on board before we start a thread?
 
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